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Carvana Co (CVNA) Stock

Carvana Co Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Carvana Co (CVNA): The 7,000% Recovery Story Wall Street Can't Agree On

When Carvana traded below $5 per share in December 2022, bankruptcy seemed inevitable. The online used car retailer carried $5 billion in debt, burned cash at alarming rates, and faced existential questions about its business model. Fast forward to 2025: CEO Ernie Garcia III has orchestrated one of the most dramatic corporate recoveries in recent history. The stock exploded 7,000% from its lows to over $360, Carvana generated $601 million in Q2 2025 EBITDA (41% unit growth), and crossed a $20 billion annual revenue run-rate. Garcia and his father have seen their combined net worth increase by $11 billion. Yet controversy persists. Hindenburg Research calls Carvana a "father-son accounting grift," the company still carries $4.8 billion in debt, and exposure to subprime auto loans raises default concerns. Investors face a binary choice: believe in Garcia's vision of becoming America's largest used car retailer, or heed warnings that this recovery is built on unsustainable leverage and creative accounting.

52-Week Range

$413.33 - $148.25

-25.04% from high · +108.98% from low

Avg Daily Volume

2,705,894

20-day average

100-day avg: 3,036,736

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

69.49

Above market average

Forward P/E

60.61

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

-0.13

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

31.50

EV/EBITDA

31.32

EPS (TTM)

$4.39

Price to Sales

2.19

Beta

3.56

More volatile than market

How is CVNA valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Carvana Co trades at a P/E ratio of 69.49, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 60.61 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of -0.13 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate.
What is CVNA's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 3.56, Carvana Co is significantly more volatile than the market. For every 10% market move, this stock tends to move 36% in the same direction. Higher beta stocks offer greater potential returns but with increased risk. The price-to-book ratio of 31.50 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

3.46%

Operating Margin

10.60%

EBITDA

$1.79B

Return on Equity

88.50%

Return on Assets

11.40%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

41.90%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

814.00%

How profitable and efficient is CVNA's business model?
Carvana Co achieves a profit margin of 3.46%, meaning it retains $3.46 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 10.60% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 88.50% and ROA at 11.40%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are CVNA's recent growth trends?
Carvana Co's revenue grew by 41.90% year-over-year, representing robust expansion that significantly outpaces typical market growth rates. This strong top-line performance suggests the company is successfully capturing market share or benefiting from favorable industry trends. Earnings increased by 814.00% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$35.7B

Revenue (TTM)

$16.27B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$124.32

Shares Outstanding

116.95M

Book Value/Share

$9.45

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is CVNA's market capitalization and position?
Carvana Co has a market capitalization of $35.7B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 116.95M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does CVNA's price compare to its book value?
Carvana Co's book value per share is $9.45, while the current stock price is $309.82, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 32.79. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$423.90

36.82% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

6

Buy

7

Hold

8

Sell

1

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for CVNA?
22 analysts cover CVNA with 59% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $423.90 implies 36.8% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on CVNA?
Current analyst recommendations:6 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, 0The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Nov 1, 2025, 02:30 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

33.76

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$364.94

-15.10% below MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$287.08

7.92% above MA-200

MACD Line

-2.60

MACD Signal

2.87

MACD Histogram

-5.47

Bearish

What does CVNA's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for CVNA is currently 33.76, indicating the stock is showing bearish momentum (30-40 range). Selling pressure is evident but not extreme. This often occurs during pullbacks in uptrends or early stages of downtrends. Combined with the price being below the 50-day moving average, this confirms bearish conditions.
How should traders interpret CVNA's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -2.60 below the signal line at 2.87, with histogram at -5.47. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The wide histogram confirms strong momentum. The 50-day MA ($364.94) is above the 200-day MA ($287.08), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently between the MAs, suggesting transition.

Indicators last updated: Oct 12, 2025, 12:44 AM

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Carvana Co (CVNA) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The turnaround is undeniable. Carvana reported Q3 2025 revenue of $5.65 billion (up 55% year-over-year) and crossed a $20 billion annualized revenue run-rate for the first time. Q2 2025 delivered 41% unit growth, 10.6% GAAP operating margin, and $601 million adjusted EBITDA—exceeding analyst estimates. Full-year 2024 generated $13.67 billion revenue, $404 million net income, and $1.38 billion adjusted EBITDA. For a company that nearly collapsed two years ago, these numbers represent a remarkable resurrection. Ernie Garcia III boldly proclaims Carvana is now "the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer in the U.S."

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Carvana pioneered online used car sales with a vertically integrated model: customers browse inventory online, complete financing digitally, and receive vehicles delivered to their homes or via signature car vending machines. The company purchases vehicles at wholesale auctions, reconditions them in centralized facilities, and sells direct to consumers—cutting out traditional dealerships. Carvana also originates auto loans, earning finance income beyond vehicle margins.

