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Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) Stock

Rivian Automotive Inc Stock Details, Movements and Public Alerts

Rivian Automotive (RIVN): The $45,000 R2 SUV Could Change Everything for This Cash-Burning EV Startup

RJ Scaringe founded Rivian at age 26 with a thesis that electric trucks and SUVs would define the next era of automotive. Thirteen years later, his company has delivered roughly 130,000 vehicles across the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Amazon delivery vans. But Rivian's story in 2025 was about survival, not dominance: 42,247 deliveries, a $3.6 billion net loss (improving from $4.75 billion in 2024), and a cash position sustained by a $5.8 billion Volkswagen joint venture. The pivot point is the R2. Priced around $45,000, the compact SUV targets the volume market that Tesla's Model Y owns. R2 production starts first half 2026 at Rivian's Normal, Illinois plant, with deliveries accelerating in the second half. Scaringe expects 62,000-67,000 total deliveries in 2026. The Volkswagen partnership, which will deliver another $2 billion in 2026, validates Rivian's software platform as valuable intellectual property that Europe's largest automaker chose over building its own.

52-Week Range

$22.69 - $10.36

-32.70% from high · +47.39% from low

Avg Daily Volume

45,207,765

20-day average

100-day avg: 38,560,703

Fundamentals

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

Price to Book

4.82

EV/EBITDA

-1.96

EPS (TTM)

-$3.07

Price to Sales

4.08

Beta

1.77

More volatile than market

Q:How is RIVN valued relative to its earnings and growth?
Valuation data is not available for this stock.
Q:What is RIVN's risk profile compared to the market?
With a beta of 1.77, Rivian Automotive Inc is significantly more volatile than the market. For every 10% market move, this stock tends to move 18% in the same direction. Higher beta stocks offer greater potential returns but with increased risk. The price-to-book ratio of 4.82 shows investors value the company above its book value, which often reflects intangible assets or growth prospects.

Performance & Growth

Profit Margin

-67.70%

Operating Margin

-64.80%

EBITDA

$-2,800,999,936

Return on Equity

-65.00%

Return on Assets

-14.80%

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-25.80%

Earnings Growth (YoY)

0.00%

Q:How profitable and efficient is RIVN's business model?
Rivian Automotive Inc achieves a profit margin of -67.70%, meaning it retains $-67.70 from every $100 in revenue after all expenses. This relatively low margin suggests the company operates in a competitive environment or high-cost industry where profitability is challenging. The operating margin of -64.80% reveals how efficiently the company runs its core business operations before interest and taxes. With ROE at -65.00% and ROA at -14.80%, the company achieves moderate returns on invested capital.
Q:What are RIVN's recent growth trends?
Rivian Automotive Inc's revenue declined by 25.80% year-over-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. This contraction may reflect market headwinds, competitive pressures, or strategic transitions.0 These growth metrics should be evaluated against AUTO MANUFACTURERS industry averages for proper context.

Company Size & Market

Market Cap

$22.0B

Revenue (TTM)

$5.39B

Revenue/Share (TTM)

$4.54

Shares Outstanding

1.24B

Book Value/Share

$3.68

Asset Type

Common Stock

Q:What is RIVN's market capitalization and position?
Rivian Automotive Inc has a market capitalization of $22.0B, classifying it as a large-cap stock ($10B-$200B). Large-caps are typically industry leaders with established business models, offering a balance of stability and growth potential. They often provide dividend income and are core holdings in institutional portfolios. With 1.24B shares outstanding, the company's ownership is widely distributed. As a participant in the AUTO MANUFACTURERS industry, it competes with other firms in this sector.
Q:How does RIVN's price compare to its book value?
Rivian Automotive Inc's book value per share is $3.68, while the current stock price is $15.27, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.15. This high P/B ratio indicates significant intangible assets, strong brand value, or high growth expectations. Technology and consumer brand companies often trade at elevated P/B ratios due to intellectual property and competitive advantages not reflected on the balance sheet. As a common stock, this represents equity ownership with voting rights.

