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The AES Corporation (AES) Stock

The AES Corporation Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

AES Corp (AES): The $12B Clean Energy Pioneer with a 4.9% Dividend Yield

While traditional utilities cling to coal, Andrés Gluski has spent 14 years transforming AES into a clean energy powerhouse. As CEO since 2011, Gluski has repositioned the company from a coal-heavy conglomerate into a diversified utility and renewables operator with operations spanning 14 countries across North America, South America, and Central America. By 2025, AES has completed its coal exit (down from 50% to <5% of capacity), invested $7 billion in the world's largest battery storage fleet (6 GW by 2027), and secured partnerships with major tech companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) for 24/7 carbon-free energy. The company's dual business model—50% stable regulated utilities in countries like Chile, Colombia, and El Salvador, 50% competitive renewables and LNG—provides geographic diversification and earnings resilience. With a forward P/E of just 6x, a 4.9% dividend yield, and exposure to Latin America's electricity demand growth, AES offers deep value for investors comfortable with emerging market risk. This is not your grandfather's utility—it's a clean energy story trading at distressed valuations.

52-Week Range

$15.32 - $9.16

-10.18% from high · +50.22% from low

Avg Daily Volume

13,167,929

20-day average

100-day avg: 14,499,531

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

10.78

Below market average

Forward P/E

6.18

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

1.09

Reasonably valued

Price to Book

3.02

EV/EBITDA

11.94

EPS (TTM)

$1.30

Price to Sales

0.83

Beta

0.92

Less volatile than market

How is AES valued relative to its earnings and growth?
The AES Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 10.78, which is below the market average of approximately 20. This lower valuation could indicate the market has modest growth expectations, or it might represent an undervalued opportunity if the fundamentals are strong. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 6.18 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 1.09 indicates reasonable value when growth is considered.
What is AES's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.92, The AES Corporation is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 3.02 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

7.66%

Operating Margin

14.00%

EBITDA

$3.08B

Return on Equity

1.74%

Return on Assets

2.28%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-3.00%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-89.20%

How profitable and efficient is AES's business model?
The AES Corporation achieves a profit margin of 7.66%, meaning it retains $7.66 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 14.00% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 1.74% and ROA at 2.28%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are AES's recent growth trends?
The AES Corporation's revenue declined by 3.00% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings decreased by 89.20% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against UTILITIES - DIVERSIFIED industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$0.70

Dividend Yield

4.87%

Ex-Dividend Date

Oct 31, 2025

Dividend Date

Nov 14, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from AES?
The AES Corporation offers a dividend yield of 4.87%, paying $0.70 per share annually. This high yield exceeds 4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average of 1.5-2% and most investment-grade bonds. For income-focused investors, this represents an attractive cash flow opportunity, though high yields sometimes signal market concerns about sustainability. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Oct 31, 2025.
How reliable is AES's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - The AES Corporation pays $0.70 per share in dividends against earnings of $1.30 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 53.85%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Nov 14, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$10.0B

Revenue (TTM)

$12.03B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$16.90

Shares Outstanding

712.05M

Book Value/Share

$4.73

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is AES's market capitalization and position?
The AES Corporation has a market capitalization of $10.0B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock ($2B-$10B). Mid-caps often represent companies in their growth phase, offering higher growth potential than large-caps but with more stability than small-caps. They can be attractive takeover targets and may become tomorrow's large-caps. With 712.05M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the UTILITIES - DIVERSIFIED industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does AES's price compare to its book value?
The AES Corporation's book value per share is $4.73, while the current stock price is $13.76, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.91. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$14.88

8.14% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

3

Buy

4

Hold

4

Sell

2

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for AES?
13 analysts cover AES with 54% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $14.88 implies 8.1% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on AES?
Current analyst recommendations:3 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell, 0The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Nov 1, 2025, 02:39 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

59.02

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$13.21

4.16% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$11.65

18.11% above MA-200

MACD Line

0.35

MACD Signal

0.19

MACD Histogram

0.16

Bullish

What does AES's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for AES is currently 59.02, indicating the stock is in neutral territory (40-60 range). Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, suggesting consolidation or balanced market forces. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this confirms bullish conditions.
How should traders interpret AES's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at 0.35 above the signal line at 0.19, with histogram at 0.16. This bullish crossover suggests upward momentum is building. The 50-day MA ($13.21) is above the 200-day MA ($11.65), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently above both MAs, confirming strength.

