The Cable Giant Splitting in Two While Fighting Fixed Wireless
Few companies face transitions as complex as Comcast in 2025. Brian Roberts, who led Comcast since 2002, watches his broadband business—long considered the company's fortress—shed 226,000 subscribers in Q2 alone as T-Mobile and Verizon's fixed wireless offerings provide cord-cutters with viable alternatives at lower prices. Simultaneously, the cable networks that once printed money (MSNBC, CNBC, USA Network) face irreversible cord-cutting, leading Roberts to spin them into a separate publicly traded entity under NBCUniversal's Mark Lazarus. The remaining Comcast will focus on broadband connectivity, Peacock streaming (which grew Media EBITDA 21%), NBC broadcast, theme parks, and Comcast Spectacor sports. Naming Mike Cavanagh as co-CEO starting January 2026 distributes leadership burden during what Roberts called "transformative times." Despite challenges, Q1 generated $5.4 billion in free cash flow and connectivity margins hit 41.4%—suggesting the broadband business remains profitable even as subscribers flee.
Business Model & Segment Performance
Comcast generates revenue across three segments: Connectivity & Platforms (broadband, video, voice, wireless through Xfinity brand), Media (NBCUniversal including Peacock streaming, NBC broadcast, cable networks, film studios), and Sky (European pay-TV across UK, Italy, Germany). The company serves approximately 32 million broadband subscribers, though this number declined sharply in 2025 as fixed wireless alternatives from mobile carriers captured market share previously untouchable by cable.
The planned spin-off fundamentally reshapes the business model. SpinCo will house declining linear cable networks (MSNBC, CNBC, USA, E!, SYFY, Golf Channel) plus digital assets Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, and Sports Engine. RemainCo (Comcast post-spin) retains faster-growing/more defensible assets: broadband network infrastructure generating 41.4% EBITDA margins, Peacock streaming with NBA content driving subscriber growth, NBC broadcast network, Universal film studios, theme parks, and Comcast Spectacor (Philadelphia Flyers, Wells Fargo Center). This structure isolates legacy declining assets while focusing capital on streaming and connectivity businesses with better long-term prospects.
Financial Performance
- •Q1 2025: $5.4B free cash flow (+19% YoY), Adjusted EPS growth mid-single digits, connectivity revenue +4%
- •Q2 2025: $4.5B FCF, revenue +2.1% YoY, Adjusted EPS +3%, Media EBITDA +21% (Peacock strength)
- •Connectivity Margins: 41.4% EBITDA margin in Connectivity & Platforms despite subscriber losses
- •Broadband Subscribers: Lost 226K domestic subscribers in Q2 2025 to fixed wireless competition
- •Dividend: $1.32 annual ($0.33 quarterly), 4.51% yield, $1.2B paid in both Q1 and Q2
- •Stock Performance: Down 22% YTD to $29.28, market cap $108B
- •Next Earnings: October 30, 2025
Strong free cash flow and margin expansion demonstrate profitability resilience, but subscriber losses threaten long-term revenue sustainability unless arrested.
