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Allstate Corporation (ALL) Stock

Allstate Corporation Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Allstate Corporation (ALL): The $50B Insurance Giant 'You're in Good Hands' Navigating Climate Risks

Under CEO Tom Wilson's 14-year leadership (CEO since 2007), Allstate has navigated unprecedented industry challenges: the shift from agents to direct-to-consumer (Geico, Progressive), increasing climate-driven catastrophe losses, and rising litigation costs inflating auto claims. Wilson's response includes massive rate increases (up 20-30% in key states 2022-2024), geographic repositioning (restricting California/Florida homeowners policies), and digital transformation through the Allstate Mobile app and AI-powered claims processing. The company's P/E of 10.17 and forward P/E of 9.27 reflect market skepticism about profitability sustainability, while the 1.82% dividend yield (supported by $3B+ annual share buybacks) appeals to income investors betting on cyclical recovery.

52-Week Range

$215.70 - $173.88

-11.91% from high · +9.27% from low

Avg Daily Volume

1,511,378

100-day average

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

10.17

Below market average

Forward P/E

9.27

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

1.31

Reasonably valued

Price to Book

2.55

EPS (TTM)

$21.11

Price to Sales

0.86

Beta

0.36

Less volatile than market

How is ALL valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Allstate Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 10.17, which is below the market average of approximately 20. This lower valuation could indicate the market has modest growth expectations, or it might represent an undervalued opportunity if the fundamentals are strong. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 9.27 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 1.31 indicates reasonable value when growth is considered.
What is ALL's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.36, Allstate Corporation is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 2.55 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

8.79%

Operating Margin

11.60%

EBITDA

$7.42B

Return on Equity

27.00%

Return on Assets

3.83%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

5.80%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

587.00%

How profitable and efficient is ALL's business model?
Allstate Corporation achieves a profit margin of 8.79%, meaning it retains $8.79 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This represents a solid margin typical of well-run businesses, showing the company can effectively balance revenue generation with cost control. The operating margin of 11.60% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 27.00% and ROA at 3.83%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are ALL's recent growth trends?
Allstate Corporation's revenue grew by 5.80% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings increased by 587.00% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$3.84

Dividend Yield

1.82%

Ex-Dividend Date

Aug 29, 2025

Dividend Date

Oct 1, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from ALL?
Allstate Corporation offers a dividend yield of 1.82%, paying $3.84 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Aug 29, 2025.
How reliable is ALL's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Allstate Corporation pays $3.84 per share in dividends against earnings of $21.11 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 18.19%. This conservative payout below 30% indicates excellent dividend safety with substantial room for future increases. The company retains most earnings for growth while still rewarding shareholders. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Oct 1, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$57.0B

Revenue (TTM)

$66.22B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$250.02

Shares Outstanding

263.50M

Book Value/Share

$83.40

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is ALL's market capitalization and position?
Allstate Corporation has a market capitalization of $57.0B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 263.50M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does ALL's price compare to its book value?
Allstate Corporation's book value per share is $83.40, while the current stock price is $190.00, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.28. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$229.80

20.95% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

4

Buy

12

Hold

4

Sell

1

Strong Sell

1

How reliable are analyst predictions for ALL?
22 analysts cover ALL with 73% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The strong bullish consensus may already be priced in. The consensus target of $229.80 implies 20.9% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on ALL?
Current analyst recommendations:4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 06:38 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

56.93

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$200.77

-5.36% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$196.26

-3.19% below MA-200

MACD Line

-0.21

MACD Signal

-0.30

MACD Histogram

0.09

Bullish

What does ALL's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for ALL is currently 56.93, indicating the stock is in neutral territory (40-60 range). Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, suggesting consolidation or balanced market forces. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
How should traders interpret ALL's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.21 above the signal line at -0.30, with histogram at 0.09. This bullish crossover suggests upward momentum is building. The narrow histogram suggests a potential trend change ahead. The 50-day MA ($200.77) is above the 200-day MA ($196.26), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently below both MAs, confirming weakness.