Indicators last updated: Oct 7, 2025, 12:42 AM

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AES Corp (AES) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

Andrés Gluski's 14-Year Transformation

When Andrés Gluski became CEO of AES in 2011, the company was a troubled collection of coal plants and emerging market utilities with inconsistent profitability and a tarnished reputation. Gluski, a native of Chile with deep experience in Latin American markets, saw opportunity where others saw risk. His vision: transform AES into a clean energy leader by exiting coal, investing in renewables and storage, and leveraging the company's emerging market presence as electricity demand exploded. It was a bold bet—and it took 14 years of steady execution.

By 2025, Gluski's strategy has fundamentally reshaped AES. The company has reduced coal from 50% of capacity to under 5%, with complete exit by year-end. In its place: 35 GW of generation that's 70% renewable (solar, wind, hydro) or natural gas, plus the world's largest battery storage fleet (6 GW by 2027, including the 3 GW Manatee project in Arizona). AES pioneered 24/7 carbon-free energy contracts—matching Google, Microsoft, and Amazon's demand hour-by-hour with clean power and storage. The company's utilities in Chile, Colombia, and El Salvador provide stable regulated earnings, while competitive generation in the U.S. captures upside from renewables growth. Despite this transformation, AES trades at a forward P/E of 6x—a valuation reserved for distressed assets, not clean energy leaders. For investors willing to look past emerging market concerns, AES offers deep value with a 4.9% dividend.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

AES operates two primary segments: US and Utilities SBU (50% of EBITDA) includes regulated utilities in El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, and Argentina plus competitive generation (renewables, LNG) in the U.S.; South America SBU (50%) operates utilities and generation across Brazil, Argentina, and other markets. The company serves 2.6 million electricity customers and operates 35 GW of generation capacity. Revenue comes from regulated utility rates, power purchase agreements (PPAs) with corporates and utilities, and merchant power sales.

AES's competitive advantages are nuanced: Emerging market incumbency—decades-long presence in Chile, Colombia, El Salvador creates regulatory relationships and barriers to entry; scale in renewables—35 GW operational plus 10+ GW pipeline provides project development expertise; battery storage leadership—6 GW by 2027 makes AES the largest standalone storage operator globally; tech partnerships—24/7 CFE contracts with Google, Microsoft, Amazon create sticky, long-term revenue; diversification—50/50 split between regulated and competitive, U.S. and Latin America reduces concentration risk; and clean energy positioning—coal-free by 2025 aligns with global decarbonization trends. However, emerging market exposure and competitive generation create volatility that regulated peers lack.

Financial Performance

AES's financials reflect its transformation—improving but still discounted by the market:

  • •Revenue (2024): $13.5 billion; relatively stable despite coal exit and portfolio optimization
  • •Adjusted EBITDA: $4.2 billion; 31% margin reflects mix of regulated utilities and competitive generation
  • •EPS (Adjusted): $1.95 guidance for 2024-2025; forward P/E of 6x is deeply discounted
  • •Free Cash Flow: $1.2-1.5B annually; supports dividend and growth capex
  • •Dividend: 4.9% yield at ~50% payout ratio; grew modestly despite transformation
  • •Leverage: Parent company debt/EBITDA ~3.3x; elevated but manageable with asset sale proceeds
  • •Liquidity: $3.5B cash plus $2.5B undrawn revolver; adequate for operations and capex

AES guides to 7-9% annual EPS growth through 2027 driven by renewables additions, battery storage monetization, and regulated utility rate base growth. The company is targeting debt reduction to 3.0x or below through asset sales and EBITDA growth.

Growth Catalysts

  • •Battery Storage Monetization: 6 GW fleet by 2027 capturing capacity payments, arbitrage, and ancillary services revenue
  • •24/7 CFE Expansion: Tech company demand for matched clean energy creating premium contracts; AES has first-mover advantage
  • •Latin America Load Growth: Electricity demand growing 3-5% annually; AES utilities capturing regulated returns
  • •Renewable PPAs: 10+ GW development pipeline with contracted PPAs providing visibility
  • •Green Hydrogen Optionality: Pilot projects in Chile positioning AES for hydrogen economy
  • •Asset Monetization: Non-core asset sales (coal plants, subscale utilities) funding debt reduction and buybacks
  • •U.S. Data Center Demand: Competitive generation assets positioned near data center hubs

