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Dow Inc (DOW) Stock

Dow Inc Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Dow Inc (DOW): The $32 Billion Chemicals Giant Yielding 9.86% in Cyclical Trough

Under CEO Jim Fitterling's leadership since 2018, Dow Inc. emerged from the DowDuPont mega-merger as a pure-play materials science company focused on high-margin performance materials and industrial solutions. The company's portfolio spans three segments: Packaging & Specialty Plastics (polyethylene films, elastomers), Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure (chlor-alkali, polyurethanes), and Performance Materials & Coatings (silicones, acrylics, dow epoxy systems). Dow's brands including DOWSIL™ silicones, STYROFOAM™ insulation, ELVALOY™ polymers, and VORAFORCE™ catalysts serve critical applications from semiconductor manufacturing to automotive lightweighting. The cyclical chemicals industry downturn pushed Dow's stock to $42 with nearly 10% dividend yield—levels not seen since COVID crash—as oversupply in polyethylene and weak European demand compressed margins. However, Fitterling's strategic pivot toward sustainable materials (circular plastics, bio-based feedstocks), decarbonization investments (Alberta carbon capture project), and capacity rationalization positions Dow to emerge from downturn with improved competitive positioning.

52-Week Range

$39.24 - $19.82

-40.27% from high · +18.26% from low

Avg Daily Volume

15,833,979

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

Forward P/E

13.61

PEG Ratio

0.54

Potentially undervalued

Price to Book

1.00

EV/EBITDA

10.85

EPS (TTM)

-$1.61

Price to Sales

0.43

Beta

0.78

Less volatile than market

How is DOW valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Valuation data is not available for this stock.
What is DOW's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 0.78, Dow Inc is less volatile than the overall market. This means when the market moves up or down by 10%, this stock typically moves less than 10% in the same direction. Lower beta stocks are often preferred by conservative investors seeking stability. The price-to-book ratio of 1.00 indicates the stock trades below its accounting value, which could signal value or distress.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

-2.77%

Operating Margin

1.91%

EBITDA

$3.51B

Return on Equity

-5.29%

Return on Assets

0.72%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-8.30%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

-73.30%

How profitable and efficient is DOW's business model?
Dow Inc achieves a profit margin of -2.77%, meaning it retains $-2.77 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 1.91% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at -5.29% and ROA at 0.72%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
What are DOW's recent growth trends?
Dow Inc's revenue declined by 8.30% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings decreased by 73.30% year-over-year, reflecting the bottom-line impact of business performance. These growth metrics should be evaluated against CHEMICALS industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$2.45

Dividend Yield

9.96%

Ex-Dividend Date

Nov 28, 2025

Dividend Date

Dec 12, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from DOW?
Dow Inc offers a dividend yield of 9.96%, paying $2.45 per share annually. This high yield exceeds 4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average of 1.5-2% and most investment-grade bonds. For income-focused investors, this represents an attractive cash flow opportunity, though high yields sometimes signal market concerns about sustainability. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Nov 28, 2025.
How reliable is DOW's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Dow Inc pays $2.45 per share in dividends against earnings of -$1.61 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of -152.17%. This conservative payout below 30% indicates excellent dividend safety with substantial room for future increases. The company retains most earnings for growth while still rewarding shareholders. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Dec 12, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$17.5B

Revenue (TTM)

$40.91B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$57.77

Shares Outstanding

710.77M

Book Value/Share

$24.68

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is DOW's market capitalization and position?
Dow Inc has a market capitalization of $17.5B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 710.77M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the CHEMICALS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does DOW's price compare to its book value?
Dow Inc's book value per share is $24.68, while the current stock price is $23.44, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.95. Trading below book value can indicate the market perceives challenges ahead, or it might represent a value opportunity if the assets are quality and earnings can recover. Value investors often screen for P/B ratios below 1.0. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$27.82

18.69% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

0

Buy

4

Hold

15

Sell

1

Strong Sell

0

How reliable are analyst predictions for DOW?
20 analysts cover DOW with 20% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $27.82 implies 18.7% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on DOW?
Current analyst recommendations:04 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Dec 13, 2025, 08:23 AM

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Dow Inc (DOW) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

In early 2024, Dow reported one of its most challenging quarters in recent history—operating EBITDA down 40% year-over-year as petrochemical margins collapsed and European energy costs remained elevated. For Jim Fitterling, this validated years of warnings about China overcapacity and the need for industry consolidation. Yet within this cyclical trough lies a classic contrarian setup: Dow trading at 0.8x book value with free cash flow still covering the 9.86% dividend, while chemical utilization rates approach cycle lows historically preceding supply rationalization. Investors seeking high-yield income with stomach for cyclical volatility face critical question: is this capitulation presenting generational entry point, or have structural headwinds (Chinese capacity additions, petrochemical oversupply, plastic regulation) permanently impaired Dow's earnings power?

