Skip to main content

CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock

CME Group Inc. Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

CME Group Inc (CME): The World's Largest Derivatives Exchange Launching 24/7 Crypto Trading in 2026

When Terry Duffy announced CME Group's plan for 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading in October 2025, he signaled the derivatives giant's recognition that crypto markets don't sleep—and neither can exchanges competing for institutional volume. The service, launching early 2026 pending regulatory review, will allow continuous trading on CME Globex with only a two-hour weekly maintenance window. This follows explosive Q3 2025 crypto performance: 340,000 average daily contracts (record high, up 225% year-over-year) driven by successful launches of Solana and XRP futures. Despite overall Q3 revenue declining 3% to $1.5 billion, CME achieved the second-highest average daily volume in its history at 25.3 million contracts while market data revenue hit a record $203 million. The Google Cloud partnership announced in 2021 continues expanding access and efficiency. With stock up 41% over 52 weeks versus the S&P's 13.4% gain, CME demonstrates how exchange monopolies capitalize on volatility across asset classes.

52-Week Range

$288.09 - $204.81

-8.56% from high · +28.62% from low

Avg Daily Volume

65,013

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

26.38

Above market average

Forward P/E

23.20

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

5.69

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

3.51

EV/EBITDA

18.46

EPS (TTM)

$10.32

Price to Sales

15.25

Beta

0.44

Less volatile than market

How is CME valued relative to its earnings and growth?
CME Group Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 26.38, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 23.20 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 5.69 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is CME's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.44, CME Group Inc. is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 3.51 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

58.60%

Operating Margin

66.90%

EBITDA

$4.55B

Return on Equity

13.60%

Return on Assets

1.74%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

10.40%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

16.10%

How profitable and efficient is CME's business model?
CME Group Inc. achieves a profit margin of 58.60%, meaning it retains $58.60 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 66.90% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 13.60% and ROA at 1.74%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are CME's recent growth trends?
CME Group Inc.'s revenue grew by 10.40% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings increased by 16.10% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$4.80

Dividend Yield

1.78%

Ex-Dividend Date

Sep 9, 2025

Dividend Date

Sep 25, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from CME?
CME Group Inc. offers a dividend yield of 1.78%, paying $4.80 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Sep 9, 2025.
How reliable is CME's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - CME Group Inc. pays $4.80 per share in dividends against earnings of $10.32 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 46.51%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Sep 25, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$98.1B

Revenue (TTM)

$6.43B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$17.89

Shares Outstanding

360.38M

Book Value/Share

$77.13

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CME's market capitalization and position?
CME Group Inc. has a market capitalization of $98.1B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 360.38M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CME's price compare to its book value?
CME Group Inc.'s book value per share is $77.13, while the current stock price is $263.42, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.42. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$283.83

7.75% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

3

Buy

3

Hold

8

Sell

1

Strong Sell

3

How reliable are analyst predictions for CME?
18 analysts cover CME with 33% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $283.83 implies 7.7% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CME?
Current analyst recommendations:3 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 05:18 AM

Active Alerts

No active alerts for this stock.

Be the first to set up an alert for CME and get notified when the price changes.

CME Group Inc (CME) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Exchange Monopoly Conquering Crypto's 24/7 Demands

Derivatives exchanges face a fundamental truth: they profit from volatility regardless of market direction. When Terry Duffy announced CME Group's expansion to 24/7 cryptocurrency trading in October 2025, he acknowledged that crypto's always-on nature demanded infrastructure evolution beyond traditional futures markets' daytime hours. The Q3 2025 results validated the strategy—cryptocurrency futures and options averaged 340,000 daily contracts, up 225% year-over-year, with newly launched Solana and XRP futures capturing institutional interest that previously lacked regulated venues. Despite total revenue declining 3% to $1.5 billion (reflecting broader market conditions), CME achieved the second-highest average daily volume in company history at 25.3 million contracts while maintaining 68.4% operating margins. For investors, CME represents a rare regulated monopoly that profits from market activity without directional risk—whether Bitcoin soars or crashes, trading volumes generate transaction fees.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

CME Group generates revenue through clearing and transaction fees charged when customers trade futures and options across six asset classes: interest rates (largest segment), equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, and metals—plus rapidly growing cryptocurrency derivatives. The company operates CME Globex (electronic trading platform serving 150 countries), CME Clearing (central counterparty providing risk management), BrokerTec (fixed-income markets), and EBS (FX spot trading).

The competitive moat is structural and nearly impregnable: CME holds regulatory licenses and clearing infrastructure that competitors cannot easily replicate, enjoys network effects where liquidity attracts more liquidity, and benefits from institutional switching costs—banks, hedge funds, and corporations standardize on CME products for hedging and speculation. The Google Cloud partnership announced in 2021 enhances the moat by modernizing infrastructure for faster execution and lower latency. The planned 24/7 crypto trading addresses the one weakness—crypto-native exchanges like Coinbase and Binance offered always-on trading that CME couldn't match during U.S. market hours. Continuous trading levels that playing field while adding CME's regulatory credibility and institutional-grade clearing.

Financial Performance

  • •Q3 2025 Revenue: $1.5B (-3% YoY), adjusted operating income $1.1B, operating margin 68.4%
  • •Q3 ADV: 25.3 million contracts (2nd highest in history), demonstrating sustained trading activity
  • •Crypto Volumes: 340K ADV (+225% YoY), driven by Solana and XRP futures launches
  • •Market Data Revenue: $203M (record high, +14% YoY), high-margin recurring revenue stream
  • •Q1 2025 Record: $1.6B revenue (+10%), 29.8M ADV (highest ever), $1.3B clearing/transaction fees
  • •FY2025 Outlook: Adjusted EPS $10.72 (+4.5% vs. $10.26 in FY2024)
  • •Stock Performance: +41% over 52 weeks vs. S&P 500 +13.4%

The Q3 revenue decline reflects lower interest rate volatility and equity index trading vs. elevated Q3 2024 levels, but crypto and market data growth offset some weakness.

