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ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock

ConocoPhillips Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

ConocoPhillips (COP): The Marathon Oil Megamerger Unlocking $1 Billion in Synergies and 3.17% Yield

Ryan Lance has transformed ConocoPhillips into America's largest independent oil and gas producer through disciplined capital allocation and strategic M&A. The 2024 Marathon Oil acquisition—fully integrated by Q2 2025—added 446 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) while unlocking synergies far exceeding original forecasts. Q2 production hit 2,391 MBOED across premier U.S. basins: Permian (845 MBOED), Eagle Ford (408 MBOED), and Bakken (205 MBOED). Lance targets $1+ billion in company-wide cost reductions and margin enhancements by end-2026 through scale and technology deployment. With a forward P/E of 14.86, 3.17% dividend yield, and dominant positions in America's three most prolific oil plays, ConocoPhillips offers energy investors a rare combination of value, income, and operational leverage to commodity prices.

52-Week Range

$112.56 - $78.56

-18.82% from high · +16.32% from low

Avg Daily Volume

7,627,546

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.91

Below market average

Forward P/E

14.10

Earnings expected to decline

PEG Ratio

9.93

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

1.78

EV/EBITDA

5.27

EPS (TTM)

$7.46

Price to Sales

1.87

Beta

0.64

Less volatile than market

How is COP valued relative to its earnings and growth?
ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E ratio of 11.91, which is below the market average of approximately 20. This lower valuation could indicate the market has modest growth expectations, or it might represent an undervalued opportunity if the fundamentals are strong. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 14.10 is higher than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to decline over the next year. The PEG ratio of 9.93 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is COP's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.64, ConocoPhillips is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 1.78 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

15.50%

Operating Margin

19.70%

EBITDA

$25.14B

Return on Equity

15.90%

Return on Assets

8.27%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

2.10%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-21.20%

How profitable and efficient is COP's business model?
ConocoPhillips achieves a profit margin of 15.50%, meaning it retains $15.50 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This is an impressive margin, indicating strong pricing power and efficient cost management that allows the company to generate substantial profits. The operating margin of 19.70% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 15.90% and ROA at 8.27%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are COP's recent growth trends?
ConocoPhillips's revenue grew by 2.10% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings decreased by 21.20% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against OIL & GAS E&P industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$3.12

Dividend Yield

3.54%

Ex-Dividend Date

Aug 18, 2025

Dividend Date

Sep 2, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from COP?
ConocoPhillips offers a dividend yield of 3.54%, paying $3.12 per share annually. This above-average yield of 2-4% provides meaningful income while still allowing the company to reinvest for growth. It compares favorably to the S&P 500 average and offers competitive returns versus bonds in the current rate environment. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Aug 18, 2025.
How reliable is COP's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - ConocoPhillips pays $3.12 per share in dividends against earnings of $7.46 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 41.82%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Sep 2, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$111.0B

Revenue (TTM)

$59.39B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$48.48

Shares Outstanding

1.25B

Book Value/Share

$52.50

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is COP's market capitalization and position?
ConocoPhillips has a market capitalization of $111.0B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 1.25B shares outstanding, the company's ownership is widely distributed. As a major player in the OIL & GAS E&P industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does COP's price compare to its book value?
ConocoPhillips's book value per share is $52.50, while the current stock price is $91.38, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.74. This reasonable premium to book value suggests the market values the company's earnings power and intangible assets appropriately. Most profitable companies trade between 1-3x book value. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$113.78

24.51% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

8

Buy

15

Hold

4

Sell

0

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for COP?
27 analysts cover COP with 85% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The strong bullish consensus may already be priced in. The consensus target of $113.78 implies 24.5% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on COP?
Current analyst recommendations:8 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 4 Hold, 00The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Nov 1, 2025, 02:40 AM

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ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Marathon Oil acquisition was one of energy's boldest bets—a $22 billion all-stock deal announced when oil supermajors were retreating from shale. Ryan Lance wagered that scale and operational excellence could unlock value that smaller independents couldn't achieve alone. Q2 2025's results validate that thesis: ConocoPhillips now produces 2,391 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily, making it America's largest independent producer. The integration delivered synergies exceeding forecasts, positioning COP to extract $1+ billion in cost reductions and margin improvements by 2026. At 12.85 P/E with a 3.17% dividend, Lance has built an energy cash machine trading at value multiples while dominating the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

ConocoPhillips operates as a pure-play exploration and production (E&P) company focused on oil and gas extraction from world-class assets. Unlike integrated majors (Exxon, Chevron), COP owns no downstream refining or chemical operations—just upstream production. The portfolio concentrates on three U.S. unconventional plays (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken) plus conventional assets in Alaska, offshore Norway, Canada oil sands, and Southeast Asia LNG.

The competitive moat rests on acreage quality, operational scale, and capital discipline. Ryan Lance's strategy targets tier-one acreage in low-breakeven basins—assets that generate free cash flow even when oil prices dip to $40-50/barrel. The Marathon merger consolidated overlapping acreage in the Eagle Ford and Bakken, eliminating redundant infrastructure and optimizing drilling programs. COP's size ($120+ billion market cap) provides access to capital markets and technology investments smaller independents cannot afford. The company's 13-year CEO tenure brings execution consistency that volatile commodity markets reward with valuation premiums.