Growth Catalysts & Strategic Initiatives
- •Cable Network Spin-Off: Isolates declining linear TV assets, unlocks value if SpinCo trades at sum-of-parts premium
- •Peacock Streaming Growth: NBA content driving subscribers, 21% Media EBITDA growth demonstrates monetization progress
- •Fixed Wireless Response: Potential pricing/product changes to compete with mobile carrier broadband offerings
- •5G Wireless Expansion: Xfinity Mobile leveraging Verizon's network could offset broadband losses
- •Network Speed Upgrades: Next-generation broadband speeds create premium tier pricing power
- •Theme Parks Recovery: Universal parks benefit from post-pandemic travel rebound
- •Co-CEO Leadership: Cavanagh brings financial discipline from JPMorgan to streamline operations
Risks & Challenges
- •Broadband Subscriber Losses: Fixed wireless from T-Mobile/Verizon threatens core revenue stream (226K lost Q2)
- •Cord-Cutting Acceleration: Linear TV decline faster than streaming growth can offset
- •Spin-Off Execution Risk: SpinCo may trade below expectations, diluting perceived value creation
- •Peacock Profitability: Streaming remains investment-heavy; unclear when Peacock reaches sustainable profits
- •Content Cost Inflation: NBA rights and premium content drive costs higher faster than subscription revenue
- •Leverage Concerns: Cable network cash flows declining while debt service requirements remain
- •Competition Intensification: Netflix, Disney+, Amazon compete for streaming; fiber overbuilders target broadband
Competitive Landscape
In broadband, Comcast battles fixed wireless from T-Mobile and Verizon (causing Q2's 226K subscriber losses), fiber overbuilders like AT&T and Verizon FiOS in select markets, and emerging municipal broadband initiatives. The company's cable infrastructure advantage erodes as 5G fixed wireless delivers comparable speeds at lower prices without installation hassles. In streaming, Peacock competes with Netflix, Disney+, Max (Warner Bros Discovery), Paramount+, and Amazon Prime Video for subscriber attention and content spend.
What differentiates Comcast is vertical integration: owning both distribution (broadband pipes) and content (NBCUniversal studios, sports rights). The spin-off sacrifices some integration benefits (separating cable networks from distribution) but focuses remaining assets on defensible broadband infrastructure and Peacock streaming. The co-CEO structure signals Roberts recognizes that competing against tech giants (Google Fiber), mobile carriers (T-Mobile/Verizon), and streaming natives (Netflix) requires operational excellence beyond traditional cable playbooks.
Who Is This Stock Suitable For?
Perfect For
- ✓Value investors believing 22% YTD decline overcorrects for broadband subscriber losses
- ✓Income investors seeking 4.51% dividend yield with $10B+ annual FCF supporting payouts
- ✓SpinCo arbitrage specialists anticipating sum-of-parts value unlock
- ✓Contrarians betting broadband stabilizes while Peacock accelerates growth
- ✓Those seeking media exposure at depressed valuations ($108B market cap)
Less Suitable For
- ✗Growth investors requiring expanding subscriber/revenue bases (broadband declining)
- ✗Those bearish on cable/broadband long-term viability vs. fixed wireless
- ✗Streaming pure-plays (Comcast remains 60%+ connectivity/traditional media)
- ✗Short-term traders (transformation takes 2-3 years, near-term volatility likely)
Investment Thesis
Comcast presents a classic deep value bet on successful business transformation. The bull case rests on Brian Roberts and Mike Cavanagh stabilizing broadband subscriber losses through competitive pricing/speed upgrades, accelerating Peacock growth via NBA and premium content, and unlocking value through the cable network spin-off. With $5.4 billion in Q1 free cash flow and 41.4% connectivity margins, the core broadband business remains cash-generative despite subscriber declines. The 4.51% dividend yield backed by $10 billion+ annual FCF provides income while markets reassess post-spin valuation. If broadband stabilizes around 30 million subs and Peacock reaches 50+ million paying subscribers, the stock could re-rate higher from current depressed levels.
The bear case questions whether any strategy arrests fixed wireless substitution as T-Mobile/Verizon offer comparable speeds at lower prices nationwide. If Comcast loses another 1-2 million broadband subs annually, revenue declines overwhelm Peacock growth. The cable network spin-off may prove value-destructive if SpinCo trades at distressed multiples, highlighting that Comcast separated its worst assets without improving RemainCo fundamentals. Streaming profitability remains elusive despite investments, and content cost inflation (NBA rights) compresses margins. For value investors with 3-5 year horizons comfortable with transformation risk, the 22% YTD decline creates entry opportunity. The 4.51% yield provides downside cushion while spin-off and Peacock provide upside optionality. Not suitable for those requiring near-term subscriber/revenue growth.