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Comerica Inc. (CMA) Stock

Comerica Inc. Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Comerica Inc (CMA): The $10.9B Fifth Third Acquisition Creating America's 9th Largest Bank

When Curtis Farmer negotiated Comerica's sale to Fifth Third Bancorp in October 2025, he secured a 20% premium for shareholders of the Dallas-based regional bank he'd led since 2019. The $10.9 billion all-stock transaction values each Comerica share at $82.88, with stockholders receiving 1.8663 Fifth Third shares per Comerica share upon closing expected in Q1 2026. The combined entity will create America's ninth-largest bank with $288 billion in assets spanning 17 of the 20 fastest-growing U.S. markets. Founded in Detroit in 1849, Comerica had evolved into a regional powerhouse with 380 branches across five states and strong commercial banking relationships in technology, energy, and manufacturing sectors. Despite reporting $78 billion in assets as of June 2025 and maintaining a $2.84 annual dividend, sluggish loan growth and competitive pressures in regional banking made scale imperative. For Comerica shareholders, the acquisition represents both an endpoint to independent operations and participation in a larger, more diversified banking franchise.

52-Week Range

$83.22 - $47.05

-7.35% from high · +63.87% from low

Avg Daily Volume

1,194,463

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

13.23

Below market average

Forward P/E

12.33

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

4.40

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

1.30

EPS (TTM)

$5.18

Price to Sales

2.76

Beta

0.99

Less volatile than market

How is CMA valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Comerica Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 13.23, which is below the market average of approximately 20. This lower valuation could indicate the market has modest growth expectations, or it might represent an undervalued opportunity if the fundamentals are strong. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 12.33 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 4.40 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is CMA's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.99, Comerica Inc. is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 1.30 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

22.60%

Operating Margin

31.70%

Return on Equity

11.10%

Return on Assets

0.92%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-2.30%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-4.70%

How profitable and efficient is CMA's business model?
Comerica Inc. achieves a profit margin of 22.60%, meaning it retains $22.60 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 31.70% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 11.10% and ROA at 0.92%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are CMA's recent growth trends?
Comerica Inc.'s revenue declined by 2.30% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings decreased by 4.70% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against BANKS - REGIONAL industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$2.84

Dividend Yield

4.12%

Ex-Dividend Date

Sep 15, 2025

Dividend Date

Oct 1, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from CMA?
Comerica Inc. offers a dividend yield of 4.12%, paying $2.84 per share annually. This high yield exceeds 4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average of 1.5-2% and most investment-grade bonds. For income-focused investors, this represents an attractive cash flow opportunity, though high yields sometimes signal market concerns about sustainability. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Sep 15, 2025.
How reliable is CMA's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Comerica Inc. pays $2.84 per share in dividends against earnings of $5.18 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 54.83%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Oct 1, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$8.9B

Revenue (TTM)

$3.21B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$24.36

Shares Outstanding

128.53M

Book Value/Share

$52.90

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CMA's market capitalization and position?
Comerica Inc. has a market capitalization of $8.9B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock ($2B-$10B). Mid-caps often represent companies in their growth phase, offering higher growth potential than large-caps but with more stability than small-caps. They can be attractive takeover targets and may become tomorrow's large-caps. With 128.53M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the BANKS - REGIONAL industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CMA's price compare to its book value?
Comerica Inc.'s book value per share is $52.90, while the current stock price is $77.10, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$68.64

10.97% downside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

2

Buy

1

Hold

13

Sell

2

Strong Sell

4

How reliable are analyst predictions for CMA?
22 analysts cover CMA with 14% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $68.64 implies -11.0% downside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CMA?
Current analyst recommendations:2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell, 4 Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment indicates concerns, but contrarian investors sometimes find opportunities when Wall Street is negative.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 06:10 AM

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Comerica Inc (CMA) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The 176-Year Regional Bank Merging Into America's 9th Largest