Indicators last updated: Sep 20, 2025, 12:38 AM

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Allstate Corporation (ALL) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The 'Good Hands' Giant Facing Industry Headwinds

When Tom Wilson became CEO of Allstate in 2007, the company was the undisputed #2 insurer behind State Farm, with a profitable model built on exclusive agents and brand trust. Eighteen years later, Wilson faces existential questions: can Allstate's agent-centric model compete against Geico and Progressive's low-cost digital platforms? Can homeowners insurance remain profitable as climate change drives catastrophe frequency and severity beyond historical models? Can auto insurance margins recover after years of underwriting losses driven by distracted driving, litigation abuse, and parts inflation?

Wilson's strategy involves painful near-term actions: aggressive rate increases losing market share, non-renewing policies in catastrophe-prone geographies, and significant IT investments digitizing operations. The market questions whether these moves represent strategic repositioning or managed decline. The P/E of 10.17 prices in substantial uncertainty, yet also creates potential value if Wilson's transformation succeeds and underwriting profitability normalizes.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Allstate operates through multiple segments with varying profitability profiles:

  • •Allstate Brand (70% of premiums): Auto and homeowners insurance sold through 10,000+ exclusive agents and Allstate.com. Premium pricing with brand value justifying 10-15% higher rates than Geico/Progressive.
  • •National General (15% of premiums): Standard and non-standard auto, purchased 2021 for $4B. Distributed through independent agents targeting underserved markets.
  • •Protection Services (10% of premiums): Identity protection (InfoArmor), device protection (SquareTrade), roadside assistance. Higher-margin businesses diversifying from core P&C.
  • •Allstate Life & Annuities (5% of premiums): Life insurance, fixed annuities. In run-off mode, not actively growing.

The competitive moat stems from brand recognition ('You're in Good Hands' ranks among most trusted insurance brands), distribution scale (10,000+ agent offices), and decades of actuarial data refining pricing models. However, the moat has eroded: direct writers undercut pricing, online comparison tools commoditize insurance, and climate change reduces predictability of historical loss data.

Financial Performance

  • •Combined Ratio Challenge: Auto insurance combined ratio (losses + expenses / premiums) reached 107-110 (2022-2023), meaning $1.07-1.10 paid out per $1 earned—unprofitable before investment income
  • •Rate Increases Flowing Through: 20-30% cumulative rate hikes 2022-2024 improving margins; targeting 96-98 combined ratio (profitable) by 2025-2026
  • •Investment Income Support: $100B+ investment portfolio generating 4-5% yields ($4-5B annually) offsets underwriting volatility
  • •Capital Return Focus: $3-4B annual share buybacks reducing share count ~5% yearly, plus 1.82% dividend with 14-year increase track record
  • •Book Value Growth: Book value per share growing mid-single digits annually despite catastrophe losses, demonstrating capital strength

The financial story is cyclical recovery: after years of underwriting losses, rate increases and operational improvements position Allstate for profitability normalization. The forward P/E of 9.27 suggests improving earnings as initiatives gain traction.

Growth Catalysts

  • •Rate Increases Compounding: Multi-year rate increases finally exceeding loss cost inflation by 2025, driving margin expansion
  • •Telematics Adoption: Milewise (pay-per-mile) and Drivewise (usage-based) programs growing 40%+ annually, attracting lower-risk customers and improving loss ratios
  • •AI Claims Processing: Automated damage assessment and fraud detection reducing claims settlement costs by 15-20%
  • •Market Share Recovery: After losing customers during rate increase period, Allstate poised to regain share as pricing stabilizes and service quality differentiates
  • •Protection Services Growth: SquareTrade device protection and identity theft protection growing double-digits with 40%+ margins diversifying revenue mix