Growth Catalysts

  • •24/7 Crypto Trading: Launching early 2026, captures institutional crypto volume 24/7, competing with unregulated exchanges
  • •Crypto Product Expansion: Solana and XRP futures success validates launching additional crypto derivatives
  • •Google Cloud Infrastructure: Modernized platform enables faster innovation, lower costs, broader global access
  • •Interest Rate Volatility: Fed policy uncertainty drives hedging demand in CME's largest segment
  • •Market Data Monetization: Record $203M Q3 revenue shows pricing power in high-margin data sales
  • •International Growth: CME Globex reaches 150 countries, emerging markets adoption of derivatives hedging
  • •M&A Opportunities: Terry Duffy indicated openness to acquisitions of complementary exchanges/platforms

Risks & Challenges

  • •Revenue Concentration: Interest rate products dominate; prolonged low volatility compresses volumes/revenue
  • •Regulatory Risk: 24/7 crypto trading requires CFTC approval; conditions or delays possible
  • •Competition from Crypto Exchanges: Coinbase, Binance, Kraken offer spot trading CME doesn't; futures-only limits appeal
  • •Economic Recession: Severe downturns reduce trading activity across asset classes simultaneously
  • •Technology Disruption: DeFi protocols and blockchain-based clearing could theoretically disrupt traditional exchanges long-term
  • •Clearing Member Defaults: Extreme market events could expose CME Clearing to counterparty risks
  • •Market Data Price Resistance: Clients push back on data pricing increases, threatening high-margin revenue stream

Competitive Landscape

In U.S. derivatives, CME competes with ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, owner of NYSE), Cboe Global Markets (options specialist), and Nasdaq for futures/options volume. CME dominates interest rate futures, agricultural commodities, and equity index futures, while ICE leads energy derivatives and Cboe dominates equity options. The competitive dynamic resembles oligopoly—each exchange has product areas where network effects create near-monopolies.

In cryptocurrency derivatives, CME battles crypto-native exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken offering perpetual swaps) and traditional competitors (ICE launching Bakkt Bitcoin futures). CME's advantage is regulatory certainty—institutions prefer CFTC-regulated markets for compliance and risk management. The 24/7 trading launch addresses CME's primary disadvantage (limited hours) while preserving regulatory credibility advantages. Terry Duffy's strategy focuses on institutional customers seeking regulated venues rather than retail traders preferring crypto exchanges' spot markets. This positioning sustains margins (68.4% operating margin) that crypto exchanges cannot match despite higher volumes.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Income-oriented investors seeking stable exchange revenue with modest growth (4.5% EPS growth)
  • ✓Those wanting exposure to market volatility without directional risk (CME profits from activity)
  • ✓Crypto bulls seeking regulated institutional infrastructure plays
  • ✓Dividend investors valuing exchange cash flow consistency
  • ✓Long-term holders (10+ years) betting on derivatives market growth

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors requiring double-digit revenue/EPS expansion (mature exchange business)
  • ✗Traders seeking high volatility (stock is relatively stable utility-like holding)
  • ✗Those bearish on traditional finance vs. DeFi disruption long-term
  • ✗Value hunters (stock trading near highs after 41% 52-week run)

Investment Thesis

CME Group offers a rare combination in public markets: regulated monopoly economics, 68.4% operating margins, and exposure to multiple asset class volatility without directional market risk. The bull case centers on Terry Duffy successfully launching 24/7 crypto trading in early 2026, capturing institutional cryptocurrency volume that currently flows to unregulated exchanges. With crypto volumes already up 225% year-over-year and Solana/XRP futures demonstrating product-market fit, CME could dominate regulated crypto derivatives the way it dominates interest rate futures. The Google Cloud partnership modernizes infrastructure for global expansion, while market data revenue ($203 million in Q3, +14%) provides high-margin recurring income that smooths transaction fee volatility.

The bear case questions whether 4.5% EPS growth justifies current valuations after a 41% 52-week rally. Interest rate product revenue depends on Fed policy volatility—if rates stabilize, CME's largest segment faces volume pressure. Crypto derivatives remain tiny relative to overall revenue; even explosive growth won't move the needle materially for years. DeFi protocols could theoretically disintermediate traditional clearing long-term, though regulatory moats protect CME for the foreseeable future. For investors seeking stable, monopoly-like exposure to financial market activity with modest growth and dividends, CME justifies allocation. The stock functions as a volatility hedge—it tends to outperform during uncertain markets when trading activity spikes. Not suitable for aggressive growth investors given mature business dynamics.

Conclusion

Hold for current investors, cautious buy on dips below $240. CME offers monopoly-like exchange economics with 68.4% margins and exposure to crypto growth through regulated derivatives. The 24/7 trading launch provides upside catalyst, while market data revenue adds stability. After 41% 52-week gains, stock is fairly valued absent major volatility increases. Suitable for defensive portfolios seeking financial infrastructure exposure with modest growth and dividends. Position size 2-4% as satellite holding.
Bull Case
$280-300 (13-21% upside if 24/7 crypto succeeds and interest rate volatility increases)
Base Case
$250-270 (1-9% upside, matching FY2025 4.5% EPS growth plus dividend)
Bear Case
$215-235 (down 8-14% if interest rate volumes decline and crypto adoption disappoints)

Stay Ahead of the Market with CME Group Inc. Alerts

Set up price alerts for CME Group Inc. and get notified instantly when the price hits your target. Never miss an important price movement again.