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Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock

Carrier Global Corporation Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Carrier Global (CARR): The $60B HVAC Giant Born From UTC's Breakup

When United Technologies spun off Carrier Global in April 2020, investors received shares in the company that invented modern air conditioning in 1902. CEO David Gitlin, a UTC veteran who took the helm at separation, oversees a portfolio of market-leading HVAC, refrigeration, and fire safety brands generating $24 billion in annual revenue. Carrier air conditioners cool 40% of U.S. homes. The company's Sensitech cold chain monitoring protects $50 billion in pharmaceuticals and food shipments annually. Carrier Fire & Security systems safeguard critical infrastructure globally. As climate change drives cooling demand (global temperatures rising, heat waves intensifying) and buildings electrify away from fossil fuels, Carrier sits at the intersection of unavoidable secular trends. Trading at 18.5x forward earnings with a $60 billion market cap, the stock commands a premium to industrial peers—pricing in Carrier's transition from cyclical HVAC supplier to climate solutions provider with recurring software and service revenue reaching 40% of the total mix.

52-Week Range

$80.78 - $53.68

-25.71% from high · +11.79% from low

Avg Daily Volume

84,430

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

33.79

Above market average

Forward P/E

18.45

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

15.37

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

3.40

EV/EBITDA

13.23

EPS (TTM)

$1.75

Price to Sales

2.24

Beta

1.25

Similar volatility to market

How is CARR valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Carrier Global Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 33.79, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 18.45 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 15.37 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is CARR's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.25, Carrier Global Corporation is roughly as volatile as the market, moving in line with broad market trends. This moderate beta suggests the stock offers market-level returns without excessive volatility. The price-to-book ratio of 3.40 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

17.80%

Operating Margin

14.40%

EBITDA

$3.66B

Return on Equity

11.40%

Return on Assets

3.82%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

3.00%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-73.30%

How profitable and efficient is CARR's business model?
Carrier Global Corporation achieves a profit margin of 17.80%, meaning it retains $17.80 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 14.40% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 11.40% and ROA at 3.82%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are CARR's recent growth trends?
Carrier Global Corporation's revenue grew by 3.00% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings decreased by 73.30% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$0.87

Dividend Yield

1.47%

Ex-Dividend Date

Jul 21, 2025

Dividend Date

Aug 8, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from CARR?
Carrier Global Corporation offers a dividend yield of 1.47%, paying $0.87 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Jul 21, 2025.
How reliable is CARR's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Carrier Global Corporation pays $0.87 per share in dividends against earnings of $1.75 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 49.43%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Aug 8, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$50.3B

Revenue (TTM)

$22.46B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$25.57

Shares Outstanding

851.02M

Book Value/Share

$17.28

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CARR's market capitalization and position?
Carrier Global Corporation has a market capitalization of $50.3B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 851.02M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CARR's price compare to its book value?
Carrier Global Corporation's book value per share is $17.28, while the current stock price is $60.01, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.47. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$77.17

28.60% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

2

Buy

12

Hold

10

Sell

0

Strong Sell

1

How reliable are analyst predictions for CARR?
25 analysts cover CARR with 56% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $77.17 implies 28.6% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CARR?
Current analyst recommendations:2 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 10 Hold, 01 Strong Sell. The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 02:45 AM

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Carrier Global (CARR) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The 122-Year-Old Company Reinventing Air Conditioning

Willis Carrier invented the first modern air conditioning system in 1902 to control humidity in a Brooklyn printing plant. Over the next century, the company bearing his name became synonymous with climate control—cooling homes, offices, data centers, and hospitals globally. After decades as part of United Technologies' conglomerate, Carrier gained independence in 2020. David Gitlin, appointed CEO at spinoff, inherited a $24 billion revenue company with #1 positions in residential and commercial HVAC but facing commodity pressures and cyclical exposure to construction markets. His transformation strategy: shift from selling metal boxes (air conditioners) to providing climate solutions (IoT-connected systems with predictive maintenance, energy optimization, and subscription software). By 2024, Carrier's aftermarket revenue (replacement parts, service contracts, digital subscriptions) reached $9.6 billion—40% of total sales at 70% gross margins versus 30% on equipment. This recurring revenue base stabilizes earnings and commands premium multiples.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Carrier operates three segments: HVAC (60% of revenue), Refrigeration (25%), and Fire & Security (15%). The HVAC business sells through contractors and distributors—Carrier-branded premium systems, Bryant mid-market, and private-label economy units. Refrigeration includes transport refrigeration (Carrier Transicold reefer units on trucks), commercial refrigeration (supermarket coolers), and cold chain monitoring (Sensitech). Fire & Security encompasses Edwards fire detection, Kidde extinguishers, and LenelS2 access control. The moat stems from installed base lock-in: 100+ million Carrier systems globally create aftermarket revenue streams lasting 15-20 years. HVAC contractors trained on Carrier systems preferentially install Carrier replacements, creating switching friction. Commercial customers (hospitals, data centers, factories) face 6-12 month equipment lead times and multi-million dollar retrofit costs, cementing relationships. Brand strength also matters—'Carrier' is synonymous with quality in residential HVAC (like 'Kleenex' for tissues), allowing 10-15% price premiums. Gitlin's digital push (Abound IoT platform) creates new moats: predictive analytics, remote monitoring, and energy optimization software generating $500M+ in high-margin recurring revenue.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $24 billion (2024), up 6% organically driven by price increases and commercial HVAC growth
  • •Operating Margin: 17.3%, up 400bps from spinoff via productivity and aftermarket mix
  • •Net Income: $3.2B, forward P/E of 18.5x (premium to industrial average of 15x)
  • •Free Cash Flow: $3.8B (16% of revenue), funding $1.2B dividends + $3B buybacks
  • •Dividend Yield: 2.3% with 4% annual growth rate (sustainable 35% payout ratio)
  • •Net Debt: $10B (1.5x EBITDA), manageable leverage with investment-grade rating

