The Technology: Cell Towers in Orbit
AST SpaceMobile's approach differs fundamentally from Starlink, OneWeb, and other satellite internet providers. Those services require dedicated ground terminals (dishes, antennas) to receive signals. AST's satellites function as cell towers in space, broadcasting standard cellular signals (4G LTE and 5G) that ordinary smartphones can receive without any hardware modification. The key engineering challenge is building satellite antennas large enough and powerful enough to communicate with the tiny antennas inside consumer phones.
BlueBird 6, launched in December 2025, solved this with the largest commercial communications array ever put into orbit. The antenna unfolds in space to create an aperture large enough to maintain a signal link with standard phones on the ground, achieving peak data rates of 120 Mbps. This is not a text-only or emergency-only connection: 120 Mbps supports video streaming, video calls, and full broadband internet from a standard smartphone, anywhere within the satellite's coverage area.
The Business Model and Carrier Partnerships
AST SpaceMobile does not plan to sell directly to consumers. Instead, it partners with existing mobile carriers who lease satellite capacity to extend their network coverage into areas where they have no terrestrial infrastructure. AT&T and Verizon are testing partners in the US, with FCC authorization granted in January 2025. stc Group in Saudi Arabia signed a 10-year agreement with $175 million in prepayments. These carrier partnerships mean AST does not need to acquire customers individually; it plugs into existing carrier billing systems and subscriber bases.
The revenue model charges carriers for spectrum usage and bandwidth on a per-subscriber or per-gigabyte basis. For carriers, the value proposition is clear: covering rural areas, highways, disaster zones, and developing markets without building towers. For AST, each additional carrier partnership scales revenue across the same satellite constellation without proportional cost increases.
Financial Performance
- •Revenue Status: Pre-revenue; company is in satellite deployment and testing phase
- •Capital Raised: Over $2 billion to fund constellation buildout and operations
- •stc Group Deal: $175 million prepayment commitment over 10 years for Saudi Arabia and regional markets
- •Manufacturing Expansion: Facilities in Texas and Florida for next-generation BlueBird production
- •Satellite Constellation: 6 satellites in orbit; targeting 45-60 by end of 2026
- •FCC Authorization: Special Temporary Authority to test with AT&T and Verizon spectrum in the US
Growth Catalysts
- •Constellation Buildout: 45-60 satellites by end of 2026 would provide initial coverage capacity; each launch extends geographic reach and capacity for carrier partners
- •Commercial Service Launch: First commercial revenue expected once sufficient satellites are operational and carrier integrations complete; could begin in select markets in 2026
- •Government and Defense Contracts: Military applications for communications in remote and contested environments; US government interest in resilient satellite communications
- •Additional Carrier Deals: Every major carrier globally faces rural coverage gaps; each partnership adds revenue without additional satellite investment
- •Emerging Market Opportunity: 5 billion people globally lack reliable cellular coverage; direct-to-device from space bypasses the need for terrestrial tower buildout in developing countries
Risks and Challenges
- •Pre-Revenue Risk: No commercial revenue yet; the company is burning through $2B+ in raised capital while building the constellation
- •Technical Execution: Deploying and operating dozens of the largest commercial antennas ever put in orbit carries significant engineering risk; satellite failures would delay service
- •Competition From Starlink: SpaceX's direct-to-cell program with T-Mobile is testing satellite-to-phone connectivity using Starlink satellites; SpaceX has far more capital and launch capacity
- •Spectrum and Regulatory Complexity: Operating across multiple countries requires spectrum agreements with each nation's carriers and regulatory approvals from each country's telecom authority
- •Dilution Risk: Continued capital raises to fund satellite manufacturing and launches will dilute existing shareholders; path to self-funding depends on commercial revenue timeline
Competitive Landscape
SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-cell program is AST SpaceMobile's most formidable competitor. SpaceX has partnership with T-Mobile, thousands of satellites already in orbit, its own launch vehicles (reducing costs dramatically), and virtually unlimited access to capital. However, SpaceX's initial direct-to-cell offering is limited to text messaging with voice and data capabilities still in development, while AST's BlueBird satellites are designed for full broadband from the start.
Lynk Global and other smaller players are also pursuing direct-to-phone satellite communications, but at limited capability levels. Apple's Emergency SOS via satellite (using Globalstar) provides only emergency messaging, not broadband. AST's differentiation is its focus on full broadband speeds (120 Mbps) to standard phones, which if successfully scaled, would offer a more complete solution than any competitor currently provides.
Who Is This Stock Suitable For?
Perfect For
- ✓Speculative investors who believe space-based cellular broadband will become a global infrastructure layer
- ✓Those with high risk tolerance seeking early-stage exposure to a potentially transformative technology
- ✓Investors who believe AST's full-broadband approach has a lasting advantage over competitors' text-only or limited services
- ✓Long-term holders willing to wait 2-3 years for commercial revenue to materialize from carrier partnerships
Less Suitable For
- ✗Risk-averse investors (pre-revenue company with significant execution and competition risk)
- ✗Income investors (no dividend expected for many years; all capital goes to constellation buildout)
- ✗Value investors (valuation is based entirely on future potential, not current earnings)
- ✗Those who believe SpaceX's direct-to-cell program will dominate the market before AST can scale
Investment Thesis
AST SpaceMobile is attempting to build something that has never existed: a global satellite network that provides full broadband internet to every standard smartphone on Earth. The BlueBird 6 launch and successful antenna unfolding demonstrate that the core technology works. CEO Avellan's carrier partnership strategy (AT&T, Verizon, stc Group) provides a commercial path that does not require building a consumer brand or billing infrastructure.
The risk is proportional to the ambition. AST is pre-revenue, competing against SpaceX (which has more capital, more satellites, and its own rockets), and attempting to scale one of the most complex engineering systems ever deployed commercially. Each satellite launch carries technical risk, each carrier deal requires regulatory approval, and the capital needs are substantial. This is a venture-stage investment in a public market wrapper. If the constellation reaches scale and carrier partnerships generate revenue as planned, the addressable market of 5 billion people without reliable coverage creates extraordinary upside. If execution falters, the stock has limited downside protection.