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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Expeditors International (EXPD): The $16B Asset-Light Logistics Platform Navigating Post-Pandemic Normalization

CEO Jeffrey Musser runs the world's most profitable freight forwarder without owning a single cargo plane or container ship. Expeditors International's asset-light model buys space wholesale from carriers (airlines, shipping lines) and sells retail to 29,000+ customers needing goods moved globally—capturing spreads without capital intensity. The model shined during COVID-19: air freight rates 5x'd, ocean rates 10x'd, and Expeditors' $2.5B operating income (2022) doubled pre-pandemic levels. Then freight markets crashed. By 2024, ocean rates collapsed 80%, air rates normalized, and earnings reverted toward historical averages. At $110 (17x forward P/E), the stock prices in normalization but offers optionality: any supply chain disruption (Red Sea shipping crisis, China tensions, another pandemic) instantly reprices Expeditors' spread-capturing business model upward.

52-Week Range

$154.47 - $99.26

-1.79% from high · +52.84% from low

Avg Daily Volume

1,210,581

Latest volume

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

24.64

Near market average

Forward P/E

21.60

Earnings expected to grow

PEG Ratio

5.33

Potentially overvalued

Price to Book

8.99

EV/EBITDA

17.13

EPS (TTM)

$6.21

Price to Sales

1.86

Beta

1.14

Similar volatility to market

How is EXPD valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 24.64, which is near the market average of approximately 20, suggesting the market views it as fairly valued relative to its earnings. Looking ahead, the forward P/E of 21.60 is lower than the current P/E, indicating analysts expect earnings to grow over the next year. The PEG ratio of 5.33 indicates a premium valuation even accounting for growth.
What is EXPD's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.14, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is roughly as volatile as the market, moving in line with broad market trends. This moderate beta suggests the stock offers market-level returns without excessive volatility. The price-to-book ratio of 8.99 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

7.57%

Operating Margin

9.95%

EBITDA

$1.16B

Return on Equity

36.50%

Return on Assets

13.90%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-3.50%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

0.60%

How profitable and efficient is EXPD's business model?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. achieves a profit margin of 7.57%, meaning it retains $7.57 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of 9.95% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at 36.50% and ROA at 13.90%, the company generates strong returns on invested capital.
What are EXPD's recent growth trends?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s revenue declined by 3.50% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions. Earnings increased by 0.60% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth through improved margins. These growth metrics should be evaluated against INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS industry averages for proper context.

Dividend Information

Dividend Per Share

$1.50

Dividend Yield

0.99%

Ex-Dividend Date

Dec 1, 2025

Dividend Date

Dec 15, 2025

What dividend income can investors expect from EXPD?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. offers a dividend yield of 0.99%, paying $1.50 per share annually. This modest yield below 2% suggests the company prioritizes growth investments over current income. While the dividend provides some return, investors are likely attracted more by capital appreciation potential than income generation. To receive the next dividend, shares must be purchased before the ex-dividend date of Dec 1, 2025.
How reliable is EXPD's dividend for long-term investors?
The dividend sustainability can be assessed through the payout ratio - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pays $1.50 per share in dividends against earnings of $6.21 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 24.15%. This conservative payout below 30% indicates excellent dividend safety with substantial room for future increases. The company retains most earnings for growth while still rewarding shareholders. The next dividend payment is scheduled for Dec 15, 2025.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$20.8B

Revenue (TTM)

$11.17B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$81.46

Shares Outstanding

134.02M

Book Value/Share

$17.02

Asset Type

Common Stock

What is EXPD's market capitalization and position?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a market capitalization of $20.8B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 134.02M shares outstanding, the company's ownership is relatively concentrated. As a participant in the INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
How does EXPD's price compare to its book value?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s book value per share is $17.02, while the current stock price is $151.71, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 8.91. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$127.67

15.85% downside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

0

Buy

1

Hold

9

Sell

4

Strong Sell

3

How reliable are analyst predictions for EXPD?
17 analysts cover EXPD with 6% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The bearish sentiment could create opportunity if analysts are wrong. The consensus target of $127.67 implies -15.8% downside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
What is the Wall Street consensus on EXPD?
Current analyst recommendations:01 Buy, 9 Hold, 4 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment indicates concerns, but contrarian investors sometimes find opportunities when Wall Street is negative.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Dec 13, 2025, 08:26 AM

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Expeditors International (EXPD) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The Asset-Light Arbitrage Machine

Expeditors International built a $16B market cap without owning meaningful hard assets. CEO Jeffrey Musser (promoted 2021, 35-year company veteran) leads a business model elegant in simplicity: negotiate bulk rates with airlines and shipping lines, sell space to customers at retail prices, and capture the spread. When freight demand surges (e.g., COVID-19 e-commerce boom), rates spike and Expeditors' spreads expand geometrically. During 2021-2022, the company generated $2.5B operating income—double historical levels—as desperate shippers paid any price for container space. The inevitable normalization arrived: ocean freight rates collapsed from $20,000/container to $2,000, air freight fell 40% from peaks, and Expeditors' 2024 earnings reset toward $1.2-1.4B—still premium to pre-pandemic but far below boom levels.