Regional bank CEOs face an existential question in 2025: achieve scale or sell. Curtis Farmer chose the latter when he agreed to Fifth Third Bancorp's $10.9 billion acquisition of Comerica in October 2025. Founded in Detroit in 1849 as the Detroit Savings Fund Institute, Comerica had survived the Great Depression, financial crises, and industry consolidation to become a $78 billion regional powerhouse with deep commercial banking relationships across technology, energy, and manufacturing sectors. But sluggish loan growth, competitive deposit pressures, and the capital requirements of modern banking made independence increasingly costly. The Fifth Third deal offers Comerica shareholders a 20% premium to recent trading prices and participation in a $288 billion combined entity that will dominate 17 of America's 20 fastest-growing markets. For investors, the question shifts from evaluating Comerica's standalone prospects to assessing the merger arbitrage spread and combined company potential.

Business Model & Historical Position

As an independent entity through Q3 2025, Comerica generates revenue through commercial and retail banking across five primary markets: Texas (largest), Michigan (heritage market), California, Florida, and Arizona, plus a growing Southeast presence in North Carolina and a Mountain West footprint in Colorado. The bank's 380 banking centers serve business clients in technology (Silicon Valley relationships), energy (Texas oil/gas), manufacturing (Michigan automotive), and general commercial banking.

Comerica's competitive positioning emphasized relationship banking with middle-market commercial clients rather than consumer mass-market banking. This created a deposit base that was more commercial-focused and rate-sensitive than consumer-heavy competitors, contributing to margin pressure when rates rose. The bank maintained strong credit quality and conservative underwriting standards throughout its history, but lacked the scale economies that larger regional banks achieved through technology investments and operational leverage. These dynamics—solid fundamentals without competitive scale—made Comerica an attractive acquisition target for Fifth Third seeking geographic expansion and commercial banking expertise.

Financial Performance & Deal Terms

  • •Assets: $77.6B (March 31, 2025), $78.0B (June 30, 2025)
  • •Q1 2025 Earnings: Results reported but specific metrics not disclosed in search results
  • •2025 Outlook: Minimal to no loan growth expected (more pessimistic than peers), NII growth 6-7%
  • •Dividend: $2.84 annual ($0.71 quarterly), paid through Q3 2025, status post-merger TBD
  • •Acquisition Terms: $10.9B all-stock, 1.8663 Fifth Third shares per Comerica share
  • •Premium: $82.88 per share (20% above 10-day VWAP as of Oct 3, 2025)
  • •Ownership Split: Fifth Third shareholders 73%, Comerica shareholders 27% of combined company
  • •Expected Close: End of Q1 2026 (March 2026) subject to regulatory/shareholder approvals

The sluggish loan growth outlook and rate-sensitive deposit base pressured standalone profitability, making the Fifth Third premium attractive despite Comerica's conservative credit quality and solid asset base.

Strategic Rationale for Merger

  • •Geographic Expansion: Fifth Third gains significant presence in TX, CA, FL, AZ—fast-growing Sunbelt markets
  • •Commercial Banking Depth: Comerica's technology, energy, manufacturing relationships enhance Fifth Third's capabilities
  • •Scale Economics: $288B combined assets create 9th largest U.S. bank with improved operating leverage
  • •Growth Markets: Post-merger, 50%+ of branches in 17 of 20 fastest-growing U.S. markets by 2030
  • •Board Integration: Three Comerica directors joining Fifth Third board ensures continuity and expertise
  • •Leadership Retention: Curtis Farmer as vice chair, Peter Sefzik leading wealth/asset management preserves talent
  • •Technology Investment: Combined scale enables digital banking investments neither could afford independently

Risks & Considerations

  • •Regulatory Approval Risk: Deal subject to Fed/OCC approvals; potential for conditions or delays beyond Q1 2026
  • •Integration Execution: Combining systems, cultures, operations creates risk of customer/talent attrition
  • •Merger Arbitrage Spread: Stock may trade below conversion value if market doubts deal completion
  • •Dividend Uncertainty: Combined company dividend policy not yet announced; potential for reduction vs. current $2.84
  • •Fifth Third Stock Risk: Comerica shareholders inherit Fifth Third's exposure, performance, strategic decisions
  • •Branch Rationalization: Overlapping geographies (e.g., Michigan) may result in branch closures and job losses
  • •Economic Downturn: If recession hits before close, deal terms could look less attractive or face renegotiation pressure

