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Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Stock

Canadian National Railway Company Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI): North America's 19,000-Mile Rail Network Powering Continental Commerce

Under CEO Tracy Robinson's leadership since February 2022, Canadian National Railway has transformed from a defensive utility into a growth-oriented logistics powerhouse. CN's unique coast-to-coast-to-coast network connects three oceans—Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico—providing unmatched access to key markets. The railway's precision scheduled railroading (PSR) methodology, pioneered by former CEO Hunter Harrison, delivers industry-leading operating ratios below 60%. Recent investments in automation, including distributed power locomotives and automated track inspection, position CN to capture market share from trucking as supply chains prioritize sustainability. With intermodal volumes growing 8% annually and tight capacity in North American trucking, CN's irreplaceable infrastructure offers inflation-protected returns through a business model unchanged for 150 years.

52-Week Range

$110.23 - $90.48

-13.38% from high · +5.53% from low

Avg Daily Volume

1,315,308

20-day average

100-day avg: 1,599,892

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

18.01

Near market average

Forward P/E

15.90

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

2.05

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

3.81

EV/EBITDA

11.60

EPS (TTM)

$5.18

Price to Sales

3.40

Beta

0.86

Less volatile than market

How is CNI valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Canadian National Railway Company trades at a P/E ratio of 18.01, which is near the market average of approximately 20, suggesting the market views it as fairly valued relative to its earnings. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 15.90 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 2.05 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is CNI's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.86, Canadian National Railway Company is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 3.81 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

26.60%

Operating Margin

41.30%

EBITDA

$8.81B

Return on Equity

22.30%

Return on Assets

7.75%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-1.30%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

6.70%

How profitable and efficient is CNI's business model?
Canadian National Railway Company achieves a profit margin of 26.60%, meaning it retains $26.60 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 41.30% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 22.30% and ROA at 7.75%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are CNI's recent growth trends?
Canadian National Railway Company's revenue declined by 1.30% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings increased by 6.70% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against RAILROADS industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$3.47

Dividend Yield

3.72%

Ex-Dividend Date

Sep 8, 2025

Dividend Date

Sep 29, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from CNI?
Canadian National Railway Company offers a dividend yield of 3.72%, paying $3.47 per share annually. This above-average yield of 2-4% provides meaningful income while still allowing the company to reinvest for growth. It compares favorably to the S&P 500 average and offers competitive returns versus bonds in the current rate environment. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Sep 8, 2025.
How reliable is CNI's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Canadian National Railway Company pays $3.47 per share in dividends against earnings of $5.18 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 66.89%. This high payout ratio of 60-90% leaves limited earnings for reinvestment. While currently sustainable, there's less buffer for dividend growth or protection during earnings downturns. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Sep 29, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$58.2B

Revenue (TTM)

$17.14B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$27.28

Shares Outstanding

624.20M

Book Value/Share

$34.44

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CNI's market capitalization and position?
Canadian National Railway Company has a market capitalization of $58.2B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 624.20M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the RAILROADS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CNI's price compare to its book value?
Canadian National Railway Company's book value per share is $34.44, while the current stock price is $95.48, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.77. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$107.73

12.83% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

5

Buy

9

Hold

15

Sell

1

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for CNI?
30 analysts cover CNI with 47% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $107.73 implies 12.8% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CNI?
Current analyst recommendations:5 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Nov 1, 2025, 02:31 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

40.79

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$94.80

0.72% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$98.24

-2.81% below MA-200

MACD Line

-0.04

MACD Signal

0.21

MACD Histogram

-0.25

Bearish

What does CNI's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for CNI is currently 40.79, indicating the stock is in neutral territory (40-60 range). Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, suggesting consolidation or balanced market forces. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
How should traders interpret CNI's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.04 below the signal line at 0.21, with histogram at -0.25. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($94.80) is below the 200-day MA ($98.24), forming a death cross pattern that often warns of extended weakness. Price is currently between the MAs, suggesting transition.

Indicators last updated: Oct 30, 2025, 12:30 AM

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Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Railroad That Connects Three Oceans

When Tracy Robinson became CN's first female CEO in 2022, she inherited a 19,000-mile network that took 150 years to build—and cannot be replicated at any price. CN's tracks stretch from Halifax on the Atlantic, through Montreal and Toronto, across the Prairies to Vancouver on the Pacific, with a critical artery south through Chicago to the Gulf Coast. This geography creates natural monopolies: only CN can move western Canadian grain to tidewater for export, only CN connects the Port of Prince Rupert (closest North American port to Asia) to the U.S. Midwest, and only CN offers single-line service between Canada's three largest metros and the Gulf.

