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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Stock

Capital One Financial Corporation Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Capital One Financial (COF): The $60B Digital Bank Redefining Consumer Lending with Data and Technology

CEO Richard Fairbank built Capital One from a 1994 credit card startup into a $60B financial services giant by treating lending as a data science problem. While traditional banks relied on FICO scores, Fairbank's team pioneered mass customization—using algorithms to price risk individually across millions of customers. Today, Capital One operates three businesses: Credit Cards (#3 issuer with $155B loans), Consumer Banking ($300B in deposits via 280 branches plus digital-only offerings), and Commercial Banking ($75B loans to mid-market companies). Recent strategic moves—acquiring Discover for $35B, migrating 100% to AWS cloud, launching Eno (AI-powered virtual assistant)—position COF as the tech-forward bank. With credit card spend rebounding post-pandemic, net interest margins expanding as rates stay elevated, and the Discover acquisition adding 30M new cardholders, Capital One offers leveraged exposure to consumer spending and fintech disruption.

52-Week Range

$243.31 - $141.84

-1.44% from high · +69.07% from low

Avg Daily Volume

4,043,896

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

81.39

Above market average

Forward P/E

11.24

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

0.64

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

1.33

EPS (TTM)

$2.94

Price to Sales

5.30

Beta

1.17

Similar volatility to market

How is COF valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Capital One Financial Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 81.39, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 11.24 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 0.64 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate.
What is COF's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.17, Capital One Financial Corporation is roughly as volatile as the market, moving in line with broad market trends. This moderate beta suggests the stock offers market-level returns without excessive volatility. The price-to-book ratio of 1.33 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

4.90%

Operating Margin

38.70%

Return on Equity

1.62%

Return on Assets

0.25%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

67.90%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

9.50%

How profitable and efficient is COF's business model?
Capital One Financial Corporation achieves a profit margin of 4.90%, meaning it retains $4.90 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 38.70% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 1.62% and ROA at 0.25%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are COF's recent growth trends?
Capital One Financial Corporation's revenue grew by 67.90% year-over-year, representing robust expansion that significantly outpaces typical market growth rates. This strong top-line performance suggests the company is successfully capturing market share or benefiting from favorable industry trends. Earnings increased by 9.50% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against CREDIT SERVICES industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$2.40

Dividend Yield

1.01%

Ex-Dividend Date

Nov 17, 2025

Dividend Date

Dec 1, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from COF?
Capital One Financial Corporation offers a dividend yield of 1.01%, paying $2.40 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Nov 17, 2025.
How reliable is COF's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Capital One Financial Corporation pays $2.40 per share in dividends against earnings of $2.94 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 81.63%. This high payout ratio of 60-90% leaves limited earnings for reinvestment. While currently sustainable, there's less buffer for dividend growth or protection during earnings downturns. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Dec 1, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$153.0B

Revenue (TTM)

$28.89B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$60.40

Shares Outstanding

635.73M

Book Value/Share

$170.52

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is COF's market capitalization and position?
Capital One Financial Corporation has a market capitalization of $153.0B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 635.73M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a major player in the CREDIT SERVICES industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does COF's price compare to its book value?
Capital One Financial Corporation's book value per share is $170.52, while the current stock price is $239.81, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.41. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$261.10

8.88% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

3

Buy

14

Hold

6

Sell

0

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for COF?
23 analysts cover COF with 74% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The strong bullish consensus may already be priced in. The consensus target of $261.10 implies 8.9% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on COF?
Current analyst recommendations:3 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 6 Hold, 00The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Dec 13, 2025, 08:20 AM

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Capital One Financial (COF) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Bank That Thinks Like a Tech Company