Competitive Context & Industry Consolidation

The Fifth Third-Comerica merger exemplifies the consolidation wave sweeping regional banking. Scale has become essential for competing against national money-center banks (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) and for funding technology investments required to match online-first competitors. Comerica competed in commercial banking against regional peers like KeyCorp, M&T Bank, and Regions Financial, but lacked the asset base to invest in AI-driven lending platforms, sophisticated treasury management systems, and digital customer experiences that clients increasingly demand.

Fifth Third's acquisition strategy positions the combined entity to compete more effectively across Sunbelt growth markets where population migration, business formation, and economic expansion create commercial banking opportunities. By adding Comerica's technology sector relationships (California), energy expertise (Texas), and automotive ties (Michigan), Fifth Third diversifies industry concentration risk while gaining specialized lending capabilities. For Comerica, the alternative to selling was years of sluggish loan growth and margin compression while investing billions in technology just to maintain competitive parity—a math that didn't favor independence.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Merger arbitrage specialists comfortable with 4-6 month deal timelines and regulatory risk
  • ✓Investors seeking exposure to combined Fifth Third entity through CMA conversion
  • ✓Those believing Fifth Third will maintain or increase dividend post-merger
  • ✓Shareholders seeking liquidity through Fifth Third's larger, more liquid stock
  • ✓Investors confident in regulatory approval and Q1 2026 close timeline

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Investors seeking standalone Comerica exposure or turnaround potential (company being acquired)
  • ✗Those preferring pure Texas/Michigan regional bank exposure (becomes multi-state conglomerate)
  • ✗Income investors uncertain about Fifth Third's post-merger dividend policy
  • ✗Traders seeking short-term volatility (merger arbitrage spreads typically narrow slowly)
  • ✗Those bearish on Fifth Third's strategic direction or management quality

Investment Thesis

Comerica ceased to be a standalone investment proposition when Curtis Farmer agreed to the Fifth Third acquisition in October 2025. The investment thesis now centers on: (1) merger arbitrage spread between current CMA trading price and conversion value of 1.8663 Fifth Third shares, (2) regulatory approval probability and timing, and (3) appeal of the combined $288 billion entity versus standalone Comerica. The bull case for accepting the deal rests on the 20% premium to recent trading prices, participation in a larger, more diversified banking franchise spanning growth markets, and potential for Fifth Third to maintain attractive dividend yields while achieving cost synergies that boost profitability.

The bear case questions whether Fifth Third can successfully integrate Comerica's technology, energy, and automotive relationships without customer attrition, whether the combined company will maintain Comerica's $2.84 annual dividend (74.32% of CMA's implied earnings), and whether regulators will approve the transaction without onerous conditions. Merger arbitrage spreads compensate for deal risk—if CMA trades materially below 1.8663x Fifth Third's price, it suggests market skepticism about completion. For existing Comerica shareholders, the decision is straightforward: accept the 20% premium and Fifth Third shares, or sell into the market and exit. For new investors, CMA offers merger arbitrage opportunity if confident in Q1 2026 close, but requires understanding Fifth Third's strategic direction since that's the ultimate investment.

Conclusion

Hold for current shareholders through Q1 2026 close unless needing immediate liquidity. The 20% premium and Fifth Third participation offer fair value given sluggish standalone loan growth outlook. New investors should evaluate as merger arbitrage opportunity: buy if spread to conversion value exceeds deal risk comfort level. Not suitable for those seeking pure regional bank exposure—post-merger, this becomes a Fifth Third investment. Monitor regulatory approvals and Fifth Third stock performance as key variables.
Deal Close Scenario
1.8663x Fifth Third share price at close (currently implies $82.88 based on Oct 3 FITB price)
Arbitrage Spread
Current CMA price vs. conversion value—spread compensates for deal completion risk
Deal Break Scenario
Return to pre-announcement levels (~$69, down 15-20% if deal fails)

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