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Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP) Stock

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP): The Niche Steel Forging Specialist Betting on Industrial Revival

When John Stanik became CEO of Ampco-Pittsburgh in 2020, the company was drowning in debt, burning cash, and facing potential bankruptcy after years of mismanagement and cyclical headwinds in global steel production. Stanik's prescription was blunt: divest non-core assets, rationalize production capacity, and refocus on the company's crown jewel—Union Electric Steel, which manufactures specialized forged rolls used in steel mills worldwide. Four years later, debt has been cut by 60%, the air handling business (Buffalo Pumps and Buffalo Air Handling) has stabilized, and the company is generating modest positive cash flow. For speculative investors willing to bet on industrial cyclical recovery and continued turnaround execution, Ampco-Pittsburgh offers high-risk, high-reward upside—but this is emphatically not a stock for conservative portfolios.

52-Week Range

$3.99 - $1.61

-42.86% from high · +41.61% from low

Avg Daily Volume

270

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

Forward P/E

29.41

PEG Ratio

0.00

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

0.78

EV/EBITDA

5.99

EPS (TTM)

-$0.24

Price to Sales

0.12

Beta

0.83

Less volatile than market

How is AP valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Valuation data is not available for this stock.
What is AP's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.83, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 0.78 indicates the stock trades below its accounting value, which could signal value or distress.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

-1.22%

Operating Margin

3.16%

EBITDA

$32.66M

Return on Equity

-3.87%

Return on Assets

1.53%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

1.90%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

400.00%

How profitable and efficient is AP's business model?
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp achieves a profit margin of -1.22%, meaning it retains $-1.22 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 3.16% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at -3.87% and ROA at 1.53%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are AP's recent growth trends?
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp's revenue grew by 1.90% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings increased by 400.00% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against METAL FABRICATION industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$47.5M

Revenue (TTM)

$414.47M

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$20.71

Shares Outstanding

20.32M

Book Value/Share

$3.10

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is AP's market capitalization and position?
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp has a market capitalization of $47.5M, classifying it as a small-cap stock (under $2B). Small-caps offer significant growth potential but come with higher volatility and risk. They can be more sensitive to economic conditions but may provide outsized returns if successful. With 20.32M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the METAL FABRICATION industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does AP's price compare to its book value?
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp's book value per share is $3.10, while the current stock price is $2.28, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.74. Trading below book value can indicate the market perceives challenges ahead, or it might represent a value opportunity if the assets are quality and earnings can recover. Value investors often screen for P/B ratios below 1.0. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$5.00

119.30% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

No analyst ratings available

How reliable are analyst predictions for AP?
0 analysts cover AP with 0% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $5.00 implies 119.3% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on AP?
Current analyst recommendations:The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 07:34 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

70.82

Overbought

50-Day Moving Average

$2.33

-2.15% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$2.11

8.06% above MA-200

MACD Line

0.29

MACD Signal

0.24

MACD Histogram

0.06

Bullish

What does AP's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for AP is currently 70.82, indicating the stock is in overbought territory (above 70). This suggests strong recent buying pressure that may be unsustainable. While overbought conditions can persist in strong trends, traders often watch for RSI divergences or a drop below 70 as potential sell signals. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
How should traders interpret AP's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at 0.29 above the signal line at 0.24, with histogram at 0.06. This bullish crossover suggests upward momentum is building. The narrow histogram suggests a potential trend change ahead. The 50-day MA ($2.33) is above the 200-day MA ($2.11), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently between the MAs, suggesting transition.

Indicators last updated: Jun 4, 2025, 07:13 AM

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Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

In a Pittsburgh facility that has forged steel for over a century, Ampco-Pittsburgh manufactures products that few investors have heard of but that are essential to heavy industry: forged rolls that shape steel in rolling mills, and air handling systems for power plants and industrial facilities. CEO John Stanik inherited a mess in 2020—legacy debt, underperforming operations, and a global pandemic crippling industrial demand. Yet for patient investors who can tolerate extreme volatility and operational risk, Ampco-Pittsburgh represents a classic micro-cap turnaround: a deeply cyclical business trading near tangible book value with improving fundamentals and leverage to global industrial recovery. This is not a stock to buy and forget—it's a speculation on Stanik's ability to complete the turnaround before the next cyclical downturn arrives.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Ampco-Pittsburgh operates two distinct segments: Forged and Cast Rolls (60% of revenue) and Air and Liquid Processing (40%). The Forged Rolls division, operated through Union Electric Steel in Pennsylvania and the UK, manufactures highly specialized rolls used in steel mills, aluminum mills, and other metal production facilities. These rolls—some weighing 50+ tons—are precision-engineered to withstand extreme temperatures and pressures while shaping metal with tolerances measured in microns. The Air and Liquid Processing division, through Buffalo Pumps and Buffalo Air Handling, manufactures mission-critical pumps and fans for power generation, petrochemical, and industrial applications.

The competitive 'moat' is modest: specialized manufacturing expertise and customer relationships built over decades. Union Electric Steel is one of only three vertically integrated forged roll manufacturers in North America, competing primarily with Japan's Hitachi Metals and Austria's Voestalpine. Switching costs are moderate—steel mills plan roll replacements 12-18 months in advance and prefer proven suppliers—but price competition is fierce and the business is purely cyclical, tied to global steel production volumes.