Financial Performance

  • •Q2 2025 Production: 2,391 MBOED, up 446 MBOED (+19%) from Q2 2024; exceeded guidance range
  • •Q2 2025 Earnings: $1.56 EPS, $1.42 adjusted EPS; lower YoY on price declines, offset by volume gains
  • •Basin Breakdown: Lower 48 delivered 1,508 MBOED (Permian 845, Eagle Ford 408, Bakken 205)
  • •Dividend Yield: 3.17% with track record of consistent payouts through commodity cycles
  • •Valuation: 12.85 P/E (current), 14.86 forward P/E—below integrated majors despite superior growth

Growth Catalysts

  • •Synergy Realization: $1B+ cost cuts and margin gains by end-2026 from Marathon integration—exceeding original targets
  • •Permian Expansion: 845 MBOED production with running room for multi-year inventory; tier-one acreage sustains growth
  • •Technology Leverage: Scale enables AI-driven drilling optimization and predictive maintenance reducing per-barrel costs
  • •Buyback Capacity: Free cash flow generation supports $20B+ authorization; share count reduction enhances per-share metrics
  • •LNG Exposure: Qatar and Southeast Asia LNG assets provide natural gas upside as global demand grows

Risks & Challenges

  • •Commodity Price Exposure: Earnings highly sensitive to oil/gas prices; $10 oil move swings annual EPS 20-30%
  • •Shale Decline Rates: Unconventional wells deplete 60-80% in first 3 years; requires continuous drilling to maintain production
  • •ESG Pressure: Energy transition narrative and institutional divestment create valuation ceiling and cost of capital headwinds
  • •Regulatory Risk: Permitting delays, federal lease restrictions, and methane regulations increase operating complexity
  • •Geopolitical Volatility: Global oil supply disruptions (OPEC+, Russia/Ukraine) create unpredictable price swings

Competitive Landscape

The independent E&P sector consolidates around scale. ConocoPhillips competes with integrated supermajors (ExxonMobil, Chevron) and large independents (EOG Resources, Devon Energy, Occidental). Post-Marathon, COP ranks as the largest pure-play independent by production volume.

CompanyProduction (BOE/D)P/E RatioDividend YieldKey Differentiator
ConocoPhillips (COP)~2,400K12.853.17%Marathon merger scale
ExxonMobil (XOM)~3,800K13.53.4%Integrated downstream
Chevron (CVX)~3,100K14.24.1%Global diversification
EOG Resources (EOG)~950K11.82.8%Premium Permian focus

Ryan Lance's competitive advantage lies in ruthless capital discipline. While supermajors chase energy transition projects with uncertain returns, Lance doubles down on low-cost barrels and shareholder distributions. COP's 12.85 P/E trades at a discount to integrated majors despite faster production growth and higher returns on capital employed. The market appears to penalize pure E&P exposure, creating potential value for contrarian energy investors.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Value investors seeking energy exposure at 12-13x P/E with 3%+ dividend yield
  • ✓Income-focused portfolios comfortable with commodity volatility (3.17% yield)
  • ✓Inflation hedge allocations (oil correlates with CPI over long periods)
  • ✓Contrarian investors betting on sustained $70-90 oil prices through 2020s

Less Suitable For

  • ✗ESG-focused portfolios (fossil fuel exposure conflicts with climate mandates)
  • ✗Growth investors seeking 15%+ annual revenue growth (mature industry, cyclical)
  • ✗Risk-averse investors unable to stomach 30-50% drawdowns during oil crashes
  • ✗Short-term traders (quarterly earnings driven by unpredictable commodity prices)

Investment Thesis

ConocoPhillips offers a disciplined energy bet under Ryan Lance's capital-return framework. The Marathon integration creates immediate value through $1+ billion in synergies while consolidating tier-one acreage in America's best basins. At 12.85 P/E and 3.17% yield, COP trades at compelling value relative to cash generation potential if oil remains above $70/barrel. The company's focus on shareholder distributions (buybacks + dividends) provides direct return of capital rather than wasteful empire-building.

The bear case centers on commodity price risk and energy transition headwinds. If oil collapses to $50/barrel on global recession or demand destruction from EVs, earnings could halve and the dividend faces pressure. ESG mandates create structural selling pressure from institutions, potentially capping valuation multiples permanently. However, Lance's 13-year track record demonstrates crisis navigation skill—COP survived 2014-2016 and 2020 oil crashes through balance sheet discipline. For investors willing to accept commodity volatility, COP's combination of scale, operational excellence, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation offers asymmetric value at current multiples.

Conclusion

ConocoPhillips is a BUY for value/income investors allocating 5-10% to energy with conviction that oil demand remains resilient through 2030. The 12.85 P/E offers margin of safety if Lance's synergy execution continues. Monitor quarterly free cash flow and capital return announcements as key indicators—sustained $4-6B annual buybacks justify current valuation. Avoid if ESG constraints prohibit fossil fuel holdings or if portfolio cannot tolerate commodity-driven volatility.
Bull Case
$140 (30% upside) — Oil averages $85-95, synergies exceed $1.5B, buybacks accelerate, multiple expands to 15x
Base Case
$115 (7% upside) — Oil ranges $70-80, synergies hit $1B target, dividend maintained, P/E holds 12-14x
Bear Case
$75 (30% downside) — Oil crashes to $50-60 on recession, dividend cut, ESG pressure intensifies, multiple compresses to 8-10x

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