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Bumble Inc (BMBL) Stock

Bumble Inc Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Bumble Inc (BMBL): Can the Women-First Dating App Rebuild After Losing 75% of Its Value?

When Bumble went public in February 2021 at $43 per share, founder Whitney Wolfe Herd became the youngest female CEO to take a company public, and the dating app that empowered women to make the first move seemed unstoppable. Fast forward to 2025, and Bumble trades around $10 per share—a catastrophic 77% decline from its IPO price. Lidiane Jones, who replaced Wolfe Herd as CEO in January 2024, inherited a company grappling with user fatigue, fierce competition from Match Group's Tinder and Hinge, and existential questions about whether paid dating app subscriptions remain viable. Bumble's 44 million total users generate just $1.1 billion in annual revenue—compared to Match Group's $3.4 billion from 75 million users. The core problem: Bumble's women-first messaging model, once a differentiator, now faces skepticism as Gen Z shifts to Instagram, TikTok, and AI-powered dating assistants. Can Jones rebuild growth, or is Bumble destined to become a cautionary tale of pandemic-era overvaluation?

52-Week Range

$9.22 - $3.55

-41.00% from high · +53.24% from low

Avg Daily Volume

2,498,381

20-day average

100-day avg: 3,222,907

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

Forward P/E

9.32

Price to Book

1.09

EV/EBITDA

5.72

EPS (TTM)

-$7.33

Price to Sales

0.80

Beta

1.95

More volatile than market

How is BMBL valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Valuation data is not available for this stock.
What is BMBL's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.95, Bumble Inc is significantly more volatile than the market. For every 10% market move, this stock tends to move 19% in the same direction. Higher beta stocks offer greater potential returns but with increased risk. The price-to-book ratio of 1.09 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

-82.40%

Operating Margin

32.80%

EBITDA

$269.70M

Return on Equity

-71.90%

Return on Assets

4.91%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-7.60%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-33.10%

How profitable and efficient is BMBL's business model?
Bumble Inc achieves a profit margin of -82.40%, meaning it retains $-82.40 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 32.80% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at -71.90% and ROA at 4.91%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are BMBL's recent growth trends?
Bumble Inc's revenue declined by 7.60% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings decreased by 33.10% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$826.2M

Revenue (TTM)

$1.03B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$9.43

Shares Outstanding

104.01M

Book Value/Share

$5.56

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is BMBL's market capitalization and position?
Bumble Inc has a market capitalization of $826.2M, classifying it as a small-cap stock (under $2B). Small-caps offer significant growth potential but come with higher volatility and risk. They can be more sensitive to economic conditions but may provide outsized returns if successful. With 104.01M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does BMBL's price compare to its book value?
Bumble Inc's book value per share is $5.56, while the current stock price is $5.44, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Trading below book value can indicate the market perceives challenges ahead, or it might represent a value opportunity if the assets are quality and earnings can recover. Value investors often screen for P/B ratios below 1.0. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$6.64

22.06% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

1

Buy

1

Hold

13

Sell

0

Strong Sell

2

How reliable are analyst predictions for BMBL?
17 analysts cover BMBL with 12% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $6.64 implies 22.1% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on BMBL?
Current analyst recommendations:1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 13 Hold, 02 Strong Sell. The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 17, 2025, 08:14 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

32.70

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$6.29

-13.51% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$6.11

-10.97% below MA-200

MACD Line

-0.35

MACD Signal

-0.30

MACD Histogram

-0.05

Bearish

What does BMBL's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for BMBL is currently 32.70, indicating the stock is showing bearish momentum (30-40 range). Selling pressure is evident but not extreme. This often occurs during pullbacks in uptrends or early stages of downtrends. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this confirms bearish conditions.
How should traders interpret BMBL's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.35 below the signal line at -0.30, with histogram at -0.05. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The narrow histogram suggests a potential trend change ahead. The 50-day MA ($6.29) is above the 200-day MA ($6.11), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently below both MAs, confirming weakness.

Indicators last updated: Oct 18, 2025, 12:46 AM

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Bumble Inc (BMBL) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Rise and Fall of the Women-First Dating App