Analyst Ratings

Analyst Target Price

$17.60

15.26% upside potential

Analyst Recommendations

Strong Buy

3

Buy

6

Hold

11

Sell

4

Strong Sell

1

Q:How reliable are analyst predictions for RIVN?
25 analysts cover RIVN with 36% recommending buy/strong buy ratings. Analyst predictions have mixed reliability - studies show consensus rarely beats market returns consistently. The mixed views reflect uncertainty about the outlook. The consensus target of $17.60 implies 15.3% upside, but targets are often adjusted to follow price moves rather than predict them.
Q:What is the Wall Street consensus on RIVN?
Current analyst recommendations:3 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 11 Hold, 4 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. The neutral stance suggests uncertainty or fair valuation at current levels.Remember that analyst opinions often lag price movements and can be influenced by investment banking relationships.

Fundamentals last updated: Feb 15, 2026, 02:29 AM

Technical Indicators

RSI (14-day)

35.42

Neutral

50-Day Moving Average

$13.47

13.36% above MA-50

200-Day Moving Average

$13.22

15.51% above MA-200

MACD Line

-0.19

MACD Signal

0.09

MACD Histogram

-0.29

Bearish

Q:What does RIVN's RSI value tell investors?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for RIVN is currently 35.42, indicating the stock is showing bearish momentum (30-40 range). Selling pressure is evident but not extreme. This often occurs during pullbacks in uptrends or early stages of downtrends. Combined with the price being above the 50-day moving average, this shows mixed signals requiring careful analysis.
Q:How should traders interpret RIVN's MACD and moving average crossovers?
MACD analysis shows the MACD line at -0.19 below the signal line at 0.09, with histogram at -0.29. This bearish crossover indicates downward pressure. The 50-day MA ($13.47) is above the 200-day MA ($13.22), forming a golden cross pattern that typically signals a long-term uptrend. Price is currently above both MAs, confirming strength.

Indicators last updated: Oct 12, 2025, 12:38 AM

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Stock Analysis 2025: Complete Investment Guide

The R2 Bet

Rivian's R1 lineup proved the company could build premium electric trucks and SUVs that customers love. Reviews are strong, and owner satisfaction ranks among the highest in the industry. The problem was price. At $70,000+, the R1T and R1S compete in a niche that limits volume. Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, profitable per unit on a variable cost basis but nowhere near the scale needed to cover fixed costs.

The R2 changes the math. At $45,000, it enters the volume crossover segment dominated by Tesla's Model Y. CEO RJ Scaringe has designed R2 with a new electrical architecture that reduces material costs by roughly 45% compared to R1. Production begins on a single shift at Normal, Illinois in the first half of 2026, scaling to two shifts by year-end and three shifts in 2027. Scaringe warned that the ramp will be 'as fast as your slowest part,' setting realistic expectations after the painful R1 launch experience.

Business Model and Competitive Position

Rivian sells consumer vehicles (R1T, R1S, upcoming R2/R3) and commercial delivery vans (EDV) for Amazon. The Volkswagen joint venture creates a third revenue stream: licensing Rivian's software-defined vehicle architecture and electrical platform to VW Group, which will use it across its Audi, Porsche, VW, and Scout brands.

The competitive advantage is software. Rivian's in-house developed vehicle operating system controls everything from battery management to over-the-air updates to autonomous driving features. Volkswagen, with over $100 billion in annual revenue and its own engineering army, chose to license Rivian's software rather than develop its own. That validation is significant. The software platform generates licensing revenue while Rivian's consumer vehicles generate hardware revenue, creating a dual business model.

Financial Performance

  • •2025 Deliveries: 42,247 vehicles (R1T, R1S, EDV combined)
  • •Net Loss: $3.6B in 2025, improved from $4.75B in 2024
  • •2026 Delivery Guide: 62,000-67,000 vehicles including initial R2 production
  • •2026 Loss Forecast: Adjusted pre-tax loss $1.8B-$2.1B, roughly in line with 2025
  • •VW Cash Inflows: $2B expected in 2026 as part of $5.8B joint venture
  • •CapEx: $1.95B-$2.05B in 2026 for R2 production line and capacity expansion

