The Offshore Wind Debacle and Path Forward
Eversource's offshore wind disaster exemplifies utility overreach consequences. In 2021, the company committed $4B+ to three offshore wind projects (Revolution Wind, South Fork Wind, Sunrise Wind) alongside partner Ørsted, betting New England's aggressive renewable mandates would deliver premium returns. Reality intervened: inflation spiked construction costs 30-40%, interest rates doubled financing expenses, and power purchase agreements signed in 2018-2020 became unprofitable. CEO Joseph Nolan made the painful call: exit offshore wind entirely at $2B+ loss, sell stakes to Ørsted (2023), and refocus on regulated utilities. The market's punishment was severe—shares dropped 30% in 2023—but the exit was correct. Today's Eversource is simpler: 93% regulated earnings, $40B+ rate base earning 9-10% returns, and $23B capital plan driving 6-7% rate base growth through 2028.
Business Model & Competitive Moat
Eversource's moat is regulated monopoly status across New England's wealthiest territories. The company operates as sole provider through Connecticut Light and Power, NSTAR Electric and Gas (Massachusetts), and Public Service of New Hampshire, serving densely populated suburbs where customers have no alternative. Regulators allow 9-10% ROE on invested capital, with multi-year rate plans reducing regulatory lag. New England's unique energy challenges—no indigenous gas production, pipeline constraints, extreme cold requiring reliable heating—support premium infrastructure investment. Eversource earns returns on LNG facilities, grid hardening, and distributed generation integration unavailable to utilities in energy-abundant regions. However, New England also has America's highest electricity rates ($0.25-0.30/kWh vs. $0.12 national average), creating political pressure limiting rate case approvals.
Financial Performance
- •Revenue: $12B annually; 75% electric, 20% gas, 5% water distribution
- •Earnings: $1.4-1.5B net income ($4.00-4.25 EPS); 5-6% annual growth guided
- •Rate Base: $40B+ (2024), growing to $55B+ by 2028; $23B capital investment plan
- •Dividend: $2.88/share (5.1% yield), 60-65% payout ratio; 25+ year growth streak
- •Balance Sheet: $30B debt, 55% debt/cap; BBB+ credit rating (downgraded from A- post-wind exit)
Growth Catalysts
- •Grid Modernization: $15B+ investment in transmission upgrades, smart meters, distributed energy integration
- •New England Energy Security: LNG infrastructure, gas pipeline capacity addressing regional supply constraints
- •Electric Vehicle Infrastructure: Connecticut, Massachusetts leading EV adoption; charging network investment opportunities
- •Regulatory Relationship Rebuild: Offshore wind exit removed conflict; constructive rate cases expected 2025+
- •Rate Base Growth: $23B capital plan through 2028; mechanical 6-7% earnings growth from regulated returns
Risks & Challenges
- •Regulatory Scrutiny: High New England rates create political pressure; Massachusetts/Connecticut rate cases contentious
- •Credit Rating Pressure: BBB+ rating (post-downgrade) increases borrowing costs; limited financial flexibility
- •Storm Exposure: Nor'easters, hurricanes create restoration costs; 2021 Tropical Storm Isaias response criticized
- •Interest Rate Sensitivity: Utility valuations decline with rising rates; 5.1% yield competes with risk-free alternatives
- •Offshore Wind Overhang: Investor confidence damaged; proving reliability takes years
Competitive Landscape
Eversource competes for utility investor capital with regional peers National Grid (NGG, UK-listed, New England/New York), Avangrid (AGR, subsidiary of Iberdrola, Connecticut/Maine), and Northeast Utilities before Eversource merger. Among large U.S. utilities, peers include Duke Energy, Southern Company, and Exelon—all trading at 14-16x forward P/E versus Eversource's 13x. The discount reflects offshore wind damage: investors extrapolate management credibility concerns despite the strategic logic of refocusing on regulated utilities. Joseph Nolan's challenge is proving consistent execution over 2-3 years to close the valuation gap. Eversource's competitive advantage is New England's unique energy dynamics—pipeline constraints, heating demand, renewable mandates—creating investment opportunities unavailable in energy-abundant regions.
Who Is This Stock Suitable For?
Perfect For
- ✓Income investors seeking 5.1% yield at discounted utility valuation
- ✓Value investors betting offshore wind overhang closes over 2-3 years
- ✓New England residents wanting local utility exposure
- ✓Contrarian investors buying quality utilities at temporary discounts
Less Suitable For
- ✗Risk-averse investors uncomfortable with recent execution failures
- ✗Growth investors seeking double-digit appreciation
- ✗Credit-quality focused investors concerned about BBB+ rating
- ✗ESG investors disappointed by offshore wind exit
Investment Thesis
Eversource offers discounted regulated utility exposure through New England's largest energy provider. The 5.1% dividend yield—highest among major utilities—reflects offshore wind writedowns rather than operational deterioration. Core utilities generate $1.5B net income from 4.4 million customers with 93% regulated earnings. CEO Joseph Nolan's $23B capital plan through 2028 drives 6-7% rate base growth, supporting 5-6% annual EPS expansion and continued dividend increases.
The investment case is rehabilitation: investor confidence damaged by offshore wind requires consistent execution to restore. At 13x forward P/E (vs. 15-16x utility peers), successful rehabilitation implies 15-20% valuation upside plus 5.1% yield for 20%+ total return over 2-3 years. Risks include regulatory pushback on high New England rates and credit rating concerns. Suitable for income portfolios accepting near-term volatility for above-market yield and recovery potential.