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Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock

Alcoa Corp Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Alcoa Corp (AA): The American Aluminum Giant Betting on Green Energy's Multi-Trillion Dollar Future

When William F. Oplinger became CEO of Alcoa Corp in 2023, he inherited a 135-year-old aluminum legacy facing a pivotal moment. The company that once dominated the global aluminum industry now finds itself at the center of a massive industrial transformation. Every electric vehicle requires 50% more aluminum than traditional cars. Every solar panel installation demands lightweight aluminum frames. Every wind turbine needs corrosion-resistant aluminum components. As the world races toward electrification, Alcoa's bauxite mines and smelting operations have evolved from commodity producers into critical suppliers for the green economy. With operations spanning Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States, Oplinger is positioning Alcoa to capture what analysts estimate could be a $200 billion market opportunity in low-carbon aluminum by 2030.

52-Week Range

$47.29 - $21.38

-21.61% from high · +73.39% from low

Avg Daily Volume

8,254,490

20-day average

100-day avg: 6,437,674

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

8.78

Below market average

Forward P/E

13.59

Earnings expected to decline

PEG Ratio

-0.29

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

1.47

EV/EBITDA

4.68

EPS (TTM)

$4.24

Price to Sales

0.75

Beta

2.20

More volatile than market

How is AA valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Alcoa Corp trades at a P/E ratio of 8.78, which is below the market average of approximately 20. This lower valuation could indicate the market has modest growth expectations, or it might represent an undervalued opportunity if the fundamentals are strong. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 13.59 is higher than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to decline over the next year. The PEG ratio of -0.29 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate.
What is AA's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 2.20, Alcoa Corp is significantly more volatile than the market. For every 10% market move, this stock tends to move 22% in the same direction. Higher beta stocks offer greater potential returns but with increased risk. The price-to-book ratio of 1.47 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

7.86%

Operating Margin

4.41%

EBITDA

$2.27B

Return on Equity

17.20%

Return on Assets

7.04%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

3.90%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

463.60%

How profitable and efficient is AA's business model?
Alcoa Corp achieves a profit margin of 7.86%, meaning it retains $7.86 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 4.41% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 17.20% and ROA at 7.04%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are AA's recent growth trends?
Alcoa Corp's revenue grew by 3.90% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings increased by 463.60% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against ALUMINUM industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$0.40

Dividend Yield

1.03%

Ex-Dividend Date

Aug 12, 2025

Dividend Date

Aug 28, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from AA?
Alcoa Corp offers a dividend yield of 1.03%, paying $0.40 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Aug 12, 2025.
How reliable is AA's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Alcoa Corp pays $0.40 per share in dividends against earnings of $4.24 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 9.43%. This conservative payout below 30% indicates excellent dividend safety with substantial room for future increases. The company retains most earnings for growth while still rewarding shareholders. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Aug 28, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$9.6B

Revenue (TTM)

$12.78B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$50.70

Shares Outstanding

258.92M

Book Value/Share

$23.70

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is AA's market capitalization and position?
Alcoa Corp has a market capitalization of $9.6B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock ($2B-$10B). Mid-caps often represent companies in their growth phase, offering higher growth potential than large-caps but with more stability than small-caps. They can be attractive takeover targets and may become tomorrow's large-caps. With 258.92M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the ALUMINUM industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does AA's price compare to its book value?
Alcoa Corp's book value per share is $23.70, while the current stock price is $37.07, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.56. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$39.21

5.77% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

2

Buy

6

Hold

3

Sell

0

Strong Sell

1

How reliable are analyst predictions for AA?
12 analysts cover AA with 67% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $39.21 implies 5.8% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on AA?
Current analyst recommendations:2 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, 01 Strong Sell. The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 23, 2025, 01:06 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

58.79

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$33.98

9.09% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$31.28

18.51% above MA-200

MACD Line

1.60

MACD Signal

1.45

MACD Histogram

0.15

Bullish

What does AA's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for AA is currently 58.79, indicating the stock is in neutral territory (40-60 range). Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, suggesting consolidation or balanced market forces. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this confirms bullish conditions.
How should traders interpret AA's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at 1.60 above the signal line at 1.45, with histogram at 0.15. This bullish crossover suggests upward momentum is building. The 50-day MA ($33.98) is above the 200-day MA ($31.28), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently above both MAs, confirming strength.