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Dow operates integrated production complexes linking basic feedstocks (ethylene, propylene from cracked hydrocarbons or ethane) through chemical intermediates to higher-value specialty products. This vertical integration creates margin resilience—when crude oil prices spike, Dow's ethylene crackers running on cheaper natural gas feedstock gain advantage versus naphtha-based competitors. Revenue streams include commodity plastics (polyethylene resins sold to packaging converters), industrial chemicals (caustic soda, chlorine for water treatment and manufacturing), and performance materials (silicones commanding 2-3x margins of commodity polymers). Dow's competitive moats include scale economies (largest global ethylene capacity enabling lowest-cost production), integrated logistics (Gulf Coast complexes with pipeline and port access reducing transportation costs), technical expertise (silicone applications requiring decades of formulation knowledge), and switching costs (customer qualification processes for automotive/aerospace applications taking 12-24 months). However, these moats erode during supply gluts when commodity chemicals trade near cash costs.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $45 billion in 2024 (down from $57B peak in 2022), reflecting volume and pricing pressure
  • •Profitability: EBITDA margins compressed to 12% vs. 20% mid-cycle, driven by polyethylene oversupply
  • •Free Cash Flow: $2.8 billion FCF supporting $3.6B annual dividend (payout ratio ~130% through cycle trough)
  • •Dividend Yield: 9.86% at $42 share price, highest since 2020 crisis period
  • •Valuation: 13.6x forward P/E assumes earnings recovery; 0.8x book value reflects asset impairment concerns

Growth Catalysts

  • •Cyclical Recovery: Chemical utilization rates at 75% vs. 85% mid-cycle, capacity closures could tighten markets
  • •China Demand Normalization: Property market stabilization would restore 25% of global polyethylene consumption
  • •Circular Plastics Premium: Recycled polymer products (REVOLOOP™) commanding 15-20% price premiums
  • •Semiconductor Exposure: High-purity chemicals and silicones for chip manufacturing benefiting from fab buildout
  • •Energy Transition Materials: Specialty polymers for solar panels, batteries, wind turbine blades growing 2x GDP

Risks & Challenges

  • •Dividend Sustainability: 130% payout ratio unsustainable long-term, potential cut if EBITDA doesn't recover
  • •China Overcapacity: 30+ million tonnes of new polyethylene capacity starting 2024-2026 prolonging oversupply
  • •Plastic Regulation: Single-use plastic bans and EPR schemes increasing compliance costs, reducing demand
  • •Energy Cost Volatility: European operations face structural disadvantage versus U.S. shale gas-advantaged plants
  • •Cyclical Timing Risk: Recovery could take 2-3 years; investors face dead money while collecting dividend

Competitive Landscape

Dow competes in the fragmented global chemicals market against integrated majors (LyondellBasell, SABIC, ExxonMobil Chemical), regional players (Braskem in Americas, INEOS in Europe), and Chinese state-owned enterprises (Sinopec, PetroChina). Dow's competitive position varies by segment: commodity plastics (top-3 global market share but price-taker), chlor-alkali (North American cost leader via low-cost electricity contracts), silicones (global #1 with DOWSIL brand commanding premium to Wacker, Momentive). The industry's structural challenge: oversupplied markets favor the lowest-cost producers (Middle East with subsidized feedstocks, China with scale advantages), squeezing Western integrated producers like Dow. Recent capacity closures in Europe (Stade, Germany cracker) demonstrate Fitterling's willingness to rationalize assets, though Chinese capacity additions dwarf Western shutdowns. Dow's path to margin recovery requires either aggressive industry consolidation or prolonged demand growth absorbing excess capacity.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓High-yield income investors with cyclical risk tolerance willing to accept price volatility
  • ✓Contrarian value investors betting on mean reversion in cyclical trough
  • ✓Energy/materials sector specialists understanding chemical industry dynamics
  • ✓Long-term holders (3-5+ years) patient for recovery cycle to play out

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Conservative dividend investors requiring absolute dividend safety (payout ratio 130%)
  • ✗ESG-focused portfolios avoiding plastics and petrochemicals exposure
  • ✗Growth investors seeking revenue expansion (cyclical recovery, not structural growth)
  • ✗Short-term traders requiring near-term catalysts (recovery multi-year process)

Investment Thesis

Dow Inc. merits a HOLD rating with SPECULATIVE BUY consideration exclusively for contrarian income investors. The 9.86% dividend yield prices in significant pessimism—assuming EBITDA margins remain depressed and potential dividend cut. However, Dow's free cash flow of $2.8B provides some dividend coverage even in trough conditions, while management has communicated commitment to dividend as top capital allocation priority. The bull case requires three conditions: (1) chemical utilization rates recovering to 82-85% as demand normalizes, (2) industry capacity rationalization outpacing Chinese additions, (3) margin recovery to 16-18% EBITDA from current 12%. If all three occur, fair value approximates $60-65 (40-55% upside plus dividend), creating attractive asymmetric return profile. However, dividend cut risk is real—if EBITDA fails to recover by 2026, the $3.6B annual payout becomes unsustainable. This is NOT a widow-and-orphan dividend stock but rather a cyclical value play requiring sector expertise and risk tolerance. Position sizing critical: limit to 2-3% allocation given dividend uncertainty.

Conclusion

Position Dow as 2-3% allocation in high-yield/cyclical value sleeves for investors with materials sector expertise. The stock will remain volatile—expect $35-50 trading range until industry fundamentals clarify (likely 2026-2027). Consider accumulating below $38 when dividend yield exceeds 11%, maintaining strict position limits given dividend cut risk. The 9.86% yield compensates for wait, but investors must accept potential 20-30% dividend reduction if EBITDA margins don't recover to 16%+ by 2026. This is a calculated bet on cyclical recovery, not a safe income holding—treat accordingly with proper diversification and risk management.
Bull Case
$65 (55% upside)
Base Case
$48 (14% upside)
Bear Case
$30 (29% downside)

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