Growth Catalysts

  • •R2 Launch: $45,000 price point opens the mainstream crossover market; 45% material cost reduction vs. R1 architecture
  • •VW Software Revenue: $5.8B partnership providing cash and validating Rivian's software platform as licensable IP
  • •R3 Pipeline: Smaller, more affordable vehicle announced for production after R2 ramp, further expanding addressable market
  • •Amazon Delivery Expansion: EDV fleet growing as Amazon electrifies last-mile delivery; contracted for 100,000 vans
  • •Gross Margin Improvement: R2's lower bill of materials and manufacturing efficiencies should drive toward positive gross margins

Risks and Challenges

  • •Cash Burn: $3.6B net loss in 2025 with $1.8B-$2.1B expected in 2026; profitability remains years away without additional financing or VW payments
  • •R2 Execution Risk: Manufacturing ramps are inherently difficult; any delays or quality issues would pressure already-thin financial margins
  • •Tesla Competition: Model Y dominates the $45K crossover market with established manufacturing scale, Supercharger network, and brand recognition
  • •EV Market Slowdown: U.S. EV adoption rate has decelerated; consumer hesitancy around charging infrastructure and resale values persists
  • •Capital Market Dependence: Rivian may need additional funding if the R2 ramp is slower than planned; dilution risk is real

Competitive Landscape

Tesla is the primary competitor across every segment. Model Y outsells the entire EV market combined in the U.S. In trucks, Ford's F-150 Lightning has scale advantages, though it has struggled with profitability. GM's Equinox EV targets the $33,000 price point below R2. Hyundai/Kia's IONIQ lineup competes on value and design. Chinese automakers BYD and NIO represent international competitive threats, though they are not yet significant in the U.S. market.

Rivian's differentiation is design, software, and the adventure brand positioning. The vehicles appeal to outdoor-oriented buyers who want capability (off-road, towing) with EV efficiency. The VW partnership provides a unique revenue stream that no other EV startup has: technology licensing income from one of the world's largest automakers.

Who Is This Stock Suitable For?

Perfect For

  • ✓High-risk growth investors betting on Rivian's R2 as a volume catalyst
  • ✓EV sector enthusiasts who believe Rivian's software advantage will win long-term
  • ✓Speculative portfolio positions willing to accept years of losses before potential profitability
  • ✓Investors who view the VW partnership as de-risking validation of Rivian's technology

Less Suitable For

  • ✗Income or value investors (no dividend, no earnings, no near-term profitability path)
  • ✗Risk-averse portfolios (substantial cash burn, capital raise risk, execution uncertainty)
  • ✗Investors uncomfortable with EV market cyclicality and adoption pace uncertainty
  • ✗Those who prefer profitable auto manufacturers (Toyota, GM, Ford offer EV exposure with earnings)

Investment Thesis

Rivian at $17 is a speculative bet on the R2 launch and RJ Scaringe's ability to execute a volume manufacturing ramp. The 45% material cost reduction on R2 should improve gross margins substantially compared to R1. The VW partnership provides both cash ($2B in 2026) and strategic validation. If R2 achieves meaningful volume and Rivian reaches positive gross margins, the stock has significant upside from current depressed levels.

The downside is straightforward: manufacturing ramps are hard, cash is burning, and Tesla owns the market Rivian wants to enter. Every quarter of delay costs hundreds of millions. The EV market is also facing adoption headwinds that affect all manufacturers. Rivian has a compelling product and validated technology, but turning that into a profitable business remains the central challenge. This is a speculative position that should be sized accordingly.

Conclusion

Rivian is a high-risk, high-reward EV play with a clear catalyst in the R2 launch. The stock is priced for significant skepticism, which creates asymmetric upside if execution goes well. Position size is critical: this should represent a small, speculative allocation rather than a core holding. The R2 production ramp in H2 2026 will be the key proof point.
Bull Case
$32 (83% upside) - R2 ramp succeeds, deliveries exceed 80K in 2026, gross margins turn positive, VW deal expands
Base Case
$20 (15% upside) - R2 launches on schedule but ramps slowly, 62-67K deliveries achieved, losses narrow modestly
Bear Case
$8 (54% downside) - R2 delays or quality issues, cash burn accelerates, dilutive capital raise required

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