Why Eli Lilly? Understanding the Investment Story
The Obesity Revolution
Eli Lilly stands at the epicenter of the greatest pharmaceutical gold rush since statins, with GLP-1 drugs addressing the global obesity epidemic affecting 1 billion people. Mounjaro generated $5.2 billion in Q2 revenue, up 68% year-over-year, while Zepbound delivered $3.38 billion, up 172%. Combined, these drugs will likely become the best-selling medicines in history by their third year on market.
The market opportunity defies comprehension. Analysts project the GLP-1 market reaching $150 billion annually by early 2030s, larger than the entire pharmaceutical industries of most countries. Lilly dominance stems from tirzepatide dual mechanism providing superior weight loss to competitors. While Novo Nordisk Ozempic grabbed headlines, Lilly drugs deliver better results with potentially fewer side effects.
The Oral Advantage
Orforglipron, Lilly oral GLP-1, achieved 12.4% weight loss in Phase 3 trials - a game-changer for the 90% of patients who avoid injections. As the first oral GLP-1 without food restrictions, orforglipron could capture $50 billion of the market by 2030. Lilly is three years ahead of competitors in oral development, with regulatory submission expected by year-end. Manufacturing advantages mean oral pills can scale without the injection pen constraints limiting current supply.
Valuation: Growth at a Reasonable Price
Despite the massive run-up, Lilly trades at 25.4 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.3 - suggesting significant undervaluation relative to growth. The company raised 2025 guidance to $60-62 billion in revenue with $21.75-23 in adjusted EPS, representing 30%+ growth. For a company revolutionizing chronic disease treatment, the valuation appears reasonable considering the total addressable market expansion ahead.
Opportunities for 2025 and Beyond
Manufacturing Moat
Lilly massive manufacturing investments create an underappreciated moat. While competitors struggle with supply, Lilly expanded capacity positions it to capture market share through availability alone. The company operational excellence in scaling complex biologics and pivoting to oral production demonstrates execution excellence. In pharmaceuticals, the best drug that patients cannot access loses to available alternatives.
Beyond Weight Loss
GLP-1 drugs show promise treating sleep apnea, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and even addiction. Each new indication expands the addressable market by hundreds of millions of patients. Lilly pipeline includes next-generation triple agonists potentially doubling weight loss efficacy. The company transformed from a diabetes specialist to the leader in metabolic disease, a market measured in trillions over coming decades.
Who Is This Stock For?
Perfect For
- ✓Growth investors seeking pharmaceutical exposure
- ✓Healthcare bulls believing in GLP-1 revolution
- ✓Long-term holders comfortable with volatility
- ✓Thematic investors focused on obesity epidemic
Less Suitable For
- ✗Value investors concerned about valuation
- ✗Risk-averse investors worried about competition
- ✗Short-term traders (high volatility)
- ✗Dividend-focused investors (low yield)
Investment Recommendation
Conclusion
Eli Lilly represents a generational investment opportunity as GLP-1 drugs reshape global healthcare. The combination of market leadership, oral drug advantage, manufacturing scale, and pipeline depth creates multiple competitive moats. While valuation has expanded, the PEG ratio suggests growth more than justifies the premium. The biggest risk is not competition but execution - can Lilly manufacture enough to meet insatiable demand? With management raising guidance repeatedly, execution appears excellent.