Whitney Wolfe Herd founded Bumble in 2014 after leaving Tinder, where she experienced workplace harassment. Her insight: give women control by requiring them to message first in heterosexual matches, reducing unwanted messages and improving user experience. The model resonated—Bumble grew to 44 million users by 2021, powered by the 'Bumble BFF' friend-finding feature and 'Bumble Bizz' professional networking. The 2021 IPO valued Bumble at $8 billion. Then reality hit: user growth stalled, engagement declined, and paying conversion rates dropped from 9% to 8%. By 2024, Lidiane Jones (former Salesforce and Slack executive) took over as CEO with a turnaround mandate. The challenge: Bumble's differentiation—women message first—has become less relevant as Gen Z users prioritize authenticity over structured matching. Meanwhile, Match Group's Hinge ('designed to be deleted') captured younger demographics with superior algorithms and video features Bumble lacks.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Bumble generates revenue through three tiers: Bumble Boost ($24.99/month for unlimited swipes and rematch), Bumble Premium ($39.99/month adding advanced filters), and à la carte purchases (SuperSwipes, Spotlight features). The company also operates Badoo (popular in Latin America and Europe) and Fruitz (casual dating for Gen Z). The purported moat rests on brand identity and network effects—more women attracts more men, creating a virtuous cycle. However, this moat has proven fragile. Unlike social networks where switching costs are high, dating app users easily multi-home on 3-4 apps simultaneously. Bumble's 8% paying conversion rate lags Match Group's 10%+, suggesting weaker monetization. The company's competitive disadvantage: Match Group operates a portfolio strategy (Tinder for hookups, Hinge for relationships, OkCupid for personality-based matching) capturing different user segments. Bumble's one-size-fits-all approach leaves it vulnerable to specialized competitors.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $1.1 billion (2024), flat YoY growth—major deceleration from 30%+ growth in 2020-2021
  • •Paying Users: 3.5 million (8% conversion rate), down from 4.1M peak in 2022
  • •ARPU: $28/month per paying user, stagnant for three years (pricing power limited)
  • •Adjusted EBITDA: $240M (22% margin), but GAAP net income negative due to $200M+ stock-based comp
  • •Free Cash Flow: $180M (16% FCF margin), down from 25% in 2021
  • •Market Cap: $1.2B (2.5x revenue vs. Match Group's 3.5x)

Growth Catalysts

  • •AI Product Features: Testing AI-powered conversation starters and compatibility predictions to improve engagement
  • •International Expansion: Underpenetrated in Asia ($60B TAM); focus on India and Southeast Asia markets
  • •Video/Voice Features: Rolling out video profiles and voice notes to compete with Hinge's video prompts
  • •Premium Tier Expansion: Introducing $60/month 'Bumble Luxe' tier with elite features for high-willingness-to-pay users
  • •M&A Opportunity: Potential acquisition target for Match Group, Meta, or private equity at current distressed valuation

Risks & Challenges

  • •Structural User Decline: Dating app fatigue driving users to Instagram DMs and IRL meetups; TAM may be shrinking
  • •Match Group Dominance: Tinder + Hinge control 60% market share; Bumble struggles in winner-take-most market
  • •Gen Z Abandonment: Users under 25 increasingly view paid dating apps as 'cringe' and expensive
  • •Product Innovation Lag: Bumble late to video dating, AI matching, and verification features competitors launched years ago
  • •Founder Departure: Whitney Wolfe Herd's exit removes visionary leadership and brand association
  • •Regulatory Risk: Potential regulation of dating app algorithms, age verification requirements, or subscription transparency rules

Competitive Landscape

PlatformMAUsKey StrengthTarget Demo
Tinder (MTCH)75MCasual/hookups18-29
Hinge (MTCH)20MRelationships25-35
Bumble (BMBL)44MWomen-first22-35
Badoo (BMBL)12MInternationalGlobal

Match Group's multi-brand portfolio gives it decisive advantages: users dissatisfied with Tinder migrate to Hinge (still within Match ecosystem), while Bumble loses them entirely. Lidiane Jones must either out-innovate or find a strategic buyer.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Contrarian value investors betting on turnaround at 2.5x sales
  • ✓M&A arbitrage investors anticipating acquisition by Match Group
  • ✓Special situations funds targeting distressed tech stocks
  • ✓Long-term investors if conviction in Jones' product roadmap

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors (revenue flat, user base declining)
  • ✗Momentum traders (downtrend intact, no near-term catalysts)
  • ✗Income investors (no dividend, negative GAAP earnings)
  • ✗Risk-averse portfolios (high execution risk, competitive pressures)

Investment Thesis

Bumble presents a classic turnaround scenario: once-high-flying tech company trades at distressed valuation after growth stalls. At 2.5x sales, the stock prices in permanent decline—if Lidiane Jones stabilizes users and reaccelerates revenue to mid-single-digit growth, a re-rating to 4-5x sales (inline with Match Group) implies 60-100% upside. The bull case hinges on product innovation (AI features, video), international expansion (Asia), and pricing power (premium tiers). The bear case: dating apps are mature, competition is fierce, and Bumble lacks the scale or differentiation to survive. The most likely outcome may be acquisition—Match Group could eliminate a competitor for $1.5-2 billion, a 30-50% premium to current prices. For value investors with high risk tolerance, Bumble offers asymmetric risk/reward at current levels. However, this requires belief that Jones can execute—a big leap of faith given the company's trajectory.

Conclusion

Bumble is a speculative value play for contrarian investors willing to bet on turnaround execution or M&A. The risk/reward favors small positions (1-2%) sized for potential acquisition premium or successful Jones-led revival. For most investors: HOLD existing positions or AVOID until growth stabilizes. For deep value specialists: SPECULATIVE BUY below $9 with recognition this could be a value trap. Recommended: Wait for 2-3 quarters of user growth before initiating positions.
Bull Case
$18 (80% upside) - Product innovation succeeds, revenue reaccelerates to 8-10% growth, re-rates to 4x sales
Base Case
$12 (20% upside) - Acquired by Match Group or private equity at 30-40% premium
Bear Case
$6 (40% downside) - Continued user decline, Match Group dominance intensifies, no buyer emerges

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