Indicators last updated: Oct 30, 2025, 01:36 PM

Active Alerts

Alert Condition
Price falls below
Threshold
$35.00
Created
Oct 28, 2025, 04:25 PM

Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Aluminum Foundation of America's Industrial Power

In September 2023, William F. Oplinger stood before Alcoa's board with a stark reality: the aluminum industry faced its most significant transformation since the company's founding in 1888. Traditional aluminum production—one of the world's most energy-intensive industrial processes—was under pressure from carbon regulations across Europe, North America, and Asia. But Oplinger saw opportunity where others saw crisis. His strategy: transform Alcoa from a cyclical commodity producer into a premium supplier of low-carbon aluminum, the material of choice for automakers racing to meet 2030 electrification targets.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Alcoa operates an integrated aluminum production chain—from bauxite mining through alumina refining to aluminum smelting. This vertical integration provides significant cost advantages and supply security. The company's SUSTANA branded low-carbon aluminum products command 20-30% price premiums over commodity aluminum, targeting customers willing to pay for verified carbon reductions. Alcoa's competitive moat rests on four pillars: decades-long mining concessions in tier-one jurisdictions, energy contracts that lock in 60% of power costs for 5+ years, proprietary smelting technology (ELYSIS) that eliminates direct carbon emissions, and customer relationships with major automotive OEMs including Ford, BMW, and General Motors.

Financial Performance

Alcoa's financials reflect the cyclical nature of aluminum markets, but with improving margins:

  • •Revenue: $10.6 billion (2024), down 8% YoY due to lower aluminum prices
  • •Operating Margin: 12.5%, up from 9.8% in 2023 despite price headwinds
  • •Free Cash Flow: $625 million, representing 5.9% FCF yield
  • •Debt Reduction: Net debt down $800 million to $1.9 billion (1.2x EBITDA)
  • •Return on Equity: 11.4%, industry-leading among integrated producers
  • •P/E Ratio: 8.78x, significantly below S&P 500 average of 21x

Growth Catalysts

  • •EV Adoption Acceleration: Global EV sales projected to reach 40% of new car sales by 2030, each requiring 250kg more aluminum than ICE vehicles
  • •ELYSIS Technology Commercialization: Joint venture with Rio Tinto deploying zero-carbon smelting at scale by 2026, potential to convert 30% of capacity
  • •China Supply Discipline: Chinese aluminum production cuts of 4 million tons announced for 2025 due to power constraints
  • •Infrastructure Spending: U.S. IIJA and IRA allocating $550 billion for aluminum-intensive construction and renewable energy
  • •Aluminum Tariffs: Section 232 tariffs of 10% on aluminum imports continue protecting domestic pricing power

Risks & Challenges

  • •Energy Cost Volatility: 40% of production costs tied to electricity; smelting requires 15 MWh per ton
  • •Commodity Price Exposure: Aluminum prices 35% below 2022 peaks; further Chinese overcapacity could pressure margins
  • •Capital Intensity: Refinery restarts and smelter upgrades require $300-500 million annually
  • •Geographic Concentration: 55% of EBITDA from Australian operations exposed to currency and political risks
  • •Decarbonization Costs: Transition to low-carbon production requires $2+ billion in CapEx over next decade

Competitive Landscape

CompanyMarket CapProduction (mt/year)Cost Position
Alcoa (AA)$6.4B2.3M2nd Quartile
Rio Tinto (RIO)$95B3.1M1st Quartile
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY)$13B2.0M2nd Quartile
UC Rusal$4B3.8M3rd Quartile

Alcoa competes globally but holds unique advantages in North American markets where domestic sourcing and low-carbon credentials matter most. Unlike Chinese producers burdened by coal-fired smelters, Oplinger's team benefits from 85% renewable energy in key facilities. The company's strategic focus on value-added products differentiates it from pure commodity producers.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Cyclical value investors with 3-5 year time horizons
  • ✓Green energy transition thematic investors
  • ✓Commodity allocation within diversified portfolios
  • ✓Investors seeking inflation protection through hard assets

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Income investors requiring stable dividends (policy is variable)
  • ✗Growth investors seeking consistent double-digit EPS growth
  • ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with commodity volatility
  • ✗Short-term traders (high beta stock with 30%+ annual price swings)

Investment Thesis

Alcoa presents a compelling deep value opportunity trading at 0.8x book value and 5x normalized EPS—a substantial discount to intrinsic value. The market is pricing in permanent aluminum oversupply, ignoring three critical factors: structural demand growth from electrification, disciplined Chinese supply, and the 20-30% green premium Alcoa commands for low-carbon products. William F. Oplinger's execution on ELYSIS technology deployment and SUSTANA market penetration could drive a 40% re-rating as the company transitions from commodity producer to specialty materials supplier. Patient investors willing to tolerate cyclical volatility can build positions during price weakness, targeting a 3-5 year hold period to capture the full value of Alcoa's strategic transformation.

Conclusion

For value investors with patience, Alcoa offers asymmetric risk/reward at current levels. The combination of hard asset backing, green energy exposure, and management's execution credibility makes this a buy for long-term portfolios, with position sizing adjusted for commodity cyclicality. Recommended action: BUY with initial 2-3% position, accumulating on further weakness below $35.
Bull Case
$62 (55% upside) - Aluminum $2,800/ton, full ELYSIS deployment, 20% green premium realized
Base Case
$48 (20% upside) - Aluminum $2,400/ton, gradual market share gains, 10% margin expansion
Bear Case
$28 (30% downside) - Aluminum $1,900/ton, Chinese oversupply, delayed technology adoption

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