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Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Stock

Dollar Tree Inc Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR): The $16,000-Store Value Retail Giant Navigating Inflation and Transformation

Under CEO Rick Dreiling's leadership since 2022, Dollar Tree embarked on its most significant strategic transformation in company history—abandoning the sacred $1.00 price point that defined the brand for decades. The new multi-price strategy allows $1.25, $3, and $5 price points, enabling broader product assortment while maintaining value positioning. Simultaneously, Dreiling brings Dollar General turnaround expertise to fix underperforming Family Dollar, closing 1,000 stores while remodeling survivors with updated layouts and expanded coolers driving food penetration. Early results show promise—Dollar Tree same-store sales accelerated to 4-5% growth while Family Dollar stabilized after years of decline. The company's 16,000 store footprint generates $30 billion in annual revenue serving primarily lower-income consumers, providing defensive characteristics during economic weakness. However, execution risks around pricing strategy, Family Dollar turnaround, and competitive pressures from Walmart and Amazon create uncertainty for this value retail giant navigating profound industry shifts.

52-Week Range

$130.59 - $61.80

0.44% from high · +112.25% from low

Avg Daily Volume

4,694,905

20-day average

100-day avg: 4,107,844

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

24.64

Near market average

Forward P/E

19.57

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

1.12

Reasonably valued

Price to Book

7.46

EV/EBITDA

14.89

EPS (TTM)

$5.27

Price to Sales

1.40

Beta

0.75

Less volatile than market

How is DLTR valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Dollar Tree Inc trades at a P/E ratio of 24.64, which is near the market average of approximately 20, suggesting the market views it as fairly valued relative to its earnings. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 19.57 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 1.12 indicates reasonable value when growth is considered.
What is DLTR's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.75, Dollar Tree Inc is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 7.46 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

-15.40%

Operating Margin

6.73%

EBITDA

$2.14B

Return on Equity

20.10%

Return on Assets

5.11%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

9.40%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

10.60%

How profitable and efficient is DLTR's business model?
Dollar Tree Inc achieves a profit margin of -15.40%, meaning it retains $-15.40 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 6.73% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 20.10% and ROA at 5.11%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are DLTR's recent growth trends?
Dollar Tree Inc's revenue grew by 9.40% year-over-year, showing steady progress in growing the business. This positive trajectory indicates the company maintains competitive positioning in its markets. Earnings increased by 10.60% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against DISCOUNT STORES industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$26.5B

Revenue (TTM)

$18.96B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$90.36

Shares Outstanding

198.85M

Book Value/Share

$17.26

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is DLTR's market capitalization and position?
Dollar Tree Inc has a market capitalization of $26.5B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 198.85M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the DISCOUNT STORES industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does DLTR's price compare to its book value?
Dollar Tree Inc's book value per share is $17.26, while the current stock price is $131.17, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.60. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$115.27

12.12% downside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

2

Buy

8

Hold

14

Sell

2

Strong Sell

2

How reliable are analyst predictions for DLTR?
28 analysts cover DLTR with 36% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $115.27 implies -12.1% downside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on DLTR?
Current analyst recommendations:2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 14 Hold, 2 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Dec 13, 2025, 08:23 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

21.58

Oversold

50-Day Moving Average

$104.57

25.44% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$87.97

49.11% above MA-200

MACD Line

-4.44

MACD Signal

-3.96

MACD Histogram

-0.48

Bearish

What does DLTR's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for DLTR is currently 21.58, indicating the stock is in oversold territory (below 30). This indicates heavy selling pressure that may have pushed the price too low too fast. Oversold readings can present buying opportunities, but stocks can remain oversold in strong downtrends. Look for RSI to rise above 30 as a potential recovery signal. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
How should traders interpret DLTR's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -4.44 below the signal line at -3.96, with histogram at -0.48. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($104.57) is above the 200-day MA ($87.97), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently above both MAs, confirming strength.

Indicators last updated: Oct 8, 2025, 12:48 AM

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Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

In March 2024, Dollar Tree reported its first full year under multi-price architecture, with the new $3 and $5 zones generating higher-than-expected customer acceptance and basket sizes. For Rick Dreiling, this validated the risky decision to break from Everything's $1.00 heritage that purists considered sacrilege. With 40 million weekly customer transactions and presence in underserved rural communities ignored by big-box retailers, Dollar Tree's real estate footprint represents valuable distribution infrastructure. Investors must weigh whether the turnaround strategy unlocks this latent value or whether structural retail challenges—e-commerce disruption, dollar store saturation, wage inflation—overwhelm management's efforts to reinvent the business model.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Dollar Tree operates two distinct concepts: Dollar Tree stores (8,200 locations, ~$15B revenue) targeting suburban families with seasonal, party supplies, and household basics; and Family Dollar (7,800 stores, ~$15B revenue) serving lower-income urban/rural customers with more grocery-centric assortment. The business model relies on extreme operational efficiency—small store formats (8,000-12,000 sq ft), limited SKU count (7,000 vs. 100,000+ at supermarkets), opportunistic buying (purchasing overstock and closeouts at deep discounts), and minimal labor (5-8 employees per store). Dollar Tree's competitive moats include real estate locations in secondary markets with low rent (rural towns, strip malls), scale in procurement enabling direct imports and private label development, and value perception among price-conscious consumers. However, recent inflation pressured the fixed-price model, forcing the multi-price transition to maintain gross margins as input costs surged.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $30.6 billion in fiscal 2024, growing 5-7% annually through new stores and comp sales
  • •Profitability: Operating margin of 6.8%, below historical 8-10% due to Family Dollar drags and inflation impacts
  • •Same-Store Sales: Dollar Tree +4.5%, Family Dollar -0.5%, showing banner divergence
  • •Store Growth: Net 500+ annual openings, primarily Dollar Tree locations in underserved markets
  • •Cash Flow: $1.6 billion operating cash flow funding $600M capex and $1B debt reduction