Growth Catalysts

  • •Climate Change Adaptation: Rising global temperatures driving 10% annual cooling demand growth in emerging markets (India, SE Asia)
  • •Building Electrification: Heat pump adoption (replacing gas furnaces) accelerating; Carrier's heat pump sales up 25% annually
  • •Data Center Boom: AI-driven compute growth requiring precision cooling; Carrier's Aquaedge chillers capturing $2B TAM
  • •Cold Chain Expansion: Pharmaceutical cold storage (mRNA vaccines, biologics) growing 15% annually
  • •Abound Platform: IoT software and services targeting $5B revenue by 2030 (vs. $500M today)
  • •M&A Opportunities: Fragmented HVAC service market ripe for consolidation; Carrier acquiring 5-10 companies annually

Risks & Challenges

  • •Construction Cycle Exposure: 60% of equipment sales tied to new construction; recession cuts demand 20-30%
  • •Commodity Cost Inflation: Copper, steel, aluminum account for 40% of COGS; price volatility pressures margins
  • •Regulatory Refrigerant Transitions: HFC phasedown requires costly R&D for next-gen refrigerants
  • •Chinese Competition: Gree, Midea undercutting on price in emerging markets; potential U.S. market entry
  • •Energy Efficiency Regulations: Stricter SEER ratings increase product complexity and costs
  • •Distributor Consolidation: HVAC distributors merging, gaining negotiating leverage over pricing

Competitive Landscape

CompanyHVAC RevenueMarket PositionKey Strength
Carrier (CARR)$14BGlobal #1Brand + installed base
Trane Technologies (TT)$16BStrong #2Commercial focus
Daikin (Japan)$25BAsia leaderVRF technology
Johnson Controls (JCI)$12BBuilding systemsIntegration play

Carrier competes globally but maintains #1 residential U.S. position and leads in transport refrigeration. David Gitlin's strategy differentiates through software and services rather than pure equipment wars—shifting battleground from commodity hardware to value-added solutions.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Dividend growth investors seeking 2.3% yield + 5-7% total returns
  • ✓Climate/ESG thematic investors (energy efficiency, electrification exposure)
  • ✓Quality industrials allocation with defensive recession characteristics
  • ✓Long-term investors (10+ years) capturing structural cooling demand growth

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Value investors (18.5x forward P/E is premium, not cheap)
  • ✗High-yield seekers (2.3% below REIT/utility alternatives)
  • ✗Growth investors (6-8% revenue growth modest vs. tech)
  • ✗Short-term traders (low beta, low volatility stock)

Investment Thesis

Carrier Global offers a rare combination: market leadership in a structurally growing category (cooling demand), transition to higher-margin recurring revenue (aftermarket + software), and secular tailwinds from climate adaptation and building electrification. At 18.5x forward earnings, the stock isn't cheap but reflects quality—Carrier's 17% operating margins exceed peers, 40% aftermarket mix provides stability, and 16% FCF margins fund generous capital returns. The key insight: Carrier is transforming from a cyclical equipment supplier (trading at 12-14x) into a climate solutions provider with software economics (justifying 20-25x). If David Gitlin delivers $5B in recurring digital revenue by 2030, the company deserves a premium multiple. Near-term risks include construction cycle softness and commodity inflation, but multi-year secular drivers (rising temperatures, heat pump adoption, data center cooling) support 8-10% annual EPS growth through 2030. This is a core industrial holding for balanced portfolios seeking quality compounding with defensive characteristics.

Conclusion

Carrier is a high-quality industrial compounder suitable for 5-10% core holdings in balanced portfolios. The stock merits a BUY for long-term investors seeking defensive industrials exposure with climate/electrification tailwinds. Not suitable for value hunters or aggressive growth mandates. Recommended action: BUY on weakness below $60, accumulate for dividend growth and quality compounding. This is a 'sleep well at night' industrial blue-chip with 7-10% annual total return potential through 2030. Hold through economic cycles, reinvest dividends, and benefit from structural cooling demand growth as global temperatures rise.
Bull Case
$95 (50% upside) - Digital revenue hits $5B, operating margins reach 20%, climate urgency drives demand
Base Case
$70 (10% upside) - Steady growth, gradual margin improvement, market multiple maintained
Bear Case
$45 (30% downside) - Recession cuts construction 30%, commodity inflation erodes margins, Chinese competition intensifies

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