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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Stock

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG): The Fast-Casual Giant Facing First Comp Decline Since 2020 Amid Consumer Pullback

When Scott Boatwright became Chipotle's CEO in November 2024 after serving as interim chief since August, he inherited a restaurant chain entering unfamiliar territory: negative comparable store sales. Q1 2025 delivered the company's first comp decline (-0.4%) since 2020, followed by accelerating deterioration to -4.0% in Q2 as consumers pulling back starting February cited economic uncertainty as the overwhelming reason for reducing visit frequency. Despite $3.1 billion in Q2 revenue (+3.0% year-over-year) and digital sales holding steady at 35.5% of total sales, restaurant-level margins compressed 150 basis points to 27.4% as transaction declines outpaced Chipotle's pricing power. Boatwright brought in Jason Kidd as COO in May 2025 to oversee 3,800+ locations while planning 315-345 new restaurants (80%+ with Chipotlanes for digital orders). The strategy: weather near-term consumer weakness through aggressive expansion and operational excellence while maintaining digital momentum that competitors cannot match. For investors, CMG tests whether premium fast-casual can sustain growth when middle-income consumers trade down.

52-Week Range

$66.74 - $38.30

-50.07% from high · +-13.00% from low

Avg Daily Volume

15,863,615

20-day average

100-day avg: 17,627,542

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

34.68

Above market average

Forward P/E

28.33

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

1.72

Reasonably valued

Price to Book

15.23

EV/EBITDA

24.29

EPS (TTM)

$1.13

Price to Sales

4.56

Beta

1.02

Similar volatility to market

How is CMG valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 34.68, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 28.33 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 1.72 indicates reasonable value when growth is considered.
What is CMG's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.02, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is roughly as volatile as the market, moving in line with broad market trends. This moderate beta suggests the stock offers market-level returns without excessive volatility. The price-to-book ratio of 15.23 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

13.30%

Operating Margin

18.40%

EBITDA

$2.34B

Return on Equity

42.60%

Return on Assets

13.70%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

3.00%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-3.00%

How profitable and efficient is CMG's business model?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. achieves a profit margin of 13.30%, meaning it retains $13.30 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This represents a solid margin typical of well-run businesses, showing the company can effectively balance revenue generation with cost control. The operating margin of 18.40% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 42.60% and ROA at 13.70%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are CMG's recent growth trends?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s revenue grew by 3.00% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings decreased by 3.00% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against RESTAURANTS industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$52.8B

Revenue (TTM)

$11.58B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$8.53

Shares Outstanding

1.34B

Book Value/Share

$2.63

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CMG's market capitalization and position?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has a market capitalization of $52.8B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 1.34B shares outstanding, the company's ownership is widely distributed. As a participant in the RESTAURANTS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CMG's price compare to its book value?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s book value per share is $2.63, while the current stock price is $33.32, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 12.67. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$57.09

71.34% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

4

Buy

22

Hold

9

Sell

0

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for CMG?
35 analysts cover CMG with 74% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The strong bullish consensus may already be priced in. The consensus target of $57.09 implies 71.3% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CMG?
Current analyst recommendations:4 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 9 Hold, 00The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Oct 1, 2025, 06:44 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

40.37

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$40.83

-18.39% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$48.78

-31.69% below MA-200

MACD Line

-0.03

MACD Signal

0.11

MACD Histogram

-0.14

Bearish

What does CMG's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for CMG is currently 40.37, indicating the stock is in neutral territory (40-60 range). Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, suggesting consolidation or balanced market forces. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this confirms bearish conditions.
How should traders interpret CMG's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.03 below the signal line at 0.11, with histogram at -0.14. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($40.83) is below the 200-day MA ($48.78), forming a death cross pattern that often warns of extended weakness. Price is currently below both MAs, confirming weakness.

