The Company That Sees Everything (Classified)
John Mengucci can't discuss 85% of CACI's work—it's classified. What's public: CACI builds the systems that collect, analyze, and disseminate intelligence for U.S. national security. From SIGINT platforms intercepting adversary communications, to cyber tools defending critical infrastructure, to AI-powered analytics processing petabytes of data, CACI operates at the intersection of software, hardware, and deep domain expertise. The company's competitive advantage isn't technology alone—it's the combination of TS/SCI-cleared talent, proven execution on black programs, and relationships built over decades. Once embedded in a classified program, CACI's 90% renewal rate reflects switching costs: replacing contractors requires re-clearing personnel, re-architecting systems, and risking mission continuity.
Business Model & Competitive Moat
CACI operates on cost-plus and fixed-price contracts with 3-5 year durations. The moat: (1) Security clearances—obtaining TS/SCI takes 12-18 months, limiting competitor talent pools; (2) Domain expertise—CACI's teams understand classified requirements competitors can't even bid on; (3) Incumbent advantage—90% renewal rates as switching disrupts sensitive missions. Revenue is 70% DoD, 20% Intelligence Community, 10% other federal. Margins average 8-10% EBITDA, lower than commercial tech but stable and predictable.
Financial Performance
- •Revenue: $7.5B TTM growing 15% annually (6% organic + acquisitions)
- •EBITDA Margin: 10.5% with operating leverage as scale increases
- •Free Cash Flow: $450M annually supporting M&A and debt paydown
- •Backlog: $28B total ($11B funded) = 2.5 years of revenue visibility
- •Leverage: 3.8x net debt/EBITDA, elevated post-Azure acquisition but declining
Growth Catalysts
- •Defense Budget Growth: Pentagon requesting $850B+ for FY2025, up 5% YoY, with IT/cyber spending growing 8-10%
- •Great Power Competition: China/Russia threats driving demand for SIGINT, cyber, and space capabilities—CACI's core
- •Digital Modernization: DoD's Joint All-Domain Command & Control (JADC2) requiring cloud, AI, edge computing integration
- •Space Superiority: CACI-NSS acquisition positions for $15B+ annual space budget growth
- •M&A Pipeline: Fragmented $180B defense IT market enabling accretive bolt-on acquisitions
Risks & Challenges
- •Budget Uncertainty: Continuing resolutions and debt ceiling fights can delay contracts, hurting quarterly results
- •Customer Concentration: 95% revenue from U.S. government—policy shifts or budget cuts directly impact business
- •Security Clearance Delays: Workforce expansion constrained by 12-18 month clearance processing times
- •Protest Risk: Competitors can protest contract awards, delaying wins 6-12 months and creating uncertainty
- •M&A Integration: Aggressive acquisition pace (10+ deals in 5 years) risks execution missteps and culture clashes
Competitive Landscape
CACI competes with Booz Allen Hamilton (consulting + tech, $10B revenue), SAIC ($7B, similar IT focus), Leidos ($15B, broader portfolio), and General Dynamics IT ($10B, part of GD conglomerate). CACI differentiates through focus: while peers chase commercial or international work, CACI is pure-play U.S. national security. This specialization enables deeper relationships with Intelligence Community customers, where trust and clearances matter more than price. However, it also creates concentration risk—CACI cannot diversify away from federal budgets.
Who Is This Stock Suitable For?
Perfect For
- ✓Defensive investors seeking recession-resistant government revenue
- ✓Long-term holders (5+ years) comfortable with government contract cycles
- ✓Dividend growers willing to accept modest 0.5% yield for 10%+ annual increases
- ✓Investors bullish on defense spending amid geopolitical tensions
Less Suitable For
- ✗Income investors requiring high current yield (CACI pays 0.5%)
- ✗Growth investors seeking tech-like margins (8-10% EBITDA vs. 30%+ software)
- ✗Short-term traders (low volatility, moves slowly)
- ✗ESG-focused portfolios (defense work excludes from many ESG funds)
Investment Thesis
CACI offers defensive growth through government IT spending that rises regardless of economic conditions. While commercial tech companies face demand fluctuations, CACI's classified programs continue through recessions—national security doesn't pause for GDP contractions. The $28B backlog provides 2.5 years of revenue visibility, rare in contracting. At 18x earnings, CACI trades at a premium to Booz Allen (15x) and SAIC (14x) but justifies it through faster growth (15% vs. 8-10% peers) and operational leverage expanding margins. For patient investors, CACI compounds at 12-15% annually through contract wins, acquisitions, and margin expansion—not exciting, but consistent.