Business Model & Competitive Moat

Expeditors' moat is IT systems, customer relationships, and operational consistency. The company's proprietary customs clearance and tracking systems process millions of shipments annually, integrating with customer ERP systems to become embedded in supply chains. Switching freight forwarders risks shipment delays, customs penalties, and data migration failures—friction protecting Expeditors' 29,000+ customer relationships. Operating margins (30%+ vs. 5-10% for asset-heavy carriers) reflect value-added services: customs brokerage, trade compliance, supply chain consulting. However, the model has limited operating leverage—Expeditors' spread percentage compresses when rates normalize, unlike carriers whose fixed costs create leverage on rate swings.

Financial Performance

  • •Revenue: $8.7B (2024), down 40% from $17B (2022 peak); normalizing toward $9-10B run rate
  • •Profitability: 30%+ operating margins sustained; $1.2-1.4B operating income (vs. $2.5B peak)
  • •Free Cash Flow: $1B+ annually; asset-light model requires minimal capex ($100M/year)
  • •Balance Sheet: Zero debt, $1.5B cash; pristine investment-grade profile
  • •Returns: 35%+ ROIC (down from 50%+ peak); still exceptional by industrial standards

Growth Catalysts

  • •Supply Chain Disruption Optionality: Red Sea crisis, China tensions, port strikes instantly reprice freight rates upward
  • •Global Trade Recovery: Destocking cycle ending; 2025-2026 inventory rebuild drives freight volumes
  • •Nearshoring/Friend-shoring: Supply chain reconfiguration creates complexity Expeditors monetizes through consulting
  • •Cross-Border E-Commerce: International e-commerce growing 15-20% annually; smaller shipments favor forwarder model
  • •Market Share Gains: Digital-first forwarders (Flexport) struggled; Expeditors' stability attracts customers seeking reliability

Risks & Challenges

  • •Freight Rate Dependence: Spread business compresses when rates normalize; limited pricing power in soft markets
  • •Volume Volatility: Global trade recession reduces shipments regardless of rates; GDP-sensitive business
  • •Digital Disruption: Flexport, Forto, and digital forwarders targeting tech-enabled freight with lower costs
  • •China Concentration: 25%+ of revenue tied to China-origin shipments; tariff escalation disrupts trade flows
  • •Carrier Consolidation: Fewer airlines/shipping lines reduces Expeditors' wholesale buying power

Competitive Landscape

Expeditors competes with global freight forwarders DHL (Deutsche Post subsidiary, largest globally), Kuehne + Nagel (Swiss, $30B revenue), DB Schenker (Deutsche Bahn), and DSV (Danish, post-GIL acquisition). Among U.S. competitors, C.H. Robinson (CHRW, primarily trucking) and digital startups Flexport and Convoy (bankrupt 2023) operate in adjacent markets. Expeditors' differentiation is profitability: 30%+ operating margins versus 5-10% for asset-heavy competitors. Jeffrey Musser's strategy emphasizes employee retention (low turnover, high tenure) and customer relationships over technology disruption—a bet that supply chain complexity favors experienced operators over app-based platforms.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓Cyclical investors buying logistics at freight rate troughs
  • ✓Quality-focused portfolios seeking zero-debt, high-margin industrial
  • ✓Supply chain disruption hedgers wanting optionality to rate spikes
  • ✓Dividend growth investors (1.3% yield, consistent increases)

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Growth investors requiring consistent double-digit appreciation
  • ✗Momentum traders (stock moves with freight rate cycles)
  • ✗Income-focused investors seeking 3%+ yields
  • ✗ESG investors concerned about global shipping emissions

Investment Thesis

Expeditors International offers asset-light logistics exposure at cyclical lows. The 17x forward P/E reflects post-pandemic freight normalization, but the business model—30%+ margins, zero debt, $1B+ free cash flow—remains intact. CEO Jeffrey Musser's conservative management and pristine balance sheet provide stability through cycles, while supply chain disruption optionality (Red Sea, China tensions) creates asymmetric upside when freight rates spike.

The investment case is cyclical patience: freight rates bottomed in 2024, inventory destocking ends in 2025, and global trade recovery rebuilds earnings toward $1.5B+ operating income. At $110, investors pay 17x for a high-quality industrial with demonstrated 35%+ ROIC through cycles. Suitable for portfolios accepting cyclical volatility for quality and optionality; not appropriate for investors requiring steady appreciation.

Conclusion

Expeditors is a HOLD/ACCUMULATE for quality-focused investors seeking logistics exposure at cyclical lows. The zero-debt balance sheet and 30%+ margins provide downside protection, while freight disruption optionality creates asymmetric upside. Position appropriately for cyclical volatility; suitable for diversified industrial allocations with 2-3 year horizons.
Bull Case
$145 (32% upside) - Supply chain disruption spikes rates, earnings recover to $1.8B, multiple re-rates to 20x
Base Case
$125 (14% upside) - Gradual recovery, earnings stabilize at $1.4B, dividends and buybacks
Bear Case
$90 (18% downside) - Global trade recession, rates compress further, earnings drop to $1B

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