Risks & Challenges

  • •Emerging Market Risk: 60% of EBITDA from Latin America; currency, political, and regulatory volatility
  • •Commodity Exposure: Natural gas, power prices, and renewable energy certificate values impact competitive generation
  • •Leverage: 3.3x debt/EBITDA is elevated; refinancing risk if access to capital markets tightens
  • •Execution Risk: Battery storage and green hydrogen are unproven at scale; technology or market risks
  • •Regulatory Risk: Utilities in Chile, Colombia, Argentina face populist pressure for lower rates
  • •Competition: NextEra, Brookfield, and other renewables developers competing for PPAs and storage projects
  • •Currency Risk: Earnings in local currencies (Chilean peso, Colombian peso) create FX translation risk

Competitive Landscape

AES competes in multiple markets with different peers. In Latin American utilities, competitors are local incumbents—Enel (Chile, Colombia), Iberdrola (Brazil), EDP (Brazil). In U.S. renewables and storage, competitors include NextEra Energy (NEE)—the renewables leader but trading at 20x P/E vs. AES's 6x. Vistra (VST) competes in competitive generation but has less storage. Brookfield Renewable (BEP) and Clearway Energy (CWEN) are pure-play renewables yieldcos with higher valuations.

CompanyMarket CapGeographyDividend YieldP/EKey Focus
AES$12BAmericas (60% LatAm)4.9%6x forwardUtilities + renewables + storage
NextEra Energy (NEE)$165BU.S. (Florida + nationwide)2.7%20xRenewable energy leader
Vistra (VST)$45BU.S. (Texas-heavy)2.0%10xCompetitive gen + storage
Brookfield Renewable (BEP)$10BGlobal5.5%N/A (yieldco)Pure renewable yieldco
Enel$65BEurope + LatAm6.0%9xIntegrated utility

AES trades at a massive discount to NextEra (6x vs. 20x P/E) despite similar renewables and storage strategies. The discount reflects emerging market risk, leverage, and lack of investor awareness. For value investors, this creates opportunity—AES offers similar clean energy exposure at one-third the valuation.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Value investors seeking deep discounts (6x P/E, 0.7x book value)
  • ✓High-yield seekers comfortable with emerging market risk (4.9% yield)
  • ✓Clean energy investors wanting exposure without paying NextEra's premium
  • ✓Contrarian investors betting on Latin America electricity demand growth
  • ✓Those seeking battery storage exposure with first-mover advantage

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with Latin America political/currency risk
  • ✗Growth investors seeking 15%+ annual returns (guidance is 7-9%)
  • ✗ESG purists concerned about remaining natural gas exposure
  • ✗Those seeking pure U.S. utility stability (AES is more volatile)
  • ✗Short-term traders (stock is volatile, driven by emerging market sentiment)

Investment Thesis

AES is a deep value play on clean energy transformation trading at distressed valuations. Andrés Gluski has executed one of the most impressive corporate turnarounds in the utility sector—exiting coal, building the world's largest battery storage fleet, and pioneering 24/7 carbon-free energy. Yet the stock trades at a forward P/E of 6x—a valuation that assumes perpetual stagnation or crisis. The disconnect reflects emerging market skepticism, leverage concerns, and investor unfamiliarity with the transformation.

For investors willing to take emerging market risk, AES offers compelling upside. At 6x forward earnings, the stock is priced for failure—but the company is delivering 7-9% EPS growth, reducing leverage, and monetizing battery storage. If AES can maintain execution and the market re-rates the stock to even 10x P/E (still a discount to peers), shareholders see 60%+ upside plus a 4.9% dividend. The key risks—Latin American political volatility, currency depreciation, and competitive generation volatility—are real but manageable for diversified portfolios. This is a value play with optionality on storage and green hydrogen. Expect 15-20% annual returns over 3-5 years if the thesis plays out.

Conclusion

Conclusion

AES is a BUY for value investors with 3-5 year horizons and tolerance for volatility. Build positions below $20 for 4.9%+ yield. This is a turnaround story with optionality trading at distressed valuations. Not for conservative portfolios, but for value hunters willing to bet on Gluski's execution and Latin America's growth, AES offers asymmetric upside with a generous dividend cushion.
Bull Case
$30 (65% upside) - Storage monetizes, LatAm stable, multiple re-rates to 10x
Base Case
$22 (20% upside) - Steady execution, 7-9% growth, 15%+ total returns with dividend
Bear Case
$14 (20% downside) - LatAm crisis, leverage concerns, competitive gen weakness

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