Risks & Challenges

  • •Climate Catastrophe Acceleration: Hurricanes, wildfires, and severe convective storms increasing frequency/severity beyond pricing models, threatening homeowners profitability
  • •Competitive Pressure from Direct Writers: Geico, Progressive, and Root Insurance continuing to gain share with 20-30% lower pricing and superior digital experience
  • •Regulatory Lag: State insurance commissioners delaying or reducing rate increase requests, limiting Allstate's ability to match loss cost inflation
  • •Agent Model Declining: Exclusive agent channel losing relevance as consumers shop online; 10,000+ agents expensive distribution requiring ongoing investment
  • •Auto Technology Disruption: Autonomous vehicles, ride-sharing, and vehicle-to-vehicle communication could structurally reduce auto insurance demand over 10-20 years
  • •Litigation Environment: Social inflation (rising jury awards, plaintiff attorney tactics) adding 5-7% annually to auto liability losses beyond traditional actuarial forecasts

Competitive Landscape

The U.S. P&C insurance market is highly competitive with distinct business models. In personal auto, top competitors include State Farm (#1, 17% share), Geico (#2, 14% share, Berkshire Hathaway-owned), Progressive (#3, 13% share), and Allstate (#4, 10% share). State Farm and Allstate rely on exclusive agent networks with personalized service and higher pricing. Geico and Progressive leverage direct-to-consumer models with lower costs and aggressive pricing.

Tom Wilson's challenge is competing against Geico/Progressive cost structures while maintaining agent relationships. Allstate's dual-channel strategy—agents plus digital—aims to offer choice, but risks satisfying neither customer segment fully. In homeowners, State Farm dominates (17% share), followed by Liberty Mutual, Travelers, and Allstate. Climate change is forcing all carriers to re-underwrite coastal and wildfire-exposed properties, with Allstate among the most aggressive in restricting coverage in California and Florida.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Value investors seeking cyclical recovery plays at P/E of 10.17 below historical 12-15x averages
  • ✓Income investors attracted to 1.82% dividend yield plus 5% annual buyback creating total 7% shareholder yield
  • ✓Contrarian investors betting rate increases restore profitability despite market skepticism
  • ✓Financial sector investors seeking diversification from banks with uncorrelated insurance exposure

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors seeking revenue expansion (Allstate prioritizing profitability over growth, accepting market share losses)
  • ✗ESG investors concerned about climate risk exposure and fossil fuel investments in portfolio
  • ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with catastrophe loss volatility and regulatory uncertainty
  • ✗Tech-focused investors skeptical of legacy agent model competing against digital disruptors

Investment Thesis

Allstate represents a classic contrarian value play on cyclical profitability recovery in a challenged industry. Tom Wilson's painful but necessary actions—aggressive rate increases, geographic repositioning, digital investments—position the company for margin normalization after years of underwriting losses. The P/E of 10.17 and forward P/E of 9.27 discount significant pessimism, yet rate increases are compounding, loss trends moderating, and investment income supporting capital returns during the transition.

The bull case is straightforward: if combined ratios return to 96-98 (profitable) by 2026, earnings could reach $20-25 per share (versus $15-17 currently), warranting 12-14x multiple and $250-320 stock price. The company generates $4-5B annual investment income providing downside buffer, and management is aggressively returning capital via buybacks and dividends. However, risks are real: climate change, litigation inflation, and competitive pressure from digital insurers could prevent profitability normalization, leaving Allstate as a value trap. This is suitable for patient value investors with 3-5 year horizons, not growth seekers or those requiring near-term certainty.

Conclusion

Conclusion

ALL is a BUY for value investors with 3-5 year horizons at current levels below $200. The combination of 10x P/E, 1.82% dividend yield, 5% buyback yield, and cyclical recovery potential offers attractive total return profile. Position as 3-5% of value-oriented portfolios recognizing volatility from catastrophe seasons. Not suitable for growth investors or those uncomfortable with insurance sector risks. Dollar-cost averaging recommended given quarterly earnings volatility.
Bull Case
$280-320 (40-60% upside) if combined ratios normalize to 96-98 and market re-rates stock to 12-14x earnings
Base Case
$220-240 (10-20% upside) assuming gradual profitability improvement with modest multiple expansion to 10-11x
Bear Case
$150-170 (25% downside) if climate losses accelerate, regulatory pushback limits rate increases, or market share declines steepen

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