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Deere & Company (DE) Stock

Deere & Company Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Deere & Company (DE): How John May's Precision Agriculture and Autonomy Push Transforms 187-Year-Old Tractor Maker

When John May became CEO of Deere & Company in 2019, the agricultural equipment industry faced structural headwinds: aging farmer demographics, consolidation reducing customer counts, and commodity crop prices pressuring capital spending. Six years later, May has repositioned John Deere as a precision agriculture technology leader—selling autonomous tractors that plant corn with GPS accuracy, combines equipped with computer vision for yield optimization, and Operations Center software subscriptions that farmers renew annually. Q4 fiscal 2024 results demonstrate the transformation: $15.4 billion revenue (equipment + technology), $2.4 billion operating profit, and record software attach rates. The iconic green tractors still generate 60% of revenue, but John Deere's future is data: soil analysis, predictive maintenance, autonomous navigation, and variable-rate seeding. Trading at 23x forward P/E with 1.34% dividend yield, DE is a bet that farming industrializes—larger operations demand John Deere's integrated technology to maximize yields and reduce labor costs. For investors, Deere offers industrial cyclicality (tied to commodity prices) with secular technology tailwinds (precision agriculture adoption).

52-Week Range

$530.24 - $398.95

-7.96% from high · +22.33% from low

Avg Daily Volume

1,435,717

20-day average

100-day avg: 1,296,348

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

25.32

Above market average

Forward P/E

28.41

Earnings expected to decline

PEG Ratio

1.51

Reasonably valued

Price to Book

4.96

EV/EBITDA

15.69

EPS (TTM)

$18.80

Price to Sales

2.82

Beta

1.01

Similar volatility to market

How is DE valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Deere & Company trades at a P/E ratio of 25.32, which is above the market average of approximately 20. This premium valuation suggests investors expect above-average growth or the company has competitive advantages justifying the higher multiple. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 28.41 is higher than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to decline over the next year. The PEG ratio of 1.51 indicates reasonable value when growth is considered.
What is DE's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.01, Deere & Company is roughly as volatile as the market, moving in line with broad market trends. This moderate beta suggests the stock offers market-level returns without excessive volatility. The price-to-book ratio of 4.96 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

11.00%

Operating Margin

12.60%

EBITDA

$8.74B

Return on Equity

20.40%

Return on Assets

3.82%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

13.10%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-13.70%

How profitable and efficient is DE's business model?
Deere & Company achieves a profit margin of 11.00%, meaning it retains $11.00 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This represents a solid margin typical of well-run businesses, showing the company can effectively balance revenue generation with cost control. The operating margin of 12.60% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 20.40% and ROA at 3.82%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are DE's recent growth trends?
Deere & Company's revenue grew by 13.10% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings decreased by 13.70% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$6.48

Dividend Yield

1.38%

Ex-Dividend Date

Dec 31, 2025

Dividend Date

Feb 9, 2026

What dividend income can investors expect from DE?
Deere & Company offers a dividend yield of 1.38%, paying $6.48 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Dec 31, 2025.
How reliable is DE's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Deere & Company pays $6.48 per share in dividends against earnings of $18.80 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 34.47%. This balanced payout between 30-60% suggests a sustainable dividend policy that allows both shareholder returns and business reinvestment. The dividend appears well-covered by earnings. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Feb 9, 2026.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$128.7B

Revenue (TTM)

$45.68B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$168.64

Shares Outstanding

270.33M

Book Value/Share

$96.00

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is DE's market capitalization and position?
Deere & Company has a market capitalization of $128.7B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 270.33M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a major player in the FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does DE's price compare to its book value?
Deere & Company's book value per share is $96.00, while the current stock price is $488.05, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.08. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$527.78

8.14% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

6

Buy

8

Hold

11

Sell

0

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for DE?
25 analysts cover DE with 56% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $527.78 implies 8.1% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on DE?
Current analyst recommendations:6 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 11 Hold, 00The bullish tilt suggests optimism about future prospects, though investors should conduct independent research.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Dec 13, 2025, 08:23 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