Indicators last updated: Oct 30, 2025, 01:37 PM

Active Alerts

Alert Condition
MA Breakout (Bullish)
Threshold
50 days
Created
Oct 28, 2025, 03:40 PM
Alert Condition
Forward P/E falls below
Threshold
27 x
Created
Oct 15, 2025, 04:15 PM

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Fast-Casual Leader Navigating First Traffic Decline in Five Years

Few restaurant chains sustain uninterrupted comparable sales growth for years. When Chipotle reported Q1 2025 comps down 0.4%—the first decline since pandemic-ravaged 2020—it signaled the end of an extraordinary run. Q2 accelerated the deterioration to -4.0% as transactions fell 4.9%, with CEO Scott Boatwright acknowledging that consumers started pulling back in February due to economic uncertainty. Customer surveys revealed saving money amid economic concerns as the overwhelming driver of reduced visit frequency. Despite revenue growing 3.0% to $3.1 billion (unit expansion offsetting same-store declines) and digital sales maintaining 35.5% penetration, restaurant-level margins compressed 150 basis points to 27.4% as fixed costs couldn't flex with lower traffic. Boatwright's response: double down on expansion (315-345 new units in 2025) and operational excellence under new COO Jason Kidd, betting that Chipotle's premium positioning and digital infrastructure create resilience that mass-market competitors lack.

Business Model & Competitive Positioning

Chipotle generates revenue by selling customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads through 3,800+ company-operated restaurants (minimal franchising) across the U.S., Canada, UK, France, Germany, Kuwait, and UAE. The company pioneered fast-casual Mexican dining with ingredients sourced for quality (responsibly raised meats, organic produce where feasible) at price points ($10-15 average check) between QSR (McDonald's, Taco Bell) and full-service restaurants.

What differentiates Chipotle is digital infrastructure maturity. At 35.5% digital sales penetration, the company leads fast-casual through investments in mobile app ordering, delivery partnerships (DoorDash, Uber Eats), and Chipotlane drive-thrus optimized for digital pickup (80%+ of new units). This creates competitive moats: customer data for personalized marketing, higher average checks on digital orders, and operational efficiency gains from advance ordering. The company-operated model (vs. franchising) ensures brand consistency and margin control but requires more capital for expansion—offset by industry-leading unit economics delivering mid-to-high 20% restaurant-level margins even during traffic downturns.

Financial Performance

  • •Q1 2025: Revenue $2.9B (+6.4% YoY), comps -0.4% (transactions -2.3%, check +1.9%), digital sales 35.4%
  • •Q2 2025: Revenue $3.1B (+3.0% YoY), comps -4.0% (transactions -4.9%, check +0.9%), digital sales 35.5%
  • •Restaurant Margins: Q2 margin 27.4% (-150bps YoY), reflecting transaction deleverage on fixed costs
  • •Adjusted EPS: Q2 declined 3% year-over-year despite revenue growth
  • •Unit Growth: 3,800+ restaurants, targeting 315-345 net new openings in 2025 (80%+ with Chipotlanes)
  • •FY2025 Outlook: Management anticipates flat comparable sales for full year
  • •Next Earnings: Q3 2025 results scheduled October 29, 2025 after market close

The Q2 -4.0% comp represents traffic deterioration acceleration, suggesting consumer pressure intensifying rather than stabilizing.

Growth Catalysts & Strategic Initiatives

  • •Aggressive Unit Growth: 315-345 new restaurants in 2025 drives revenue even if comps remain negative
  • •Chipotlane Expansion: 80%+ of new units feature digital-optimized drive-thrus improving convenience/throughput
  • •Automation Investments: Kitchen automation (robotic bowl assembly, automated ingredient prep) could improve margins
  • •International Expansion: Nascent presence in Europe/Middle East provides long-term growth beyond saturated U.S. markets
  • •Digital Innovation: 35.5% penetration creates data advantages for personalized marketing and menu optimization
  • •Menu Innovation: Summer marketing initiatives and limited-time offerings can drive visit frequency recovery
  • •Economic Recovery: Consumer spending rebound would reverse comp declines given Chipotle's brand strength

Risks & Challenges

  • •Consumer Spending Weakness: Middle-income consumers trading down amid economic uncertainty drives transaction declines
  • •Margin Compression: Fixed cost deleverage as comps decline; labor inflation compounds pressure
  • •Competition Intensification: QSR players (Taco Bell, McDonald's) offering value menus capture trade-down customers
  • •Food Safety Risk: Historical E. coli incidents create brand vulnerability; any outbreak severely damages traffic
  • •Price Ceiling: $10-15 average checks limit pricing power when consumers prioritize value over quality
  • •New Unit Cannibalization: Aggressive expansion in existing markets may cannibalize sales at older locations
  • •Execution Risk: New CEO Boatwright and COO Kidd leading during first major downturn tests leadership capability