Richard Fairbank's Capital One runs on code, not bankers. The company employs 11,000 software engineers and data scientists—more than many tech unicorns—building proprietary machine learning models that approve/decline 15M credit decisions daily. This tech-first culture enabled Capital One to migrate 100% to AWS cloud (no other major bank has done this), launch mobile-first banking products, and operate one of the highest-converting credit card acquisition funnels in the industry. Fairbank's bet: superior algorithms generating better returns on the same credit risk. Evidence supports this—COF's 18% ROE outpaces JPMorgan (15%), Bank of America (12%), despite smaller scale.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Capital One makes money by: (1) Net Interest Income—borrowing at 2% (deposits), lending at 18% (credit cards), capturing 16% spread; (2) Interchange Fees—earning 2-3% on every credit card swipe; (3) Fee Income—late fees, annual fees on premium cards. The moat: data and algorithms. COF's 30 years of credit performance data trains models that identify profitable customers competitors reject or unprofitable ones competitors approve. This information asymmetry compounds—better models attract better customers, generating more data, improving models. However, the moat is contested: fintech lenders (Affirm, SoFi) and tech giants (Apple Card via Goldman Sachs) challenge COF's data advantage.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $36B TTM with net interest income (75%) and non-interest income (25%)
  • •Net Income: $7.5B (18% ROE) demonstrating pricing power and risk management
  • •Credit Losses: 3.5% net charge-off rate on cards vs. 2.5% pre-pandemic—normalizing but manageable
  • •Efficiency Ratio: 48% (lower is better)—technology enabling lean operations
  • •CET1 Capital: 13.5% well above 10% regulatory minimum—capacity for buybacks/M&A

Growth Catalysts

  • •Discover Acquisition: $35B deal (expected close 2025) adding 30M cardholders, payment network eliminating Visa/MC fees
  • •Travel Rebound: Venture card (travel rewards) benefiting from pent-up demand, premium card growth 12% annually
  • •Commercial Banking: Mid-market lending growing 8-10% as COF underprice megabanks using superior credit models
  • •Digital Deposits: 360 Performance Savings attracting $100B+ deposits at rates below wholesale funding costs
  • •AI Integration: Eno virtual assistant handling 100M+ customer interactions, reducing service costs 30%

Risks & Challenges

  • •Credit Cycle Risk: 60% loans are credit cards—recession drives charge-offs to 6-8%, halving earnings
  • •Regulatory Scrutiny: CFPB targeting late fees (proposal to cap at $8 vs. $30-40 currently)—$2B annual revenue at risk
  • •Discover Integration: $35B acquisition must deliver $700M+ synergies to justify price—execution risk
  • •Competition Intensification: Apple/Google entering payments, fintechs undercutting on rates, megabanks outspending on rewards
  • •Interest Rate Sensitivity: Falling rates compress net interest margin, reducing profitability 20-30%

Competitive Landscape

Capital One ranks #3 in U.S. credit cards behind JPMorgan Chase (22% market share) and Citi (12%), with COF at 11%. American Express dominates premium (Platinum, Gold), while Discover (soon part of COF) serves value-conscious consumers. COF differentiates through rewards innovation (Venture X, Savor for dining) and digital-first acquisition. In auto loans, COF competes with Ally Financial and Santander, leveraging dealership relationships and instant approval algorithms. Commercial banking pits COF against regional banks (Truist, Fifth Third) where COF's data models enable faster underwriting at tighter spreads.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Value investors seeking quality bank at 8x earnings (25% discount to JPM)
  • ✓Fintech enthusiasts wanting traditional bank with tech DNA
  • ✓Economic recovery plays (credit normalization boosts earnings)
  • ✓Buyback beneficiaries (COF repurchases 8-10% shares annually at current valuation)

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Risk-averse investors (credit card lending is cyclical, volatile)
  • ✗Recession fearful (earnings can halve in downturn)
  • ✗High-yield seekers (2% dividend is modest)
  • ✗ESG mandates (subprime lending controversial)

Investment Thesis

Capital One trades at 8x earnings—a 30% discount to JPMorgan (11x) despite comparable returns and superior technology. The market fears credit normalization (charge-offs rising from 2% to 3.5%) and regulatory risk (late fee caps). However, at 8x, COF prices in a mild recession already. The bull case: credit stabilizes at 3.5-4% charge-offs (manageable), Discover acquisition delivers $700M+ synergies (payment network saves $1B+ annually in Visa/MC fees), and AI-driven underwriting expands margins. If COF re-rates to 10x earnings (still below JPM), the stock reaches $200+50% upside. For contrarian value investors, COF offers asymmetric risk/reward: limited downside at 8x (book value provides floor at $140), meaningful upside if credit fears prove overdone.

Conclusion

COF is BUY for value/contrarian portfolios. Best entry on credit fear-driven selloffs to $140-150. Appropriate for investors with 3-5 year horizons believing credit cycle won't crater. Not suitable for recession-fearful or income-focused investors.
Bull Case
$210 (35% upside) - Credit stabilizes, Discover synergies exceed $1B, multiple re-rates to 10x
Base Case
$175 (13% upside) - Steady earnings growth, buybacks drive value, 9x multiple
Bear Case
$125 (19% downside) - Recession drives charge-offs to 6%, late fee caps enacted

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