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BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock

BHP Group Limited Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

BHP Group (BHP): The $142B Mining Colossus Betting Big on Copper and the Energy Transition

When CEO Mike Henry took the helm of BHP in 2020, he inherited a sprawling conglomerate criticized for complexity and underperformance. Five years later, Henry has transformed the Melbourne-based giant into a focused powerhouse centered on iron ore from Australia's Pilbara region and copper from Chile's Escondida mine—the world's largest. With operating margins of 38% and $23 billion in EBITDA, BHP generates cash flows that rival tech companies despite operating in cyclical commodities. As the energy transition drives insatiable copper demand for EVs, solar panels, and grid infrastructure, Henry is betting BHP's portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets positions it to capture decades of growth. For investors seeking commodity exposure with quality management, BHP offers a liquid, dividend-paying entry point.

52-Week Range

$58.92 - $38.88

-9.89% from high · +36.55% from low

Avg Daily Volume

2,803,385

20-day average

100-day avg: 3,192,895

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

16.12

Near market average

Forward P/E

13.87

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

0.00

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

3.05

EV/EBITDA

5.95

EPS (TTM)

$3.55

Price to Sales

2.83

Beta

0.71

Less volatile than market

How is BHP valued relative to its earnings and growth?
BHP Group Limited trades at a P/E ratio of 16.12, which is near the market average of approximately 20, suggesting the market views it as fairly valued relative to its earnings. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 13.87 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year.0
What is BHP's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.71, BHP Group Limited is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 3.05 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

17.60%

Operating Margin

37.70%

EBITDA

$23.44B

Return on Equity

22.00%

Return on Assets

11.00%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-8.20%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-34.00%

How profitable and efficient is BHP's business model?
BHP Group Limited achieves a profit margin of 17.60%, meaning it retains $17.60 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 37.70% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 22.00% and ROA at 11.00%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are BHP's recent growth trends?
BHP Group Limited's revenue declined by 8.20% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings decreased by 34.00% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$1.10

Dividend Yield

1.90%

Ex-Dividend Date

Sep 5, 2025

Dividend Date

Sep 25, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from BHP?
BHP Group Limited offers a dividend yield of 1.90%, paying $1.10 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Sep 5, 2025.
How reliable is BHP's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - BHP Group Limited pays $1.10 per share in dividends against earnings of $3.55 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 30.99%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Sep 25, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$145.3B

Revenue (TTM)

$51.26B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$20.21

Shares Outstanding

2.54B

Book Value/Share

$9.39

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is BHP's market capitalization and position?
BHP Group Limited has a market capitalization of $145.3B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 2.54B shares outstanding, the company's ownership is widely distributed. As a major player in the OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does BHP's price compare to its book value?
BHP Group Limited's book value per share is $9.39, while the current stock price is $53.09, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.65. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$53.08

0.02% downside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

0

Buy

1

Hold

4

Sell

1

Strong Sell

1

How reliable are analyst predictions for BHP?
7 analysts cover BHP with 14% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $53.08 implies -0.0% downside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on BHP?
Current analyst recommendations:01 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment indicates concerns, but contrarian investors sometimes find opportunities when Wall Street is negative.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Nov 1, 2025, 02:31 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

38.24

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$55.23

-3.87% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$50.64

4.84% above MA-200

MACD Line

-0.59

MACD Signal

-0.20

MACD Histogram

-0.39

Bearish

What does BHP's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for BHP is currently 38.24, indicating the stock is showing bearish momentum (30-40 range). Selling pressure is evident but not extreme. This often occurs during pullbacks in uptrends or early stages of downtrends. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this confirms bearish conditions.
How should traders interpret BHP's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.59 below the signal line at -0.20, with histogram at -0.39. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($55.23) is above the 200-day MA ($50.64), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently between the MAs, suggesting transition.

Indicators last updated: Nov 22, 2025, 12:38 AM

Active Alerts

Alert Condition
Price falls below
Threshold
$51.00
Created
Nov 18, 2025, 08:18 PM
Alert Condition
Price rises above
Threshold
$57.00
Created
Nov 18, 2025, 07:39 PM

BHP Group (BHP) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

From Diversified Sprawl to Focused Powerhouse

BHP's story in 2025 is one of strategic simplification. Under Mike Henry's leadership, the company has exited petroleum (selling oil and gas assets for $10.8 billion in 2022), divested marginal coal mines, and doubled down on what it calls "future-facing commodities"—copper, nickel, and potash alongside its core iron ore business. This disciplined capital allocation has paid off: BHP now trades at $57, up 47% from its 2024 low of $38.88, with the stock brushing against 52-week highs despite a challenging commodity environment. The company's 38% operating margin and 22% return on equity demonstrate the quality of its asset base, which includes world-class deposits with decades of remaining mine life.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

BHP operates the full mining value chain across four core commodities:

  • •Iron Ore (55% of revenue): Pilbara operations in Western Australia produce 280Mt+ annually with industry-leading costs under $15/tonne
  • •Copper (30% of revenue): Escondida in Chile (world's largest copper mine producing 1Mt+ annually), plus Olympic Dam (Australia) and Antamina (Peru)
  • •Coal (10% of revenue): Metallurgical coal for steelmaking from Queensland, Australia—BHP is exiting thermal coal completely
  • •Nickel/Potash (5% of revenue): Nickel West in Australia supplies battery-grade nickel; Jansen potash project in Canada ramping up