Robinson's focus on service reliability over pure cost-cutting differentiates her approach from predecessors. Under PSR, CN runs longer, faster trains on fixed schedules—like an airline. This precision enables customers to reduce inventory, plan production, and avoid costly disruptions. The result: CN moves 3 million carloads annually with 20,000 employees, generating $15 billion in revenue at margins twice those of trucking companies.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

CN's moat is literal: 19,000 miles of exclusive steel track crisscrossing North America's most productive agricultural and industrial regions. Rail economics favor incumbents—building new track costs $2-3 million per mile, requires decades of regulatory approvals, and faces fierce community opposition. CN's network took $100+ billion in cumulative investment since 1919 and cannot be duplicated. This creates a legal duopoly with Canadian Pacific Kansas City for Canadian freight, and an oligopoly with Union Pacific, BNSF, Norfolk Southern, and CSX in the U.S. Customers have minimal alternatives for long-haul bulk shipping, granting CN pricing power that consistently outpaces inflation.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $15.1 billion TTM with 4% annual organic growth
  • •Operating Ratio: 58.5% (lower is better) vs. 60-62% industry average—best-in-class efficiency
  • •Free Cash Flow: $4.2 billion annually supporting $2B+ in dividends and buybacks
  • •ROIC: 14% return on invested capital demonstrating pricing power
  • •Leverage: 2.2x net debt/EBITDA, conservative for infrastructure asset

Growth Catalysts

  • •Intermodal Surge: Trucking capacity constraints and driver shortages driving 8-10% annual intermodal growth as freight shifts from highway to rail
  • •Canadian LNG Exports: LNG Canada facility in Kitimat (2025 startup) will generate 100+ trains weekly moving pipe, modules, and equipment
  • •Nearshoring/Reshoring: Manufacturers relocating from Asia to Mexico/U.S. increasing cross-border rail volumes via CN's unique network
  • •Grain Supercycle: Global food demand and climate-driven shifts in production patterns benefiting Canadian Prairie grain exports through CN's western corridor
  • •Automation Gains: Automated inspection drones, distributed power locomotives, and AI-based dispatching reducing costs 2-3% annually

Risks & Challenges

  • •Economic Cyclicality: Revenue highly correlated with GDP, industrial production, and commodity prices—recessions hit volumes hard
  • •Regulatory Risk: Canadian and U.S. rail regulators can mandate service improvements, cap rates, or force asset sharing
  • •Labor Relations: Unionized workforce (Teamsters Canada) can strike, disrupting service and damaging customer relationships
  • •Energy Transition: Coal (15% of revenue) declining as utilities shift to renewables—20% volume drop expected by 2030
  • •Capital Intensity: Requires $3+ billion annual capex to maintain track, locomotives, and infrastructure—limits free cash flow flexibility

Competitive Landscape

CN competes in a rational oligopoly. In Canada, only CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) operate Class I railways—both avoid destructive price wars, instead focusing on service quality and network optimization. In the U.S., CN's routes overlap with Union Pacific (western corridor), BNSF (grain and intermodal), and Norfolk Southern/CSX (eastern connections). However, CN's differentiation lies in its exclusive Canadian network and Prince Rupert-Chicago corridor—the fastest route from Asia to the U.S. heartland.

Trucking represents the primary competitive threat, capturing 70% of freight ton-miles in North America. But rails move freight 3-4x more fuel-efficiently, making CN's value proposition stronger as carbon regulations tighten and diesel costs rise. For bulk commodities (grain, coal, potash, lumber), rail holds 80%+ market share—trucks cannot compete on cost or capacity.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Income investors seeking stable dividends with modest growth (1.9% yield + 10% annual increases)
  • ✓Defensive investors wanting recession-resistant infrastructure exposure
  • ✓ESG-focused portfolios (rail is 3-4x more carbon-efficient than trucking)
  • ✓Long-term holders (10+ years) betting on reshoring and North American trade growth
  • ✓Inflation hedgers (pricing power consistently exceeds CPI)

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors seeking tech-like returns (CN grows 4-6% annually)
  • ✗Short-term traders (stock moves slowly, limited volatility)
  • ✗Value hunters (trades at 20x earnings, premium to rails historically)
  • ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with labor/regulatory risks

Investment Thesis

Canadian National Railway embodies the Buffett ideal: an irreplaceable asset earning high returns on capital with minimal reinvestment needs. CN's transcontinental network cannot be built today—environmental reviews alone would take decades, and costs would exceed $200 billion. This moat enables pricing 2-3% above inflation annually, converting to steady free cash flow and dividend growth. At 20x earnings, CN trades at a premium to Norfolk Southern (18x) and Union Pacific (19x), but justifies the valuation through superior operating efficiency and unique network advantages.

The investment case strengthens amid structural trends: trucking capacity constraints, nearshoring of manufacturing, and tightening carbon regulations all favor rail. CN's intermodal business (highest-margin segment) grows 8% annually, offsetting declines in coal. With Tracy Robinson emphasizing service reliability—critical after CN's 2021-2022 operational struggles—the railway is recapturing lost customers and market share. For patient investors, CN offers a rare combination: monopoly economics, inflation protection, and compounding through a business model that will endure for generations.

Conclusion

CN is a BUY for conservative, long-term investors seeking inflation-protected income and capital preservation. The railway's monopoly network, best-in-class operations, and 27-year dividend growth streak justify premium valuation. Best suited for retirement portfolios and defensive allocations. Not appropriate for growth-focused investors or those requiring high dividend yields (1.9% yield is modest).
Bull Case
$145 (20% upside) - Intermodal surges, operating ratio improves to 56%
Base Case
$130 (8% upside) - Steady volume growth, margins stable
Bear Case
$105 (13% downside) - Recession cuts volumes, labor strikes disrupt service

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