38.74

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$475.78

2.58% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$478.09

2.08% above MA-200

MACD Line

-7.76

MACD Signal

-6.86

MACD Histogram

-0.90

Bearish

What does DE's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for DE is currently 38.74, indicating the stock is showing bearish momentum (30-40 range). Selling pressure is evident but not extreme. This often occurs during pullbacks in uptrends or early stages of downtrends. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
How should traders interpret DE's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -7.76 below the signal line at -6.86, with histogram at -0.90. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($475.78) is below the 200-day MA ($478.09), forming a death cross pattern that often warns of extended weakness. Price is currently above both MAs, confirming strength.

Indicators last updated: Oct 15, 2025, 12:46 AM

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Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

In Q4 fiscal 2024 (ending October 2024), Deere reported $15.4 billion in equipment sales and $2.4 billion in operating profit, with production & precision agriculture segment margins exceeding 20%. John May's strategy is clear: transition John Deere from selling iron (tractors, combines) to selling technology-enabled outcomes (yield optimization, autonomous operations). The company now offers See & Spray (computer vision that sprays weeds selectively, reducing chemical costs 77%), ExactShot (planter that applies starter fertilizer only on seeds, cutting fertilizer use 60%), and fully autonomous 8R tractors that plant fields without operators. These technologies command premium pricing and generate recurring software revenue through John Deere Operations Center subscriptions. The investment thesis: as farms consolidate (average U.S. farm size growing 2-3% annually), large operators adopt John Deere's integrated systems to maximize efficiency. The stock trades at 23x forward P/E—reasonable for a business with 17%+ operating margins, technology-driven pricing power, and 1.34% dividend yield.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Deere operates three segments: Production & Precision Ag (large tractors, combines, sprayers, planters—60% of revenue), Small Ag & Turf (compact tractors, lawn mowers, golf course equipment—15% of revenue), and Construction & Forestry (excavators, backhoes, forestry harvesters—25% of revenue). Revenue comes from equipment sales, parts, service, and increasingly, software subscriptions (Operations Center, See & Spray, ExactShot licenses). The moat derives from dealer network strength (1,600+ dealers globally providing parts/service), brand loyalty (farmers buy John Deere for resale value and reliability), and technology integration (once a farmer adopts Operations Center, switching to AGCO or CNH Industrial requires replacing entire digital ecosystem).

John May's competitive advantage is vertical integration: Deere manufactures engines, transmissions, electronics, and software in-house, enabling tighter integration than competitors who assemble third-party components. The autonomous 8R tractor uses John Deere-designed GPS receivers, machine vision cameras, and steering controllers—competitors like AGCO rely on external tech partners. This integration creates switching costs: farmers investing in John Deere precision agriculture infrastructure (displays, receivers, software subscriptions) lock into the John Deere ecosystem. Aftermarket parts generate 30%+ gross margins, providing recurring revenue even during equipment sales downturns.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $60.2B in fiscal 2024 (slight decline from $61.2B in 2023 as cycle moderates)
  • •Operating Margin: 17.3% (sustained above 17% despite volume decline, demonstrating pricing power)
  • •Production & Precision Ag: $32B revenue, 20%+ operating margin (core business strength)
  • •Free Cash Flow: $6.8B in fiscal 2024, enabling $2.5B dividends and $5B share buybacks
  • •Valuation: Trading at 23x forward P/E vs historical range of 12-18x (premium reflects technology repositioning)

Growth Catalysts

  • •Precision Agriculture Adoption: See & Spray, ExactShot, AutoTrac attach rates growing to 40%+ of new equipment sales
  • •Autonomous Operations: Fully autonomous tractors (8R model) now commercially available—early adopters prove ROI, driving broader adoption
  • •Software Recurring Revenue: Operations Center subscriptions, connectivity fees create SaaS-like revenue streams with 80%+ gross margins
  • •Brazil & India Growth: Emerging markets adoption of mechanized agriculture drives tractor demand in underpenetrated regions
  • •Electrification: John Deere developing electric tractors and autonomous battery-powered platforms for specialty crops