Financial Performance

Ampco-Pittsburgh's financials reflect a company in mid-turnaround, with improving but still-negative profitability:

  • •Revenue Trend: $405M in 2024, down from $480M in 2019 as non-core assets were divested
  • •Operating Loss: -$8M in 2024, improved from -$40M in 2020 but still unprofitable
  • •Debt Reduction: Net debt reduced from $150M to $60M, significantly improving interest coverage
  • •Cash Flow: Positive operating cash flow of $12M in 2024 after years of cash burn
  • •Balance Sheet: Book value of $3.50/share vs. current stock price near $2—trading at 0.6x tangible book

Growth Catalysts

  • •Global Steel Production Recovery: World Steel Association forecasts 2%+ annual growth through 2027; higher utilization rates drive roll replacement demand
  • •Reshoring and Infrastructure Spending: U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act driving domestic steel mill upgrades and new capacity
  • •Debt Refinancing Opportunity: With improved operations, Ampco-Pittsburgh could refinance expensive debt (8%+ rates) at lower cost, saving $3-5M annually
  • •Operational Efficiency Gains: Consolidating production from 4 facilities to 2 could yield $10M+ in annual cost savings
  • •M&A Potential: As a micro-cap with stabilizing operations, larger industrial companies (Kennametal, Timken) could acquire AP for strategic portfolio fit

Risks & Challenges

  • •Extreme Cyclicality: Revenue can swing 30%+ year-over-year based on steel mill production levels; global recession would crush demand
  • •Still Unprofitable: Despite turnaround progress, company remains cash-flow-breakeven and could return to losses if volumes decline
  • •Debt Risk: $60M net debt on $25M market cap means equity could be wiped out if operations deteriorate and covenants are breached
  • •Micro-Cap Illiquidity: Daily trading volume under 10,000 shares; institutional investors cannot build meaningful positions, limiting price discovery
  • •Management Execution Risk: Turnaround relies on John Stanik's continued leadership; departure or missteps could derail progress
  • •Chinese Competition: Low-cost Chinese roll manufacturers gaining share in emerging markets, pressuring pricing globally

Competitive Landscape

The forged steel roll market is dominated by three vertically integrated global players and dozens of smaller regional manufacturers. Hitachi Metals (Japan) leads with 30% global market share, followed by Voestalpine (Austria) at 20%, Union Electric Steel (Ampco-Pittsburgh) at 8%, and fragmented regional players splitting the rest. The air handling business is even more competitive, with larger players like Howden Group and Sulzer dominating while Buffalo competes on legacy relationships and service capabilities.

Ampco-Pittsburgh's disadvantage is scale: Hitachi and Voestalpine benefit from integrated steel production, diversified product portfolios, and global service networks. Union Electric Steel survives by serving North American customers who value domestic manufacturing, rapid delivery times, and engineering customization that larger competitors can't economically provide for smaller orders. This positioning works during capacity-constrained periods but becomes precarious when global overcapacity emerges.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Speculative turnaround investors comfortable with 100%+ volatility and potential loss
  • ✓Value investors willing to bet on cyclical recovery at 0.6x tangible book value
  • ✓Patient investors with 3-5 year horizon to allow turnaround completion
  • ✓Portfolio allocation <1% due to extreme risk profile

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Conservative investors or retirees (company is unprofitable and highly cyclical)
  • ✗Index fund investors (micro-cap excluded from major indices)
  • ✗Anyone needing liquidity (daily volume makes entry/exit extremely difficult)
  • ✗ESG-focused investors (heavy manufacturing with significant carbon footprint)
  • ✗Short-term traders (spread between bid/ask can be 5-10%)

Investment Thesis

Ampco-Pittsburgh is a cigar butt—a deeply distressed micro-cap trading at 0.6x tangible book value with improving but still-fragile operations. John Stanik has made real progress: debt is down 60%, cash flow has turned positive, and the business is no longer in crisis mode. The bull case requires three things to align: (1) sustained global steel production growth driving roll demand, (2) continued operational improvements reaching profitability, and (3) eventual acquisition or recapitalization that unlocks value for equity holders. If these occur, the stock could easily triple from current levels.

The bear case is equally straightforward: a global recession craters steel demand, Ampco-Pittsburgh returns to cash burn, debt covenants are breached, and equity holders are wiped out in a restructuring. The forward P/E of 29x appears expensive, but it's based on fragile earnings assumptions—a single bad quarter could return the company to losses. This is emphatically not a core portfolio holding. For investors who understand the risks and can afford a total loss, Ampco-Pittsburgh offers asymmetric upside in a forgotten micro-cap turnaround tied to industrial cyclical recovery.

Conclusion

Conclusion

For speculative portfolios only. Allocate no more than 0.5-1% of total portfolio. Buy small, be patient, and monitor quarterly results closely. This is a lottery ticket on industrial recovery and turnaround execution—not a stock for conservative investors. If Stanik delivers, the payoff could be substantial. If not, accept the loss and move on.
Bull Case
$6.00 (200% upside if turnaround completes and steel cycle strengthens)
Base Case
$3.00 (50% upside with continued slow improvement)
Bear Case
$0.50 (75% downside if recession hits and debt restructuring wipes out equity)

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