The competitive moat derives from network effects and brand recognition. As Carvana expands inventory and reconditioning capacity, it offers wider selection and faster delivery than competitors. The online experience—360-degree vehicle photos, detailed condition reports, 7-day return policies—reduces buyer anxiety about purchasing sight-unseen. However, CarMax, Vroom, and traditional dealers like AutoNation are replicating online sales capabilities, eroding Carvana's first-mover advantage. The moat is operational execution, not proprietary technology.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue Explosion: Q3 2025 $5.65B (+55% YoY), FY 2024 $13.67B, crossing $20B annualized run-rate
  • •Profitability Turnaround: FY 2024 $404M net income, Q2 2025 10.6% GAAP operating margin, $601M EBITDA
  • •Unit Growth: 41% unit sales growth Q2 2025, outpacing all major automotive retailers
  • •Debt Burden: $4.8B net debt (4.4x LTM adjusted EBITDA) remains existential risk despite deleveraging
  • •Stock Performance: 7,000% rally from $5 (2022 lows) to $363+ (2025), adding $11B to Garcia family wealth

Growth Catalysts

  • •Market Share Gains: Carvana targets 3M units/year (13.5% EBITDA margin) in 5-10 years vs ~400K units currently
  • •Operational Leverage: Fixed-cost reconditioning centers scale efficiently; margins expand as volume grows
  • •Consumer Shift: Online car buying accelerating post-pandemic; younger buyers prefer digital transactions
  • •Used Car Tailwinds: New vehicle prices remain elevated; affordability drives used car demand
  • •Finance Income: Originating auto loans creates high-margin recurring revenue beyond vehicle sales

Risks & Challenges

  • •Massive Debt Load: $4.8B net debt; rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and default risk
  • •Hindenburg Allegations: Short seller accuses Carvana of accounting manipulation and related-party transactions with Garcia family
  • •Subprime Exposure: Significant portion of financed loans subprime quality; economic downturn could trigger loan defaults
  • •Competitive Pressure: CarMax, AutoNation, traditional dealers copying online model with better balance sheets
  • •Execution Risk: Scaling to 3M units requires flawless operational execution; past over-expansion nearly bankrupted company
  • •Valuation Concerns: Stock rallied 7,000%; expectations are stratospheric—any growth disappointment triggers massive selloff

Competitive Landscape

Carvana competes with CarMax (largest used car retailer, $30B+ market cap, stronger balance sheet), Vroom (struggling online competitor), traditional dealer groups (AutoNation, Lithia Motors), and direct sellers via platforms like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist. CarMax offers omnichannel experiences (online + physical stores), no-haggle pricing, and decades of operational history. Traditional dealers leverage manufacturer relationships and local presence.

Carvana differentiates through pure-play online convenience and brand recognition (car vending machines generate viral marketing). However, Ernie Garcia's competitive advantage is fragile. As competitors match online capabilities and Carvana saturates early-adopter demographics, growth could decelerate sharply. The company's debt burden means it cannot afford a misstep—CarMax can weather downturns; Carvana risks insolvency if unit economics deteriorate during a recession.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓High-risk growth investors comfortable with extreme volatility
  • ✓Turnaround believers betting on Ernie Garcia's execution ability
  • ✓Momentum traders capitalizing on 7,000% rally continuation
  • ✓Contrarians betting against Hindenburg short thesis

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Conservative investors seeking stability (stock swings 10-20% weekly)
  • ✗Debt-averse investors (4.4x debt-to-EBITDA extremely high)
  • ✗Value investors (no traditional valuation metrics apply)
  • ✗Short-term income seekers (no dividend, cash used for debt repayment)

Investment Thesis

Carvana is the ultimate binary bet. Either Ernie Garcia has engineered one of history's greatest corporate turnarounds, building a sustainable competitive advantage in online used car retail—or the company is a leveraged house of cards propped up by creative accounting, related-party transactions, and unsustainable subprime lending. The bull case: Carvana legitimately generates $601 million quarterly EBITDA, margins expand as operational leverage kicks in, and the company becomes America's dominant used car platform. The bear case: debt burden crushes the company during the next recession, loan defaults explode, and Hindenburg's allegations prove accurate.

At $363 per share after a 7,000% rally, expectations are sky-high. Carvana must execute flawlessly to justify this valuation—hitting 3 million units annually while maintaining 13.5% EBITDA margins. Any stumble triggers catastrophic selloffs (stock fell 98% in 2021-2022; it can happen again). For aggressive speculators with high risk tolerance, Carvana offers asymmetric upside if Garcia's vision materializes. For prudent investors, the debt load, Hindenburg allegations, and execution risk make this a hard pass. If you invest, position-size accordingly—this is a 1-3% portfolio allocation at most, not a core holding.

Conclusion

Carvana is a SPECULATIVE HOLD for existing holders, AVOID for new buyers at $363. The stock has rallied 7,000%—much of the turnaround upside is priced in. Hindenburg allegations, $4.8B debt, and subprime exposure create existential risks. If you believe Ernie Garcia is the next automotive visionary, limit exposure to 1-3% of portfolio. If you value financial stability, avoid entirely. This is a casino bet, not an investment—treat it accordingly.
Bull Case
$500 (38% upside) - Garcia hits 3M unit target, margins expand, debt refinanced at lower rates
Base Case
$300 (17% downside) - Steady growth but margin pressure, debt remains manageable
Bear Case
$50 (86% downside) - Recession triggers loan defaults, debt spiral, operational collapse

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