BHP's moat is structural—world-class ore bodies in stable jurisdictions with infrastructure that took decades and tens of billions to build. Escondida's copper reserves will sustain production for 50+ years. Pilbara iron ore benefits from proximity to China (5-day shipping vs. 15 days from Brazil) and integrated rail/port infrastructure that competitors can't replicate. These advantages translate to bottom-quartile cost positions, ensuring BHP remains profitable even when commodity prices collapse.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $51.3B trailing (down 8.2% YoY as iron ore/copper prices moderated from 2024 peaks)
  • •Operating Margin: 37.7%—exceptional profitability reflecting low-cost asset base
  • •EBITDA: $23.4B with minimal capital intensity relative to asset base
  • •Return on Equity: 22%, demonstrating efficient capital deployment despite cyclicality
  • •Earnings: EPS of $3.55 (down 34% YoY from commodity price normalization)
  • •Dividend: $1.10 per share (1.96% yield) with progressive policy targeting 50-60% payout ratio

The 34% earnings decline reflects typical commodity cyclicality—iron ore prices fell from $125/tonne in 2024 to sub-$100 levels in 2025 as Chinese steel demand softened. However, BHP's cost discipline and operational excellence shielded margins, with EBITDA margins remaining above 45%. The company generated $17 billion in operating cash flow, funding both the $1.10 dividend and $5.8 billion in buybacks—a capital return program few miners can match.

Growth Catalysts

  • •Copper Supercycle: Global copper deficit forecast by 2030 as EV/renewable energy demand outstrips supply; BHP targeting 3Mt+ production by 2030
  • •Jansen Potash Ramp-Up: $7.5B project in Saskatchewan begins production 2026, targeting 4.5Mt annual capacity by 2027—major earnings driver
  • •Iron Ore Resilience: Chinese steel production stabilizing after 2024 downturn; India infrastructure boom provides new demand source
  • •Nickel for Batteries: Nickel West supplying Tesla and other EV makers with low-carbon battery-grade nickel from renewable-powered operations
  • •M&A Optionality: $10B+ balance sheet capacity for copper acquisitions; Mike Henry eyeing tier-1 assets in stable jurisdictions

Risks & Challenges

  • •China Demand Risk: 60% of iron ore goes to China; economic slowdown or steel overproduction would crater prices
  • •Commodity Price Volatility: Iron ore swung from $125 to $80 in 12 months—revenue can move 30%+ year-over-year
  • •Capital Project Execution: Jansen potash and Escondida expansion are multi-billion bets; delays or cost overruns would disappoint
  • •ESG Pressure: Coal operations (even metallurgical) face climate scrutiny; indigenous land rights issues in Australia create operational risk
  • •Geopolitical Risk: Assets span Australia, Chile, Peru—nationalization fears, royalty hikes, or regulatory changes possible

Competitive Landscape

CompanyMarket CapKey Assets2025 Focus
BHP Group$142BPilbara iron ore, Escondida copperCopper growth, Jansen potash
Rio Tinto (RIO)$102BPilbara iron ore, Oyu Tolgoi copperLithium, Simandou iron ore
Vale (VALE)$44BBrazilian iron ore, nickelIron ore recovery, base metals
Glencore (GLEN)$55BCoal, copper, cobalt tradingCopper expansion, coal exit

BHP and Rio Tinto dominate iron ore with near-duopoly in the Pilbara, both achieving sub-$15/tonne costs. Vale's higher-grade Brazilian ore competes on quality but suffers from longer shipping times to Asia. In copper, BHP's Escondida is unmatched in scale, though Freeport-McMoRan's Indonesian Grasberg and Anglo American's Chilean assets are formidable. BHP's diversification across commodities provides earnings stability versus pure-play iron ore (Rio) or copper (Freeport) miners.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Commodity investors bullish on energy transition and copper demand (5-10 year horizon)
  • ✓Income investors seeking 2% yield plus buybacks from free cash flow machine
  • ✓Inflation hedge seekers—BHP benefits from rising commodity prices during reflation
  • ✓Value investors attracted to 16x P/E for quality assets with 22% ROE and 38% margins

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors seeking secular revenue growth (mining is cyclical)
  • ✗ESG purists uncomfortable with coal/fossil fuel exposure (even if declining)
  • ✗Traders seeking volatility—BHP is large-cap with lower beta (0.71) than market
  • ✗Investors bearish on China—60% revenue exposure to Chinese steel demand

Investment Thesis

BHP represents a high-quality way to play commodity exposure without sacrificing profitability or balance sheet strength. At 16x earnings near 52-week highs, the stock prices in modest expectations—yet Mike Henry's strategic repositioning toward copper and away from thermal coal positions BHP for secular growth as electrification accelerates. The copper deficit narrative is compelling: EVs use 3-4x more copper than ICE vehicles, while solar/wind farms require 5-8x more copper per MW than fossil fuel plants. BHP's 3Mt production target by 2030 (from 1.7Mt today) would capture this demand surge.

The key risk is iron ore dependency—a Chinese recession or steel oversupply could send BHP tumbling despite copper exposure. However, the company's fortress balance sheet (net debt under $10B), progressive dividend policy, and consistent buybacks provide downside protection. Analysts are cautiously positioned with only one buy rating versus four holds and two sells, suggesting consensus skepticism despite operational excellence. This pessimism may create opportunity—if iron ore stabilizes and Jansen potash hits targets, BHP could surprise to the upside.

Conclusion

Hold for existing investors, selective buy for commodity bulls with 3+ year horizon. BHP's quality assets, disciplined management, and energy transition positioning justify a core portfolio allocation for those seeking materials exposure. The 2% yield provides income while waiting for copper thesis to play out. Dollar-cost average on weakness rather than chasing at 52-week highs.
Bull Case
$75 (31% upside) - Copper supercycle accelerates, iron ore stabilizes above $110, Jansen exceeds expectations
Base Case
$60 (5% upside) - Modest commodity price gains, steady execution on Jansen and copper expansion
Bear Case
$45 (21% downside) - China recession, iron ore below $80, copper demand disappoints on EV slowdown

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