Growth Catalysts

  • •Multi-Price Expansion: $3 and $5 zones driving basket growth and margin improvement as customers trade up
  • •Family Dollar Turnaround: Store closures and remodels eliminating underperformers, improving comp trajectory
  • •Consumables Penetration: Adding coolers and expanded food/beverage increasing trip frequency and ticket
  • •Real Estate Optimization: Relocating stores from C/D locations to higher-traffic A/B sites
  • •Economic Headwinds Beneficiary: Recession or income pressure driving consumers to value channels

Risks & Challenges

  • •Family Dollar Drag: Turnaround could fail, requiring massive impairments or full banner exit
  • •Price Point Confusion: Moving away from Everything's $1.00 simplicity may alienate core customers
  • •Wage Inflation: Minimum wage increases and labor shortages compressing margins in labor-intensive model
  • •E-commerce Vulnerability: Amazon and Walmart online penetration reducing traffic to physical stores
  • •Dollar Store Saturation: Industry overbuilding creating cannibalization, particularly in small markets

Competitive Landscape

Dollar Tree competes in the fragmented value retail market against Dollar General (19,000 stores, clear market leader), Walmart (Neighborhood Market format), and regional discount chains like Five Below. Dollar General's superior execution, better locations, and consumables focus have driven consistent market share gains. Dollar Tree historically differentiated through Everything's $1.00 simplicity and seasonal/party emphasis, while Family Dollar occupied the troubled middle ground between Dollar General and Walmart. The competitive dynamic intensified as big-box retailers added small-format stores and e-commerce expanded discount categories. Dollar Tree's path to competitive parity requires flawless Family Dollar turnaround and successful multi-price zone adoption without alienating value seekers. Rick Dreiling's track record running Dollar General provides credibility, though replicating that success at a different banner with structural challenges remains unproven.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Value investors seeking turnaround situations at beaten-down valuations (12x P/E)
  • ✓Defensive portfolios wanting recession-resistant consumer staples exposure
  • ✓Contrarian investors betting on management's ability to fix Family Dollar and optimize pricing
  • ✓Income-growth seekers (stock recently initiated modest dividend after years without payout)

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors seeking high revenue/earnings CAGR (mature business in saturated market)
  • ✗High-yield income seekers (recently initiated dividend yields only ~1%)
  • ✗Momentum investors (stock faces structural headwinds and turnaround uncertainty)
  • ✗ESG-focused portfolios concerned about low-wage labor practices and environmental impact

Investment Thesis

Dollar Tree merits a HOLD rating with SPECULATIVE BUY potential for turnaround investors at current valuation. The stock trades at just 12x earnings—significant discount to Dollar General's 18x—reflecting skepticism about Family Dollar recovery and multi-price strategy execution. Rick Dreiling's proven dollar store expertise provides credibility for the transformation, while early multi-price results exceed expectations. The defensive business model (40M weekly customer transactions, consumables focus) provides downside protection during recessions when trading down benefits value retailers. However, structural retail challenges, margin pressure from wages/costs, and competitive intensity from Dollar General limit upside. This is not a growth story but rather a value play on operational improvement unlocking earnings power. Patient investors willing to wait 2-3 years for Family Dollar turnaround and multi-price maturity may find attractive risk-reward at current 12x valuation, though execution risks remain material.

Conclusion

Position Dollar Tree as 2-3% allocation in value or defensive consumer sleeves for investors comfortable with turnaround risk. The stock will likely trade range-bound until Family Dollar shows sustainable improvement and multi-price zones prove margin-accretive. Consider accumulating below $65 when pessimism creates excessive discounts, maintaining through transformation execution (likely 2-3 years), and trimming above $85 if valuation approaches Dollar General parity without corresponding operational improvement. The defensive characteristics—recession beneficiary, essential low-price goods, massive store footprint—provide downside cushion, though upside requires flawless execution of Rick Dreiling's turnaround playbook.
Bull Case
$95 (35% upside)
Base Case
$75 (7% upside)
Bear Case
$55 (22% downside)

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