Risks & Challenges

  • •Commodity Price Cyclicality: Farm equipment sales tied to crop prices (corn, soybeans, wheat)—commodity collapse kills farmer capex
  • •Right to Repair Controversy: Farmers criticize John Deere for locking down software/diagnostics, sparking regulatory backlash and brand damage
  • •Competition from AGCO/CNH: AGCO (Fendt, Massey Ferguson) and CNH Industrial (Case IH, New Holland) compete aggressively on price
  • •Tariff Exposure: 47% of revenue outside U.S.—trade wars, Chinese retaliation, or protectionism could disrupt supply chains/sales
  • •Aging Farmer Demographics: Average U.S. farmer age 58+—consolidation accelerates but shrinking customer base long-term headwind

Competitive Landscape

Deere dominates North American large ag equipment (35% market share in tractors, 50%+ in combines) but faces strong competition from AGCO Corporation (Fendt, Massey Ferguson, Challenger brands) and CNH Industrial (Case IH, New Holland). Globally, Deere holds ~20% market share. In construction equipment, Deere competes with Caterpillar, Komatsu, and Volvo CE. John May's differentiation is technology: no competitor matches John Deere's integration of autonomous navigation, computer vision, and precision agriculture software. AGCO partners with Trimble and Raven Industries for precision tech, but lacks vertical integration. CNH Industrial is developing autonomy but trails Deere by 2-3 years in commercialization.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Industrial investors seeking exposure to agriculture technology
  • ✓Dividend investors (1.34% yield, 30% payout ratio with growth potential)
  • ✓Long-term holders betting on farm consolidation and precision ag adoption
  • ✓Investors bullish on food security megatrend

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors (single-digit revenue growth expected)
  • ✗Investors avoiding cyclical exposure (commodity price swings)
  • ✗ESG purists (right-to-repair controversy, emissions from equipment)
  • ✗Traders seeking momentum (stock trades with commodity prices)

Investment Thesis

Deere & Company is transitioning from cyclical equipment manufacturer to technology-enabled agriculture leader. John May's precision agriculture strategy (autonomous tractors, computer vision, software subscriptions) creates pricing power and recurring revenue, justifying the 23x forward P/E premium to historical valuation. The near-term headwind is commodity price moderation reducing farmer capital spending. However, secular trends favor Deere: farms consolidating into larger operations that demand precision technology, global food security driving agricultural productivity investments, and labor shortages accelerating automation adoption. The 1.34% dividend yield is safe (30% payout ratio) with growth potential as free cash flow compounds.

Deere is best suited for long-term investors who can tolerate cyclicality in exchange for exposure to agricultural technology megatrends. The stock will trade with commodity prices short-term, but the 5-10 year thesis is farm industrialization: large operations adopt John Deere's integrated technology to maximize yields and reduce labor. The 23x forward P/E is fair for a business generating 17%+ operating margins, strong free cash flow, and technology-driven pricing power. Risks are commodity cycles and right-to-repair backlash, but John May's execution has been excellent.

Conclusion

Deere & Company is a HOLD at current levels ($415) and a BUY on pullbacks below $375. The company is successfully transitioning from cyclical equipment to technology-enabled agriculture, justifying valuation premium. The 1.34% dividend is safe with growth potential. Risks are commodity cyclicality and regulatory pressure on right-to-repair, but John May's precision agriculture strategy is working. Best suited for long-term industrial investors who believe in farm consolidation and technology adoption megatrends.
Bull Case
$500 (20% upside) - Commodity prices stabilize, precision ag adoption accelerates, software revenue hits $3B+
Base Case
$425 (2% upside) - Moderate growth, margins sustained at 17%, valuation stays at 22x P/E
Bear Case
$320 (23% downside) - Commodity price collapse, farmer capex dries up, right-to-repair regulation hurts margins

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