Competitive Landscape

In fast-casual, Chipotle competes with Panera Bread, Sweetgreen, CAVA, and Shake Shack for quality-conscious consumers willing to pay premiums. Chipotle leads in scale (3,800+ units vs. competitors' hundreds), digital penetration, and brand recognition. In broader quick-service, Chipotle battles Taco Bell (YUM Brands), Qdoba, and Moe's Southwest Grill for Mexican food share. Taco Bell's value positioning ($5-7 checks) captures trade-down customers during economic weakness, while Chipotle's premium positioning ($10-15) suffers when budgets tighten.

What differentiates Chipotle is the combination of digital maturity and company-operated model. While competitors franchise aggressively (enabling faster unit growth but sacrificing margin control), Chipotle owns nearly all locations, ensuring consistent operations and capturing full economics. The 35.5% digital sales penetration exceeds most QSR competitors, providing customer data and operational efficiency advantages. Scott Boatwright's challenge is leveraging these advantages to stabilize traffic despite macro headwinds that affect all restaurants. The Q2 -4.0% comp suggests even differentiated concepts struggle when consumers prioritize value.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Long-term growth investors (5+ years) betting on consumer spending recovery and unit growth
  • ✓Those believing Chipotle's digital/brand advantages create resilience vs. QSR competitors
  • ✓Investors comfortable with 10-20% volatility during economic cycles
  • ✓Bulls on premium fast-casual gaining share post-downturn as differentiation matters
  • ✓Those seeking restaurant exposure without franchisee complications (company-operated model)

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Value investors requiring low multiples (CMG trades at premium despite comp declines)
  • ✗Income investors (no dividend, growth stock orientation)
  • ✗Those bearish on consumer discretionary spending given middle-income pressure
  • ✗Short-term traders expecting near-term comp recovery (FY2025 guidance: flat comps)
  • ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with food safety/brand reputation vulnerabilities

Investment Thesis

Chipotle presents a growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity if Scott Boatwright can navigate the first major downturn in the company's post-2015 recovery. The bull case rests on aggressive unit expansion (315-345 new restaurants in 2025) driving revenue growth even as comps remain pressured, with digital infrastructure providing operational leverage that improves margins once traffic stabilizes. At 35.5% digital penetration, Chipotle captures customer data and frequency advantages competitors lack. The Chipotlane format (80%+ of new units) addresses convenience demands while improving throughput. If consumer spending rebounds in 2026 and comps return to low-single-digit growth, the stock could re-rate higher from current levels that reflect near-term pessimism.

The bear case questions whether premium fast-casual can sustain growth when consumers prioritize value over quality during economic uncertainty. The Q2 -4.0% comp (transactions down 4.9%) suggests accelerating deterioration rather than stabilization. With $10-15 average checks, Chipotle faces pricing ceiling constraints as Taco Bell and McDonald's offer sub-$10 value meals capturing trade-down traffic. Restaurant-level margins compressing 150 basis points to 27.4% demonstrates operating leverage working in reverse—unit expansion partially offsets fixed cost deleverage, but margin pressure persists. For growth investors with 3-5 year horizons comfortable with cyclical volatility, CMG offers exposure to industry-leading fast-casual with digital moats. The unit growth story provides downside support, but near-term (6-12 months) expect continued comp weakness until economic sentiment improves.

Conclusion

Hold for current investors with long-term horizons (3-5 years), avoid new positions until comp stability emerges. The -4.0% Q2 comp suggests accelerating traffic deterioration that may worsen before improving. Unit growth (315-345 new restaurants) provides revenue floor, and 35.5% digital penetration creates operational advantages. However, premium fast-casual faces structural headwinds when consumers trade down. Wait for evidence of comp stabilization (flattish to low-single-digit positive) before buying. Not suitable for near-term growth seekers.
Bull Case
$68-75 (21-34% upside if consumer spending recovers and comps return positive by 2026)
Base Case
$55-62 (0-10% upside assuming flat-to-low-single-digit comps through 2025)
Bear Case
$42-48 (16-26% downside if consumer weakness persists and comps remain negative through 2026)

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